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Climate Risks: Assessment and Management in Agriculture Management in Agriculture SSelvaraju Ramasamy l j R Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO, Rome Outline • • • • • • • Climate risk management – relevance in the context of resilience building and adaptation A risk Management framework Reducing risks and bridging yield gaps d i ik d b id i i ld Improving decision support systems Data tools and methods for application Data, tools and methods for application Strengthening institutional and local capacities Conclusions and recommendations Transforming uncertainty into risks towards building resilience towards building resilience Better informed farm decision making • Uncertainty U t i t • randomness with unknown probabilities • Risk Ri k • • randomness with known probabilities Risks are largely location and context specific; product of hazard and ifi d fh d d vulnerability • Risk Management • The systematic processes of identifying, analysing and responding to risks Well informed d i i decision supportt services Improved and Resilient Livelihoods Well integrated policy li development Adaptation to long‐term changes starts with g g y managing climate variability • • Effective management of climate risks on Effective management of climate risks on shorter‐time scales • Contributes to manage baseline problems • Contributes to current development C ib d l priorities and reduces vulnerability (win‐ win opportunity) • Matches with shorter planning horizons of M h ih h l i h i f the farmers Uncertainties associated with climate change projections and impacts j ti di t Comprehensive strategy for building p resilience and adaptation Reducing Vulnerability (Reducing underlying y g causes of vulnerabilities) Managing Risks (Apply climate information in different time scales into assessment of risks and decision making) Enhancing Resilient Adaptation (Help decision makers at different levels to develop adaptation strategies) A risk Management framework A Risk Management Framework Assessment 1. Participatory and experiential learning Assessing current and future climate impacts, risks and vulnerabilities Monitoring and evaluation; Integration into policy and replication CRM Implementing adaptation practices and demonstrations 2. Cross-sectoral Planning for adaptation and preparing localized impact outlooks Prioritizing local coping strategies and adaptation practices 3. Building on existing systems 4. Integrating short-term and long-term options 5. Cross-cutting 5 C oss cutt g priorities (gender, capacity building, coordination, communication and partnerships) Reducing risks and bridging yield gaps Managing Risks of Full Range of Variability Climate (rainfall) Crrisis Hard dship Missed op pportunity Hard dship • Risks of climate extremes on either side of the distribution • Extremes of dry and wet and associated impacts Missed opportunities due to risk averse conservative strategies of decision conservative strategies of decision makers • Low input during normal and good seasons Crrisis • Probabiliity density Source: World Development Report, 2008. Notes: Number of plots in parentheses. Open pollinated improved varieties in all cases except Nigeria, which uses hybrids. Data for 2001 for Ethiopia, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Uganda; 2002 for Malawi; and an average of 2001, 2002, and 2004 for Mali. Contribution of climate services is crucial • Cli Climate knowledge at all time scales: k l d ll i l • • • • Climate change to understand the trend and alter systems level decisions (cropping or grazing?) S Seasonal climate information to make strategic decisions (crop type, l li t i f ti t k t t i d ii ( t marketing, forward selling, livestock herding rate etc) Intraseasonal forecasts to schedule tactical operations (E.g. Fertilizer, water and other adjustable inputs ) water, and other adjustable inputs.,) Weather forecasts for the day to day operations Demand ‐ Supply mismatch • Demand for climate information is diverse: – localized, timely and easily understandable – diverse cropping systems and decision cycles – Suitable S i bl for f user needs d –Institutions, I i i Ag. A service i providers, irrigation managers, input suppliers, market intermediaries, local cooperatives, microfinancing, farmers, fisherman, livestock herders • Supply is often constrained by insufficient data and resolution – information is ggeneral,, data and technical terms not easy to understand – Narrow, specific and precise information – scales of climate outlooks and local agriculture decision making Reaching the most vulnerable • Pilot experiences p ((Ongoing g g and recently completed FAO projects) – – – – – – – Vietnam – Northern Mountain Region Nepal – Mid hills and Terai The Philippines – Bicol region Jamaica – Drought prone uplands Bolivia – ENSO induced drought and floods P Peru – High Hi h altitude l i d small ll holders h ld South Africa – Emerging farmers • Key K interventions i t ti – Strengthening/upgrading local observation networks – Capacity building – Interpretation and development of customized information products – Communication to end users I Improving decision support systems i d ii t t Precipitation Indices and Crop Yield Forecasting Agriculturally relevant precipitation indices (deviation from normal, water stress, agriculture season length (beginning and end) etc.,) Provides continuous information on value added variables relevant to decision Provides continuous information on value added variables relevant to decision making at the regional and national level Analysis of meteorological and climatic data allows providing near real‐time information about the crop state, in quality and quantity, with the possibility of information about the crop state, in quality and quantity, with the possibility of early warning 10-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL (mm) - 3rd dekad September 2011 Scenario Based Risk Typologies and Indicative Optimal Strategies in agriculture Frequen ncy High Resource protection and Sustainable natural resource management Farm level risk insurance,, safetyy nets, risk sharing mechanisms Preparedness to save lives and livelihoods and rehabilitation Emergency relief and rehabilitation Enterprise diversification and risk coping mechanisms Preparedness to save lives and livelihoods; promote alternate livelihood activities Catastrophe risk insurance Moderate Low Very Low Optimal use of resources Maximizingg input p use efficiency Minor Strengthening social capital and community it networks t k Serious Severity Alternate li lih d livelihood options Extensive Emergency response and rebuilding livelihood resources catastrophe ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Medium Term (5 –10 years) Warning Systems (MTWS) • The The MTWS is intended to fill the gap between seasonal MTWS is intended to fill the gap between seasonal – scale scale assessments and long‐term impact projections • Identify the future Areas of Concerns (AOCs) and likely hotspots of vulnerabilities and sensitivities vulnerabilities and sensitivities Coping with a changing climate: Considerations for Adaptation and Mitigation in Agriculture (FAO, 2009) Humanitarian response: Climate services for reducing risks i k and d protecting t ti livelihoods li lih d Emergencies are on the rise - especially sudden onset disasters and series of low and high rainfall extreme events Need based early warning systems have important implications • mobilization of resources needed to prepare for, and respond to, emergencies in order to save lives and protect livelihood systems • planning for mitigation measures as part of short term responses to build resilience against future i impacts t Data, Tools and Methods for Data Tools and Methods for Assessment Livelihood analysis, vulnerability and risk mapping • Livelihood analysis interprets climate related hazards and builds on local strategies. • Livelihood analysis proposes to develop risk and vulnerability and risk maps • Provide advance information about the livelihood baseline and their vulnerability to weather and climate phenomenon. Climate Data • • • • Synoptic and agrometeorological stations in developing countries are thin and declining For example, there are just over 1150 World Weather Watch stations in Africa giving a density of 1/26 000 km2 S Several l existing i ti station t ti data d t remain i paper based and are inaccessible to users Efforts need to be strengthened to fill the gaps and increase the resolution • spatial interpolation to fill the missing data • proxy measurements using satellites • Rainfall Estimation Linking g climate data analysis y tools and livelihood approaches • Climate information Cli i f i systems, data d bases, b hazard h d specific ifi early l warnings, impact assessment tools are well developed over the years • Livelihood based bottom up approaches brings the social aspects and local perceptions about the climate impacts and local coping strategies • The livelihood based integrated impact assessment provides a basis for prioritizing livelihood strategies and institutional support pp Strengthening Institutions and Local g g Networks Farmers social capital Social cohesion (e.g. community networks, local institutions, norms and relationships) is critical for managing climate risks • Providing P idi credible dibl information i f ti to t farmers f as a group can motivate ti t for pro-active decision making • Local networks shape the farmers social interactions leading to b tt participatory better ti i t decisions d i i Farmers knowledge sharing mechanisms relevant to local context is the key for f effective ff communication off value added climate information • Farmer field schools integrating climate and weather information • Farmer participatory climate workshops • Innovative Information and Communication Technology (e.g. mobile networks etc.) Strengthening Institutional and Technical capacities p National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) understanding the needs of agriculture support services and farmers development of weather and climate information products Agricultural Support services and Community Based Organizations development of contingency plans improving impact data collection, monitoring and analysis, developing de e op g impact pact out outlooks oo s a and d management a age e t a alternatives te at es considering local needs communication of information and receiving feedback Conclusions Climate is one of the several factors shaping the risk management strategies management strategies Managing full range of climate variability (managing g g g y( g g risks and opportunities) Agriculture support services are well placed to A i lt t i ll l d t contribute to risk management However, number of areas need urgent attention – data, tools, approaches Thank you