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Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey in
July 2013
Ifo Business Climate for Saxony
Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey for July 2013
Business Climate in Saxony in July 2013:
Saxon Economy Starts Second Half of 2013 with Fresh Impetus
Ifo Business Climate for Industry and Trade
120
Index 2005=100, seasonally adjusted
Germany
115
110
106.9
106.2
103.9
Eastern Germany
105
100
95
90
Saxony
85
80
2002
2003
2004
Source: Ifo Business Survey.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
7/2013 ©
The Ifo Business Climate Index for German trade and industry rose for the third time
in succession in July. The climate indicators for the Eastern German states overall,
as well as for Saxony, have improved. Saxon companies are fractionally more satisfied with their current business situation than last month. Moreover, they are no
longer as pessimistic about future business developments as in June.
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Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey in
July 2013
Employment Barometer for Saxony
The economic indicators for the Saxon labour market also continued to improve. The
Ifo Employment Barometer for Saxon trade and industry rose in July. This was due to
less unfavourable employment perspectives for Saxon construction. By contrast, employment expectations in both manufacturing and distribution deteriorated overall. .
Ifo Employment Barometer for Saxony
115
Index 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted
110
105
100
July
2013
95
90
85
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Ifo Business
2010
2011
2012
2013
7/2013 ©
Manufacturing: Optimism About Future Business
The business climate in Saxon manufacturing remained unchanged in July. The
manufacturers surveyed assessed their current business situation slightly less positively, but expect it to improve over the rest of the year. The six-month business outlook indicator is now positive again. In line with these developments, the Saxon
manufacturers surveyed also expect positive impulses from exports. Although the
average, seasonally-adjusted machinery capacity utilisation was fractionally lower
than in April, an increase in the average order backlog signals positive developments
in the future. Employment expectations were slightly lower.
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Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey in
July 2013
Construction: Machinery Capacity Utilisation Exceeds Average
After last month’s clear decline in the climate indicator, the business climate in Saxon
construction brightened clearly in July. This was mainly due to survey participants’
expectations of the future. Overall, they expect their business to develop favourably
in the second half of 2013. Although the Saxon contractors surveyed no longer assess their current business situation as positively as in June, assessments of the current situation remain at a very high level historically. The same applies to average
and seasonally-adjusted machinery capacity utilisation. At 77 % this figure is significantly higher than the long-term average (67.5 %). Moreover, the personnel plans of
Saxon constructors are more optimistic than last month.
Distribution: Turnover Situation Worse Than Last Year
Saxon distribution was characterised by different developments at the two levels of
trade in July. While the business climate in wholesaling brightened considerably in
July, the underlying economic sentiment in Saxon retailing deteriorated. According to
reports by wholesalers and retailers, their overall turnover is clearly lower than last
month.
Business Climate for Saxony by Sector
For comparison: GDP growth rate in Saxony
5
GDP growth rate (%)
Business climate, seasonally adjusted, averaged
40
4
30
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
-10
-1
-20
-2
-30
GDP growth rate a)
-3
-40
Businsess services b)
Manufacturing
-4
-50
Construction
Trade
-5
-60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
a) 2013: Ifo Economic Forecast (July 2013); b) Based on Creditreform Survey.
Source: Ifo Branch Dresden, Ifo Business Survey, Creditreform Dresden, Working group "VGR der Länder".
2012
2013
7/2013 ©
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Regional results of the Ifo Business Survey in
July 2013
Development of selected economic activity indicators for manufacturing, construction as well as
wholesaling and retailing in Saxonya
Saxony
July 13
For comparison:
Eastern
German
Statesc
Saxony
Germany
June 13
July 12
July 13
Manufacturing
Demand situation b
5.3
b
-3.6
-1.8
-1.2
2.0
-4.3
-2.7
-11.5
1.8
3.1
-6.9
-6.2
-9.9
0.1
-4.3
3.7
2.9
-3.3
4.7
1.8
Order stocks in months
3.1
3.1
2.6
2.9
3.0
Equipment utilisation in %
76.9
77.3
72.0
78.2
74.4
-3.6
-13.5
-14.9
-4.4
-1.7
-6.2
-6.1
-9.3
-8.2
-6.7
Turnover vis-à-vis previous yearb
-41.0
-59.0
-7.0
-11.0
0.0
Order plansb
-16.9
-19.3
-24.0
-1.4
-6.1
23.7
22.8
15.5
24.6
6.1
-51.0
-25.0
16.0
-36.0
-12.0
-36.3
-25.6
-13.5
-28.3
-7.0
6.5
9.5
6.5
20.0
13.3
Production plans
Staff numbers – expectations
b
Selling prices – expectationsb
Construction
Staff numbers – expectationsb
Building prices – expectations
b
Wholesaling
Selling prices – expectations
b
Retailing
Turnover vis-à-vis previous yearb
Order plans
b
Selling prices – expectations
b
a) Seasonally adjusted values (Exception: Information on turnover vis-à-vis previous year). – b) Balances of the percentages of positive and negative survey responses. – c) Eastern German states including east Berlin.
Source: Ifo Business Survey.
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