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Development Lessons from the Past
for the Future
Spain is not Uganda and
the Past is not the Future
…
Response to Stuart Corbridge by
Prof. Colin Lewis, Economic
History, LSE – Panel Respondent
Responding to Professor Stuart
Corbridge
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Some Historical Data/Indicators
Exploring (‘explaining’) the Data
Engaging with Professor Corbridge’s Agenda
States and Institutional Change
Late Development or Late Industrialisation
Growth: GDP p/c (U$S 1985)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
USA
Jp
Ch
SA
Bz
1700
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Growth: GDP (% an.av.)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
'EU'
USA
LatAm
Japan
China
India
Africa
182070
191350
19732010
Share of World GDP (by country): back
to the future?
Share of World GDP (by region):
‘convergence’?
‘Explaining’ or Exploring the Data: History,
Institutions and Institutional Change
• Learning from Development Studies and History
• Why are some countries and regions richer/poorer
than others?
• Can ‘less developed’ countries learn from ‘more
developed countries’ …?
• Geography, Institutions, Shocks & Luck
Engaging with Professor Corbridge’s Agenda
History, Institutions and Institutional Change:
virtuous circle or vicious cycle?
Democratic
Order
Disorder
Disorder
Authoritarian
Order
Authoritarian
Order
History, Institutions and Institutional Change: virtuous
circle or vicious cycle? Examples from Europe & Asia
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“Glorious & Bloodless Revolution” 1688
Property Rights
Bank of England
Construction of Modern Fiscal State
Debt & the Royal Navy & Trade &
Industrial Growth
Importing a King & Restructuring Institutions
from Within
Japan is
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“Black Ships” and the Meiji
Restoration 1852-4 & 1868
Bureaucratic centralisation
‘Land reform’ and tenancy rights
Societal restructuring
Education & innovation
War and industrialisation
Restoring an Emperor & Importing
(some) Institutions
not England
History, Institutions and Institutional Change: virtuous
circle or vicious cycle? Examples from Latin America, c.
1910
• Growth Shock
• Societal
Diversification/Social
protest
• Accommodation or Disorder
• Mexico (1910) Revolution:
intra-elite discord +
exogenous protest (peasant
protest & urban unrest)
• the Argentine (1912):
‘reform from within’ and
‘incorporation within the
system’
History, Institutions and
Institutional Change?
• Shocks: endogenous or exogenous
• Shocks as challenges and opportunities:
response - virtuous circle or vicious spiral
• Institutions are endogenous
• Institutions may be imported but cannot be
exported
Industrialisation as Institutional Change:
Industrialisation as Development?
• ‘For real and sustained development, there is no
substitute for industrialisation’
Patrick O’Brien Industrialisation: critical perspectives on the world
economy (1999) vol I, p.xiv
• ‘ … a more equal distribution of income raises the
probabilility of industrial success for a host of
reasons related to class struggle, worker motivation,
expected returns to investment in education, and
other micro and macro variables.’
Alice Amsden ‘A Theory of Government Intervention in Late
Industrialization’ Putterman & Reuschemeyer State and Market in Development (1999) p.73 The EAsian model/nexus
Welfare & Institutions: Life
Expectancy: ‘convergence’?
80
70
60
DevEcn
E Asia
S&SEA
LatAm
SSAf
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1985
2020
Welfare & Human Happiness Index:
Happiest/Least Happy
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2011
Nor
Aus
Neth
USA
NZ
Can
Ire
Ger
Swe
Gui
CAR
Sleo
BuFaso
Development Lessons from the Past for the
Future: what is it all about?
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Learning what not to do?
Learning how and what (‘institutions’) to ‘import’
Observing to ‘catch up’?
Growth can reduce poverty, but only development delivers
equity OR the market can reduce poverty but only the state
delivers equity?
• Leaving the last word to Marshall: democracy <> citizenship
<> welfare <> capitalism = equality of opportunity and
equitable distribution of wealth