Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Lec 18 Nov 12 Probability – definitions and simulation (Discrete) Sample space Experiment: a physical act such as tossing a coin or rolling a die. Sample space – set of outcomes. Coin toss Sample Space S = { head, tail} Rolling a die Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Tossing a coin twice. Sample space S = {(h,h), (h,t), (t,h), (t,t)} Events and probability Event E is any subset of sample space S. You flip 2 coins Sample space S = {(h,h), (h,t), (t,h), (t,t)} Event: both tosses produce same result E = {(h,h), (t,t)} Prob(E) = |E|/ |S| In the above example, p(E) = 2/4 = 0.5 Question: what is the probability of getting at least one six in three roles of a die? Bernoulli trial Bernoulli trials are experiments with two outcomes. (success with prob = p and failure with prob = 1 – p.) Example: rolling an unloaded die. Success is defined as getting a role of 1. p(success) = 1/6 Random Variable Random variable (RV) is a function that maps the sample space to a number. E.g. the total number of heads X you get if you flip 100 coins Another example: RV Keep tossing a coin until you get a head. The RV n is the number of tosses. Event = { H, TH, TTH, TTTH, … } n(H) = 1, n(TH) = 2, n(TTH) = 3, … etc. Common Distributions Uniform X: U[1, N] X takes values 1, 2, …, N PX i 1 N E.g. picking balls of different colors from a box Binomial distribution X takes values 0, 1, …, n n i n i P X i p 1 p i N coin tosses. What is the prob. That there are exactly k tails? Conditional Probability P(A|B) is the probability of event A given that B has occurred. Suppose 6 coins are tossed. Given that there is at least one head, what is the probability that the number of heads is 3? Definition: p( A B) p(A|B) = p( B) Baye’s Rule If X and Y are events, then p(X|Y) = p(Y|X) p(X)/p(Y) Useful in situation where p(X), p(Y) and p(Y|X) are easier to compute than p(X|Y). Independent events Definition: X and Y are independent if P X x Y y P X x P Y y Monty Hall Problem You're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You want to pick the car. You pick a door, say No. 1 The host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. Do you want to pick door No. 2 instead? Host reveals Goat A or Host reveals Goat B Host must reveal Goat B Host must reveal Goat A Monty Hall Problem: Bayes Rule Ci : the car is behind door i, i = 1, 2, 3 P Ci 1 3 Hij : the host opens door j after you pick door i i j 0 0 jk P H ij Ck ik 1 2 1 i k , j k Monty Hall Problem: Bayes Rule continued WLOG, i=1, j=3 P C1 H13 P H13 P H13 C1 P C 1 P H13 1 1 1 C1 P C1 2 3 6 Monty Hall Problem: Bayes Rule continued P H13 P H13 , C1 P H13 , C2 P H13 , C3 P H13 C1 P C1 P H13 C2 P C2 1 1 1 6 3 1 2 16 1 P C1 H13 12 3 Monty Hall Problem: Bayes Rule continued 16 1 P C1 H13 12 3 1 2 P C2 H13 1 P C1 H13 3 3 You should switch! Continuous Random Variables What if X is continuous? Probability density function (pdf) instead of probability mass function (pmf) A pdf is any function f x that describes the probability density in terms of the input variable x. Probability Density Function Properties of pdf f x 0, x f x 1 Actual probability can be obtained by taking the integral of pdf E.g. the probability of X being between 0 and 1 is P 0 X 1 1 0 f x dx Cumulative Distribution Function FX v P X v Discrete RVs FX v vi P X vi Continuous RVs FX v v f x dx d FX x f x dx Common Distributions Normal X N , 2 x 1 exp , x 2 2 2 f x E.g. the height of the entire population 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 f(x) 2 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 x 1 2 3 4 5 Moments Mean (Expectation): E X Discrete RVs: E X vi P X vi v i Continuous RVs: E X Variance: V X E X Discrete RVs: V X 2 xf x dx vi P X vi 2 vi Continuous RVs: V X x 2 f x dx Properties of Moments Mean E X Y E X E Y E aX aE X If X and Y are independent, Variance E XY E X E Y V aX b a 2V X If X and Y are independent, V X Y V (X) V (Y) Moments of Common Distributions Uniform X U 1, , N Binomial X Bin n, p 2 np np Mean ; variance Normal X Mean 1 N 2 ; variance N 2 1 12 N , 2 Mean ; variance 2 Simulating events by Matlab programs Write a program in Matlab to distribute the 52 cards of a deck to 4 people, each getting 13 cards. All the choices must be equally likely. One way to do this is as follows: map each card to a number 1, 2, …, 52. Generate a random permutation of the array a[1 2 … 52], then give the cards a[1:13] to first player, a[14:26] to second player etc. Random permutation generation We can use ceil(rand()*n) to generate a random number from the set {1, 2, …, n}. Algorithm generate a random permutation: 1. Start with array a = [ 1 2 … n] 2. For j = n: -1: 1 randomly pick a number r in [1..j]. Switch a[r] and a[j] 3. Output a.