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The Future
of Broadband Mobility
PTC’09
Tuesday Plenary – January 20, 2009
Honolulu, HI
Ken Zita
Network Dynamics Associates
Arrival of the mobile Internet
The arrival of very high speed and all-IP mobile
networks is immanent. So-called 4G will transform
markets and the mobile services paradigm
worldwide.
• The Promised Land is at hand
– LTE field tests achieving “ultrabroadband” speeds of
160-250MB/s down, 50 MB/s up
– Commercial shipments begin 2H09
– What is the route to mass market adoption?
• How will a “mobile Internet” be different?
– For the consumer experience?
– For service definition?
– For the competitive landscape?
1. What is the impact of broadband on
mobile business strategy?
The mobile value proposition remains tied to legacy
“bandwidth economics” and is relatively untouched
by the economics of the Internet.
• Switched (closed) => packet (open)
• Shift to IP allows service creation of content
services independent of the access network
• Gateways for media downloads vs. merely
transporters of bits
• If future market success is tied to application
and content services, where will carriers
place their bets?
2. How will mobile business models
evolve with broadband?
On-demand video, peer to peer communications,
user-generated content, and application downloads
will displace basic access services such as voice for
new revenue growth.
• Emerging financial models have many more
moving parts, and far less revenue certainty
– Subscriptions
=> to ad-hoc revenue events
– Voice, messaging => on demand content
– Recurring revenue => commissions, advertising,
revenue shares
– Per minute pricing => connectivity
• Timing the transition of revenue composition
• No “net neutrality” for mobile … today
3. Who will “own” what in the new
broadband mobile ecosystem?
How will the network/device/content/brand/web
storefront armistice evolve as the mobile
experience is gradually pried open by IP?
• Can mobile operators preserve their closed
ecosystems for content?
– So far, incumbency has worked
– (US) carriers control content, despite pledges to open
• Apple and Nokia (and Google?) gambling on
integrated, vertical services
– Operating systems resurgent
• MVNO for the new world
– mobile content without the networks
– Who will build the next Apple store?
4. Search
Speed to the handset is exciting but mobile search
needs to evolve, too. What is required to create
“meaningful” mobile search and retain net-centric
customers on the move?
• Today mobile search is a drag
• Contextualize with geography
– Find stuff things that can only been ‘seen’ virtually
through a computer network
• Contextual with geography and local life
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–
–
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Social information that “announces” in cyberspace
How can a network (or device) anticipate my search?
“Network push” => human-centered “demand pull”
Geo-data and location tagging
5. Operational challenges
Service delivery involves controlling content
through middleware or finding a way to stay
relevant as consumers download content from offnetwork sites.
• Facing the on-net/off-net challenge
• Technology
–
–
–
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IMS
Mobile IPv6
What happens to Wimax?
Do carriers need to be software companies?
• Video hits the local mobile network
– 250,000 U.S. cell sites with T-1 backhaul
6. Can Asian mobile SPs globalize?
North Asia is streets ahead of the rest of the world
in terms of mobile broadband adoption. But past
attempts by Japanese and Korean operators to go
global have failed. Why?
• Big differences between U.S. and Japan
mobile content strategies
• Mobile Internet is a platform for delivering
lifestyle services and knowledge uniquely
appropriate to the local market
– Diversity vs. mass market
• Does network scale have a natural (or
optimal) limit when value shifts to services
that involve local market knowledge and
customization?
What does it mean, really, to
create a “mobile Internet”?
See: www.telecomwithvision.com