Download WiMAX vs HSPA October 2006

The Future of Mobile Broadband
Cellular Subscriptions
Subscriptions & Penetration per Region - End Q2, 2006E*
Japan
(excl. PHS)
93 M, 73%
North America
240 M, 73%
Global users
2464 M, 38%
Asia Pacific
851 M, 24%
Latin America
275 M, 49%
Western
Central &
Europe Eastern Europe
423 M, 106% 354 M, 74%
Middle East and Africa
228 M, 20%
* As reported by operators
Source: Estimates based on EMC, Wireless Intelligence, MII & TRAI
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Broadband Everywhere
the starting point and the potential
FTTH
WCDMA
Cable
xDSL
204 million
subscribers
400 million
subscribers
2005
2009
WiMax
3
CDMA2000
Broadband data landscape...
Currently un-served market?
PC´s and Laptops without broadband connection
Residential broadband
industry
Mobile industry
”Mobile broadband
data”
WiMAX
(Dial up) DSL
Fibre
3G Evolved
EDGE/WCDMA/
CDMA
CDMA
Many PC´s yet to be connected:
different enabling technologies
4
Wireless Technologies Overview
WiFi – Unlicensed short range radio
Main usage as a cable replacement by consumers and
enterprises
Don’t expect contineous coverage with WiFi Expensive and very hard to manage
End-user bit rate
1 Gbit/s
WiMAX – Licensed radio
100 Mbit/s
OFDM based radio in TDD and/or FDD bands
In higher frequecies than currenty used allocations
10 Mbit/s
Due to higher frequencies WiMAX will be more
expensive than HSPA for same coverage
802.11g,a,n
802.16d,e
HSPA
802.11b
Still immature – Products, valuechain and
technology options
1 Mbit/s
3G
HSPA – Licensed radio
100 kbit/s
WCDMA based radio within already available
allocations
2G
10 kbit/s
Fully integreted step in GSM evolution
Supported by more than 2 Billion subscribers and 8 out
of 10 largest operators has already choosen WCDMA
Mature technology with unbeatable Economy of Scale
LAN
MAN
WAN
Coverage
5
WiMAX Forecast
2005-2010
WIMAX Subscriber Forecasts
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2006
2007
ABI TOTAL Moderate
ABI TOTAL Aggressive
Pyramid High total
Maravedis
2008
2009
2010
Pyramid Main total
Source: Various analyst firms
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Global Cellular Active Subscriptions
Global Cellular Active Subscriptions by System Standard (03-11)
4000
active subscriptions (million)
3500
WCDMA/GSM
3000
GSM
2500
PDC
2000
1500
TDMA
1000
CDMA
500
Analogue & Other
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year End
7
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
WCDMA Market Outlook
Nov 2006
• 123 WCDMA operators in commercial service in 55
countries
• 407 WCDMA terminals launched in the market
• 70 operators deploying combined WCDMA-EDGE networks;
46 launched
• Over 80 million WCDMA subscribers
• 130 HSDPA network deployments in 60 countries; 74
launched
• 81 HSDPA Devices launched, 22 suppliers
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Issues in Brazil
 Anatel issues public consultation for new 3G spectrum:
i) 10 MHz in 1.9 Ghz band previously assigned to fixed
WLL; mobile operators reject proposal
ii) 40 MHz in 1.8 GHz band
 VIVO (largest operator of the region with 25 million CDMA
users) announces deployment of a GSM overlay for the end
of 2006
 LNP being promoted by regulator for 2007
 Court suspended temporarily WiMax bidding in 3.5 GHz
and 10.5 GHz due to conflicts establishing the minimum bid
 Growing interest in UMTS/WCDMA in 850 MHz
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Latin America Concerns/Issues
 3G spectrum: “In-band” versus new frequency bands
(1700/2100 MHz, 1900/2100 MHz)
 Low ARPUs (US $ 13 average) pressures operators to
look for economies of scale and reduce costs
 Due to a high prepaid penetration (80%), users always
expect a high subsidy in handsets
 Voice still the “killer app”; operators trying to launch VAS to
postpaid users first
 Regulators involved in many issues: Fixed-Mobile
Convergence, Triple Play, WiMax, LNP, Interconnection
fees, Quality Service plans
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Technology Evolution
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Technology Evolution
Complementary solutions
Cellular technologies
become more and
more broadband
Alternative wireless
technologies become
more and more mobile
Several technologies for Broadband access:
• HSPA (HSDPA+HSUPA) and WiFi / WiMAX
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Multi-Service Ericsson Vision
Always Best Connected” and IMS Concepts
Service Layer
Service Layer
Messaging
USM
Charging
Content &
Application
Other
enablers
B2B
control
IMS
Internet
GRX
TeS
MSC
Server
TeS
Rede Core
BGW
PSTN
IP
Backbone
MSG
Rede de Acesso
IP
Rede de Acesso
A-GW
Packet
A-GW
Delivery Control
WLAN
xDSL
PLMN
MGW
IP
RNC
Rede de Acesso
BSC
2/3G/
HSPA
WiMAX
Banda Larga
Common Network Core. Different access options.
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EDGE Evolution requirements
Extend throughput further out in cell
–

Increase peak bit rate > 1Mbps
–

To improve service experience when moving between 2G and 3G
Reduce latency (back to back pings)
–
–

Increased coverage for a given bitrate, e.g. 128 kbps Mobile-TV at cell
border
Latency today: ~150 ms
Goal: Reduce e2e latency
to 50-100 ms
Reduce access time (first ping)
–
–
Today: ~700 ms
Goal: Reduce e2e access
time to 500 ms
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Better Peak
Throughput

Better Coverage
Today
Future
Bad
Radio Quality
Good
EDGE Evolution has broad support


Features are being standardized

in 3GPP R7 to lift GSM/EDGE to a
higher level
Operator Value
–
–
–

Increased end-user data rates
Improved data capacity and
spectrum efficiency
Reduced latency
Dependencies
–
Terminal support is required
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Ericsson
Nokia
Siemens
Motorola
Panasonic
Philips
Intel
Qualcomm
GPRS
48 kbps
EDGE
180 kbps
600 kbps
1,2 Mbps
WCDMA – R99
384 kbps
1,8 Mbps
Contributing companies in
3GPP
WCDMA –Evolved (HSPA)
3,6 Mbps
14 Mbps
28 Mbps 40 Mbps
100 Mbps
3G-LTE
2005
2006
2007
15
2008
2009
3GSM
Evolving WCDMA/HSPA


High Speed Downlink Packet Access in Rel 5
Enhanced Uplink in Rel 6

”High Speed Packet Access+” in Rel 7 e.g.:
– Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO)
– Higher order modulation DL/UL
– MultiMedia Telephony (MMTel) enhancements
– Broadcast/Multicast enhancements

Long Term Evolution in Rel 8
3GPP Rel 99/4
WCDMA
Rel 5
Rel 6
WCDMA Evolved
Enhanced Uplink
MBMS
HSDPA
Rel 7
Rel 8
HSPA Evolved
MBMS+
LTE
LTE
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HSPA
Improving the WCDMA downlink/uplink (vs R99)
Higher bit rates: up to 14 Mbps downlink
SPEED
Higher bit rates: up to 5.8 Mbps uplink
2 - 5 times improved system capacity downlink
CAPACITY
1.5 - 2 times improved system capacity uplink
REDUCED DELAY
Quicker response time with interactive services
STANDARDIZED
Integral part of WCDMA (3GPP Rel.5/6)
Network Coverage
Short time to market with existing sites
17
HSPA Evolution
Improving the HSPA downlink/uplink (targets vs R99)
Higher bit rates: up to 40 Mbps downlink
SPEED
Higher bit rates: up to 10 Mbps uplink
CAPACITY
6 - 8 times improved system capacity DL
2.5 - 3 times improved system capacity UL
2 times improved Broadcast/Multicast capacity
REDUCED DELAY
Quicker response time with interactive services
STANDARDIZED
Integral part of WCDMA (3GPP Rel 7)
Network Coverage
Short time to market with existing sites
18
Long-Term Evolution
Targets on a 20 MHz bandwidth
Higher bit rates: at least 100 Mbps downlink
SPEED
Higher bit rates: at least 50 Mbps uplink
7 - 9 times improved system capacity DL
CAPACITY
3 - 4 times improved system capacity UL
REDUCED DELAY
Quicker response time with interactive services
STANDARDIZED
Part of 3GPP Rel.8
Network Coverage
Short time to market with existing sites
Focus on services from the packet-switched domain !
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Summary HSPA+
Benefits vs R99
– 100x
SPEED
CAPACITY – 5x
COST
– 1/5x
LATENCY
– 1/10x
The WCDMA/HSPA evolution has only just begun!
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Different types of Mobile Broadband
segments
Laptop mobility seekers
Broadband performance everywhere, both indoor and outdoor
Fixed Wireless Broadband
Very cost efficient - ADSL/WiMAX alternative
Enhanced handset services
New multimedia services
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Radio interface is not a limiting factor
Daily capacity per WCDMA site with HSDPA:
1 carrier
4 carriers per sector
2.5 Mbps x 3 sectors x 3600 s x 16 h/8
~ 54 000 Megabyte/Day
~ 216 Gigabyte/Day
Fixed Mobile Broad Band subscription: 1 GB/month
~ 6 600 subscriber per site (in one RBS cabinet)
With potentially 4 Mbps per cell carrier
~ 10 500 subscriber per site (in one RBS cabinet)
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Mobile Broadband
Cost efficient capacity for mass market services
Network
Service
Financial
€
Site CAPEX
WCDMA site
ADSL equivalent
3 carriers
3 sectors
Average capacity: 4Mbit/s per sector carrier
Total Cost /GB =
50kbit/s per subscriber
12 Busy Hours/day
UTRAN + Transmission: 140k€
Depreciation: 6 years
Site OPEX
100% of annual CAPEX depreciation
CAPEX depreciation [€/year] + OPEX [€/year]
total delivered capacity [GB/year]
(300k€ / 10years) + 100% x (300k€ / 10years)
((3carrier x 3sector x 4Mbit/s x 3600sec/hour x 10BH/day x 365days/year) / 8192Mbits/Gbyte)
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=
1€/GB
Mobile broadband terminals
A 3G network is no longer just a mobile telephony network
PC cards
3G Modems
PC Integrated
Phones & PDA’s
81 HSPA terminal models available , Nov 2006
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Established end-user behavior
Key success factor for building a mass market
25
HSPA in the laptop
Strong industry commitment for embedded 3G
Commercial
2006
Availability
3G Operators
Vodafone, Cingular, T-mobile
Terminal and chipset vendors
Ericsson, Option, SierraWireless,
Novatel
PC manufactures
Dell, HP, FujitsuSiemens,
Lenovo (IBM), Sony
It’s already a reality today
26
HSDPA in Laptops - examples
Fujitsu Lifebook Q2010
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop
UMTS 2100
Quadband GSM
Dell Latitude 820
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop
UMTS 2100
Quadband GSM
Lenovo T60
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop
UMTS 1900/850
Quadband GSM
Acer 5650
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop
UMTS 2100
Triband GSM
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Dell Latitude 620
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop
UMTS 2100
Quadband GSM
Lenovo X60
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop
UMTS 2100
Quadband GSM
Strong growth in handset sales
expected
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WCDMA Handsets Prices
29
WCDMA Handset Prices Erosion
Price of low-end WCDMA handsets
450
400
350
-12% per
quarter
300
250
200
150
100
50
Q
40
3
Q
10
4
Q
20
4
Q
30
4
Q
40
4
Q
10
5
Q
20
5
Q
30
5
Q
40
5
Q
10
6
Q
20
6
Q
30
6
Q
40
6
Q
10
7
Q
20
7
Q
30
7
Q
40
7
0
Extrapolation based on Q403-Q106CAGR
Source: Qualcomm
30
Vodafone D2 are already leveraging
WCDMA cost-efficiency
Vodafone “at home”:
 PSTN telephony line
 FAX line
 Internet Access, up to 384kbit/s
 Wi-Fi access point
delivered to the home or office over WCDMA
1000 voice minutes 20 € / month
5 GB Internet access 17 € / month
Note:
in-door CPE makes capacity and cost similar as for ”mobile” case
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