Download International trade

National Board of Trade
Lena Johansson
Director-General
2013-10-14
National Board of Trade
• Agency for foreign trade and trade policy
• Promote free trade and transparent rules
• Our main task is to improve opportunities
for international trade
2
Objectives
• An effective Internal Market
• An open trade policy in the EU
• A strong multilateral international trading system
3
The Swedish Government:
….. create growth and employment in Sweden
by promoting free trade and dismantling of
trade barriers
4
Free trade
• Trade and welfare
• Sweden is very dependant on international trade
5
Developing countries
• Analyses of developing countries
perspective
• Competence and capacity building
programmes in developing
countries
• Open Trade Gate Sweden
6
7
Ljuset är proportionell mot
den ekonomiska aktiviteten
8
9
International trade: theories and practices
• Why do people trade?
• Situation and developments in world trade
• Swedish trade patterns and developments
• Trade policies
• Trade and Climate Change
• Development perspective
10
Swedish trade dependance
Exports/GDP > 50 %
Imports/GDP = almost 50 %
11
Världsexport och Sveriges export av varor och
tjänster
25 000
300
Världsexport: Miljarder USD
200
15 000
150
10 000
100
5 000
50
0
0
Världen
Sverige
Källa: WTO
Svensk export: Miljarder USD
250
20 000
Exportand
av varor
och tjänster,
Exports of goods
services,
percent of GDP
(1960-2007)
procent
av BNP (1960–2007)
60
50
Andel (%)
40
30
20
10
0
Världen
Sverige
Exports/GDP
1960
1996
2006
Global
10 %
20 %
30 %
Sweden
14 %
35 %
> 50 %
14
FDI och export (1980 - 2007)
2500
Index 1980 = 100
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Källa: UNCTAD
FDI
Export
15
Foreign investments/GDP
1995
2005
Global
10 %
24 %
Sweden
30 %
> 50 %
16
30%
20%
Average annual
import growth, goods
15%
10%
5%
60%
25%
Average annual growth in FDI stocks
Average annual imports growth, services
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Average annual GDP growth
0%
0%
5%
10%
5%
10%
15%
15%
Average annual GDP growth
Average annual GDP-growth
Imports of goods and services increase faster
then GDP in almost every country
FDI´s grow even faster
17
“Nations do not trade, nor do sectors.
It is firms that trade”
“… This simple truth makes it
clear that understanding the
firm-level facts is essential to
good policy-making in Europe.
The view that it is important to
focus on the firm rather than
the sector is the single most
important message of recent
developments in international
economics”.
Citat från EU-sponsrade forskningsprojektet:
European Firms in a
Global Economy (EFIGE)
18
International trade is still regional
• Total trade between North America, Asia and Europé =
23 % of world trade
• Trade within the three regions= 53 % of world trade
- Europe 31 % (single market 25 %)
- Asia 14 %
- North America 8 %
19
787mdr $
(6 %)
477mdr $
(4 %)
103 mdr $
(1 %)
4243mdr $
(31%)
1108 mdr $
(8%)
951 mdr $
(7 %)
93,4 mdr $
(1%)
282 mdr $
(2%)
1889mdr $
(14%)
40,5 mdr $
(0,3 %)
122 mdr $
(1 %)
315 mdr $
(2 %)
1148 mdr $
(8%)
Intra regional handel
Inter-regional handel
Källa: WTO International Trade Statistics 2008
20
EU-27:s intra- och extra regional varuhandel som andel av total
handel 1962-2008
80
70
60
Andel (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Extra-import
Linear (Intra-export)
Linear (Intra-import)
Linear (Extra-export)
Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits)
21
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Andel (%)
Sveriges intra- och extra-handel med varor som procentandel av total handel 1962-2008
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Intra-export
Extra-export
Intra-import
Extra-import
Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS)
22
Trends in world trade – long term
•
Global market place
•
Global Value Chains
•
Goods and Services
•
Servicification
•
e-commerce
•
Movement of persons
•
Data flows
•
Digitalization
Other tendencies - short term?
•
Crises effects, politics
•
New protectionism
•
Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally
•
Local production
Climate concerns
Emerging markets
23
Export byRegional
regionsfördelning av varuexporten
(1963 och 2007)
i världen (1963 och 2007)
50
Andel (%)
40
30
20
1963
2007
10
0
24
Global Value Chains and Trade
• The traditional picture:
An industry in one country produces goods
for exports to and final consumption in another country
25
26
Global Value Chains and Trade
• The new reality:
The production is fragmented
Inputs and components are produced in many countries
and the product is assembled in many countries
27
Made in Sweden?
A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish…
28
Made In
The World
29
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1995
2005
Källa: Egna beräkningar baserade på SCB:s Input-Outputtabeller
30
20%
Russia
India
Brazil
United States
Argentina
Australia
Indonesia
South Africa
Japan
United Kingdom
New Zealand
Norway
Israel
Turkey
Switzerland
Italy
France
Spain
Germany
Greece
China
Poland
Canada
Austria
Portugal
Sweden
Denmark
Netherlands
Finland
Mexico
Chinese Taipei
Korea
Belgium
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Estonia
Ireland
Hungary
Luxembourg
Swedish exports are not only made in Sweden
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
OECD-average: 31 %
10%
0%
31
Sectors
1995
2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Tjänstesektorer
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
32
Exportvärdet jämfört med förädlingsvärdet från exporten
12%
Andel av total export
Andel av totalt förädlingsvärde i exporten
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
33
En Boeing Dreamliner : Made in America?
43 subcontractors
Spread on 135 production facilities in the world
Among other things, wings made in Japan, the engines of in the U.S.
and Great Britain, the doors in France and Sweden
70 % of the components are manufacturesd outside the U.S.
”Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest
international competetion in business, New York, USA
34
Over 50 % of world trade is trade in inputs
35
“Everybody is in
Services”
– The Impact of
Servicification in
Manufacturing on Trade
and Trade Policy
36
Servicification = more and more services as inputs
and outputs in manufacturing
Increased dependence in the manufacturing industry on
• Purchased service inputs
• In-house service production
• Sales of services integrated into products
• Sales of services alongside products
• Service import and export
…supports competitiveness, productivity and trade
37
Almost 50 % of the employees in Swedish
manufactoring have services jobs
38
Services and Global Value Chains
39
1. Services as enablers
Financial
services
R&D/
Design
Raw
Materials
Logistics
Services
Intermediate
Inputs
Quality Control
Services
Semi
Finished
Goods
Final Good
Assembly
and
Packaging
Warehouse
Retail/
Delivery
Customer
Service
Marketing
Services
Source: USITC 2011
40
Minecraft by Mojang AB
• Game idea: Mining different
blocks to create and build
structures of choice
• First released: May 2009
• Official release: November 2011
• Original developer: Markus
‘Notch’ Persson
• Owner: Notch Development AB
• Current Developer: Mojang AB
(under license)
• Sold copies: 18 million (Dec
2012) – 40,000 copies/day
41
Lessons from video game sector
• R&D heavy, cutting edge
of ICT-sector
• ”Live development”
• Digital distribution
• Digital tasks outsourced
• Digital ecosystems
42
Countries involved in the GVC
• USA
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Germany
England
Scotland
Holland
Canada
Japan
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Without order of
importance
Plus: UN Habitat, and other countries
(”Community”, marketing and ”3rd Party
Servers)
43
Services provide over 50 % of the value
from exports from OECD countries
44
Svensk export mätt i förädlingsvärde per sektor (2008)
Sveriges 12 viktigaste exportmarknader 2011
14
Andel av Sveriges totala export
12
Andel (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Källa: SCB
46
Var hamnar svensk export? - 2008
14
Andel (%) av totalt förädlingsvärde
från svensk export
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
47
Källa: OECD/Kommerskollegiums egna beräkningar
Sveriges 12 viktigaste leverantörsländer 2011
20
Andel av Sveriges totala import
18
16
14
Andel (%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Källa: SCB
48
• E-commerce
• New options
• New barriers
• Cloud computing
49
“While the nature of global trade has
changed, trade regulation in the EU and
other OECD economies has remained
largely the same.”
50
EU trade policy
• Common policy
• EU acts as one part in WTO
• Customs Union
• Import Quotas
• Antidumping and other safeguards
• Free Trade Agreements
• Common Agicultural Policy, CAP
51
FTAs notified and active (1948-2008)
500
WTO
is founded
Number of FTAs
400
300
200
100
0
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
Notified to GATT/WTO
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Notified to GATT/WTO and in force
Source: WTO RTA gateway
52
Genomsnittlig tullnivå för
industrivaror i i-länder
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
40
4
1950-talet
2003
53
Tullnivåer i i-länder och u-länder
14
12
procent
10
8
6
4
2
0
Genomsnittlig tullnivå i Genomsnittlig tullnivå i I-länders tullar på varor
i-länderna
u-länderna
från u-länder
U-länders tullar på
varor från andra uländer
54
How does trade effect CO2 emissions?
• Transports
• Production: location, methods
• Innovations and technical developments are spread
55
The relationship between international trade and transport
modes
Andel av världshandeln i vikt (2006)
Källa: UNCTAD (2008)
56
CO2 emissions by sector and the transport sector
Källor: IEA (2011) och
OECD (2010b)
57
CO2-utsläpp per ton-km
Emission intensity for different modes
Källa: Cristea m.fl. (2011)
58
“Nations do not trade, nor do sectors.
It is firms that trade”
“… This simple truth makes it
clear that understanding the
firm-level facts is essential to
good policy-making in Europe.
The view that it is important to
focus on the firm rather than
the sector is the single most
important message of recent
developments in international
economics”.
Citat från EU-sponsrade forskningsprojektet:
European Firms in a
Global Economy (EFIGE)
59
Surveys and publications
• Reports in Swedish and English
• Website: www.kommers.se
60
Trade related Development Cooperation
Contribute to developing countries
• trade possibilities and
• trade negotiation capacity
61
www.kommers.se
62