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V Conference Franco-Japonaise de Bioethique The impact of robotization on Japan's healthcare/ L’impact de la robotisation sur les soins de santé au Japon Yutaka Kato Department of Medical Ethics, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine 1 Abstract • Robots have been gradually put into use in healthcare. And Japan is often regarded as an international hub of robotics research. Against this backdrop, this presentation aims to provide an overview of potentially diverse and broad impact of robotization on healthcare primarily in Japanese context, and to present several fundamental countermeasures to tackle with the challenges arising from the broadness of the issues. After briefly presenting a working definition of the term “robot” in relation to “artificial intelligence” in order to frame the question, the presentation will describe the issues classified in three categories: robotization in medical setting, implications of the status quo of Japan’s robotics industry for Japan itself as well as for other counties, and robotization indirectly affecting healthcare. The first category deals with the use of robots in medical setting as typified by diagnosis, surgery and nursing. The third includes such issues as use of robots in medical research, labor/employment and occupational injury/disease. The presentation is mainly based on literature research including journal articles reporting the current development tendencies. I will conclude the presentation by presenting a number of measures to be taken against potential negative impact of robotization on healthcare. Within the scope of this presentation, I will limit my inquiry to short- and medium-term possibilities. 2 Overview • Working definition • In the following 3 categories 1. Robotics in medical setting 2. Japan’s robotics industry 3. Robotics indirectly affecting healthcare • Short- and medium term 3 Working definition • we define “robot” as an engineered machine that senses, thinks, and acts: “Thus a robot must have sensors, processing ability that emulates some aspects of cognition, and actuators. Sensors are needed to obtain information from the environment. Reactive behaviors (like the stretch reflex in humans) do not require any deep cognitive ability, but on-board intelligence is necessary if the robot is to perform significant tasks autonomously, and actuation is needed to enable the robot to exert forces upon the environment. Generally, these forces will result in motion of the entire robot or one of its elements (such as an arm, a leg, or a wheel)”. This definition … leaves open the possibility of biological robots, as well as virtual or software ones. But it does rule out as robots any fully remote-controlled machines, since those devices do not “think”, e.g., many animatronics and children’s toys. Rather, the generally accepted idea of a robot depends critically on the notion that it exhibits some degree of autonomy or can “think” for itself, making its own decisions to act upon the environment. Thus, the US Air Force’s Predator unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), though mostly tele-operated by humans, makes some navigational decisions on its own and therefore would count as a robot. (Lin et al.) • This presentation adopts the above definition. 4 Working definition Provisional justifications for the above definition: • The relation between Robotics and AI (Artificial intelligence) • After the beginning of this millennium, new robots intended for personal use appeared and “implementation/embodiment of human intelligence on machines,” which was originally the goal of AI, became the immediate goal of robotics (Arimoto) • View of robots as physical embodiment of AI • Development tendencies in engineering toward greater autonomy necessitates revisiting implications of “autonomous” devices which are not completely 5 controlled. Working definition The consequences of adopting this definition: • AI is almost omnipresent: e.g. automobiles, airplanes, software, etc. (continuity.) • Albeit dubious, some argued that the development of AI could be an exponential progress according to Moore’s law (The prediction by Gordon Moore, cofounder of the Intel Corporation, that the quantity of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit would double approximately every 18 months. ) and reach critical point unexpectedly. • Highly-developed AI is expected by some to be enormously profitable (e.g. through pharmaceutical development (Bostrom))。 • Affected by development status of nanotechnology etc.(terminals small enough to tap into neurons, the development of nano-bots, indispensable for the improvement of performance). The relation between nanotech and AI is chicken-and-egg? (Highly-developed AI can overcome hurdles in nanotechnology) • Issues involved in rights and responsibilities of autonomous robots will come into sight in medicine in the long run ex. Responsible for medical accidents (caused by autonomous decision by a robot) 6 1. Robotics in medical setting • Use of robots in healthcare ex. Robots designed to help daily activities (Exact Dynamics: MANUS(iArm), Secom: MySpoon) ex. Hospi (Panasonic) ex. Paro ex. Power suit ex. AURORA Project (University of Reading, treatment of autism through interaction with robots, which is supposed to be easier than interaction with other people) • Robots used in surgery Zeus, Da Vinci, ROBODOC (very limited autonomy), reduction of hand tremor • Use in education ex. Robots for practical training • Medical diagnosis system ex. MYCIN:developed in 1970s (rule-based expert system) • Use in research and development ex. Robot model of Parkinson disease ex. Virtual human ex. Robo Scientist • Treatment by cyborgization ↓ Improvement in patients’ QOL 7 Treatments formerly impossible may be possible (concern for swelling medical 1. Robotics in medical setting • The term “robot” appears only once in “Basic welfare engineering” (“Robotics series”) • Most of healthcare robots are useless … the majority of the practically used healthcare devices, including wheelchairs, is low-tech (Tejima) • The term “robotics” appears only in 4 lines in the 181-page annual report by Medical Center for Translational Research at Osaka Univ. Hospital. 8 1. Robotics in medical setting • “Frame problem” exists in healthcare. ex. Necrosis is caused by diabetes, Buerger's disease, gum disease, or spider or? Difficulty in depending entirely on diagnostic system and simultaneously demand for more advanced AI. • The way a society perceives to have patients or elderly citizens left to robots (possibly cultural differences) (Lin et al.) • Difficulty in developing a relationship with robots used in healthcare?(A thousand-fold processing ability is necessary for robots to pass the Turing test and to be an “intelligent thinker”? Weather human qualities that cannot be replaced by robot-human relationship exist in human-human relationship?) • Increased importance of engineering knowledge • The more complex and intricate, the more breakable and difficult to repair. • The greater dependence on robots equipped with computers necessitates countermeasures against cracking. 9 1. Robotics in medical setting • As many have noted on other industries, also in healthcare simple tasks can be performed by robots (ex. mere assistance, doublecheck function), in Japan, labor shortage in the future is anticipated. • Inhibiting/prohibiting factors for robotization of healthcare include: opposition or approval by professional associations (possibly split within), expenses for medical institutions and the entire society (Robots can be cheaper in the future? Software can be low-budget than robots?) • Human beings may be liberated from simple tasks (characterized by 3Ds: dull, dirty, dangerous) or deprived of rights for simples tasks as occupation. Less intelligent people may be marginalized (from occupations in healthcare) more intensely than they are today. • Job loss needs to be compensated. • Not only negative effects but also positive effects which can mitigate personnel turnover problem: reduction in manpower shortage, prolonged work. • The possibility that surgeons and physicians can be replaced by robots constitutes another problem? (Lin et al.)。And possibly, scientists (robo scientists). 10 1. Robotics in medical setting • Technological means can be available prior to regenerative medicine, despite the arrival of iPS cells (ex. treatment for vision loss). Also, the former can be preferred, due to their relative ease of maintenance or the possibility of adverse events. • Implications and issues pointed out for technological enhancement are also applicable. • If the standards of performance changes, enhancement may be closer to treatment? • Problems with body or devices? 11 1. Robotics in medical setting • Treatment by cyborgization e.g. If the properties of an object grabbed at are autonomously judged, the definition of robot may be met (autonomous decision based on information from the environment) e.g. Artificial vision system (can be categorized into robot if equipped with (autonomous) information processing) • Nothing more than minor adjustment? Or in terms of autonomy, autonomy merely in information processing should be distinguished from higher levels of autonomy 12 1. Robotics in medical setting • Electronic (on screen )( ex. World Highest Resolution Virtual Human http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/cpr/pressrelease/031028e.htm ) • Electronic (on screen ) Researchers at Univ. of Oxford and Univ. of Auckland working on models of the whole heart say,“If we get some good milestones from the heart, we can start adding other systems such as the lung. The big mission is the virtual human – that’s where this project is going, even though it could take 20 years. http://www.wellcome.ac.uk/News/2004/Features/WTX023668.htm • Possibility of “virtual human” using real tissues and organs but without the brain. (Greenfield: re-translated from the Japanese translation. The translation may be wrong, but still this possibility cannot be entirely dimissed. 13 1. Robotics in medical setting • Possible distinctions between electronic and biological virtual human systems. The latter may eventually have nervous system for monitoring neurological diseases, effects of brain hormones, discomforts (in the distant future, fusion with humanoid robots). Dignity of human body and nervous system? • Can lead to reduced adverse events and use of experimental animals • AI egg or chicken? Highly developed AI is necessary for developing new drugs? 14 2.Japan’s robotics industry • Robotics and Japan Robotics - national forte Equipped with by far the most industrial robots Need to compensate decrease in labor force possibly by robots Weak in medical devices Robo-philia? • (In relation to the above point: together with a governmental plan to increase workers from overseas, the majority of whom most likely undertake simpler task, can be the first to be deprived of their work, if imigratation precedes robotization) 15 2.Japan’s robotics industry 89% of medical devices approved in Japan (especially high-risk devices) are from overseas (Yamaoka) Approximately 80% of patent applications for medical devices filed at Japan Patent Office are from overseas. International Federation of Robotics (IFR) • Japan is equipped with by far the most industrial robots (Industrial structures, employment in tertiary industry) • Despite its strength in engineering and robotics, Japan is relatively weak in medical devices (Some think it is because of overly strict regulations and 16 (cultural) emphasis on safety). 2.Japan’s robotics industry • variations in national development capability, ethics and law -> uneven trajectory internationally • Implications of Japan’s strength Taking lead and possibly site of pilot use Plenty of room for robotization and the consequent impact for other parts of the world Without leading the debate on ELSI of robotics, Japan may incur “policy vacuum” situations worldwide. But the self-understanding of leading roboticists as robo-philic may have negative effect on such debate. • Need to formulate international guidelines at some future time to avoid “policy vacuum.” Possibility or responsibility that Japan can (or should) provide a model and springboard. 17 2.Japan’s robotics industry • In a position to influence other countries ex. Japanese leaders of International robotics societies ex. International sales of ASIMO and others ex. Media contents (“Transformers” a Hollywood film of Japanese origin) 18 3.Robotization indirectly affecting healthcare • Reduction of occupational injury/disease (asbestos/mines removal, tunnel, factory, miner, hearing impairment, pneumoconiosis, amputation, etc. ) as a indirect effect • When robotics becomes a basic social infrastructure, those who are less skillful using robots may be marginalized by being unfit for newly emerging society (e.g. senior citizens?) and also may be (gradually) expelled from healthcare professions. • Demand for a new (mental?) ability, (for which humans are not biologically or evolutionarily designed) 19 3.Robotization indirectly affecting healthcare • Implications of closeness to humans may be worth revisiting. • On one hand, closeness to humans can be useful in healthcare. e.g. A robot for bathing can be less obtrusive, less horrifying by human-like appearance (elimination of metallic surface, motor sound) • On the other hand, (psychological) consequences to be always surrounded by what gives the sense of human qualities may be negative for people withautism, social anxiety disorder (SAD), agoraphobia, Taijin kyofusho symptoms (a culturebound syndrome, an expression of which is Shisen kyofu (lit. sight fear), a fear to be looked at by others), etc. 20 Summary • The current status is far away from the envisaged goals, but the influences of robotization of healthcare will be extensive (wide-ranging). • Short-term advantages do exist in applications in healthcare while medium- and long-term (and unknown) risks are unclear. • Safety, medical cost, and employment are among anticipated problems. • Japan, as an international leader in robotics, may be able to contribute to dealing with ELSI of robotization of healthcare. 21 Measures to be taken 1 • Short-term advantages do exist. But we should not let these advantages simply override medium- and long-term (unknown) risks (a repeated pattern of collapse of civilizations) • Due to safety, medical cost, and employment problems, meticulous and sufficiently strong regulations may be necessary when introduced. • Due to the interdisciplinary nature of the technology, propensity toward secrecy (and possibly exponential development), preemptive discussion is necessary to avoid a repeat of the landmine problem. 22 Measures to be taken 2 • When exporting the products from Japan, manufactures should consider the situation in the destination for export. • Japan is relatively weak in medical devices possibly due to overly strict regulations. We should not choose to loosen these regulations merely for financial/industrial reasons without extensive discussion. • Against the risks including cracking (cf. Y2K problem), oligopoly or monopoly may need to be controlled (robot diversity). • Possible psychological, cognitive consequences may justify the control of robot use in healthcare in terms of quantity and the closeness to humans. 23 References • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Charles Q. Choi. Automaton, Know Thyself: Robots Become Self-Aware February 24, 2011 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=automaton-robots-become-selfaware&WT.mc_id=SA_WR_20110303 Kerstin Dautenhahn. ROBOTS AS SOCIAL ACTORS: AURORA AND THE CASE OF AUTISM Daniel W. Drezner. Voluntary human extinction in one country Ethical Issues in Robots in Society Essay Victoria Gill. Robo-scientist's first findings http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7979113.stm Susan Greenfield. Tomorrow’s people http://www.robotics.org/index.cfm International Federation of Robotics (IFR), c/ Benelux: Belgium, Netherlands national robot associations and UNECE Ross D. King. Rise of the Robo Scientists, Scientific American January 17, 2011 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=rise-of-the-robo-scientists Ray Kurzweil. The singularity is near: When humans transcend biology Patrick Lin, Keith Abneyb, George Bekey. Robot ethics: Mapping the issues for a mechanized world Bill McKibben. Enough Yamaoka T. Material for a biomaterial seminar at Osaka University (fall 2010) The author belongs to National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Osaka 歯科実習用ロボット - シムロイド : DigInfo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMAUbDOin2w 世界初!人間を抱き上げるロボット「RIBA(リーバ)」 http://rtc.nagoya.riken.jp/RIBA/ 安川 裕介 ロボットの三大国際会議における技術動向調査(米国) 安永武史, 橋爪誠. ロボット医療開発とオープンMRI 手島、米本、相川、相良、糟谷 基礎 福祉工学 ロボティクスシリーズ12 中村宣雄 ROBODOCを使ったTHAの実際(1) 24