Download Gylvan Meira Filho, IAS: Brazil - BASIC

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India Workshop
11-12 May 2006
Adaptation to Climate Change:
the outlook in Brazil
Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho
Visiting Professor
Institute for Advanced Studies
University of São Paulo
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There is a time lag between emissios
of GHGs and the maximum climate
change.
This time lag is of the order of 40-50
years for carbon dioxide and nitrous
oxide, and 20 years for methane.
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The same is true for emissions
reductions: even drastic emissions
reductions today will only decrease
climate change 40-50 years from now.
It follows that, in order to decrease the
magnitude of damages caused by climate
change, it will be necessary to adapt to it.
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Adaptation as one option of response to
climate change.
Three options available:
Inaction, thus damages;
Adaptation, when possible;
Mitigation.
Optimal decision, a combination of these
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It is essential that our countries define
their national interests.
International negotiations deal
fundamentally with the sharing of the
burden for damages, adaptation costs
and mitigation measures.
This in addition to capacity building,
sharing of experience, etc.
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BRAZIL – unique circumstances
8.5 million square kilometers
less than 200 million inhabitants
large tropical forest
relative clean energy:
hydro power
ethanol
biodiesel
renewable charcoal
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Key aspects of adaptation in Brazil:
In many cases adaptation is not possible.
Must develop better forecasts of regional
climate change.
Must include climate change in the shortterm climate predictions.
Emphasis on adaptation of agriculture
and water resources.
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Modelling effort at the CPTEC –
Center for Weather Prediction and
Climate Studies, in Cachoeira
Paulista.
Initial training with help of the Institute
for Tropical Meteorology, Pune, in the
1970s.
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Simulation of the effect of replacement of
Amazonian forest with pasture in South
America, on the regional climate.
Study of the regional effect of climate
change upon precipitation in the
Amazonian basin.
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As climate changes, there will be a
decrease of precipitation in the
eastern portion of the Brazilian
Amazonian forest. The tendency will
be for the edges of the forest to move
towards a savannah type of
vegetation.
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There are no adaptation measures
possible in this case.
There will be a loss of biodiversity
associated with the savannization of
the borders of the Amazonian forest.
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Change in the precipitation regime
will change water availability in the
different river basins.
Must be taken into account in order
to optimize planning and operation of
hydroelectrical plants.
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Agriculture:
This is one area in which the
research community is taking interest
on climate change, with a view to
developing varieties that will be better
adapted to the changing climate.
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Health:
The studies on the change of location
of malaria do not consider it possible
to take adaptation measures.
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Northearn Brazil:
Highest relative interannual variability of
precipitation in the world.
The result is quase-periodic dought.
Population ill-adapted to present climate.
With climate change, task may become
more difficult.
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Increase of predictive capacity essential
to maximize possibility of adaptation.
However, improved predictions are not
sufficient.
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Very difficult to separate adaptation to
natural climate variability from adaptation
to climate change.
Climate are the statistics of the variables
that describe the instantaneus state of the
atmosphere.
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Rational decision making:
Estimates of costs associated with
impacts of climate change and with
adaptation measures are essential.
They must be compared with the costs of
mitigation.
The distribution in time of the costs is also
important.
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