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Food Challenges in the 21st Century From the Plough to the Plate Production Sustainable Agriculture Environmental Protection Biodiversity and Agro-biodiversity Agricultural research and Technology Climate Change and Variability Domestic and International Access, Availability &Trade Consumption : Population, Diet, Income Food Security and Mal-nutrition Food Security and Obesity Mahendra Shah IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria GECAFS Food Systems Workshop London, 21-22 October 2004 Human Rights Food Water Education Health Care Social Security Clean/Safe Environment Freedom form Harassment Freedom from Discrimination Opportunities for Participation International Commitments in a World of Disparities Hunger in a World of Plenty 1000 Latin America & Carribean World Food Summits 1974,1996, 2002 MDGs 2000 million people 800 South Asia 600 East Asia 400 Near East & North Africa 200 Sub-Saharan Africa 0 1969-71 1979-81 1990-92 1997-99 The Risks of Too Much Food Millennium Development Goals : Targets to 2015 (long history of international political goals) POVERTY 1948( Universal Declaration-Human Rights); World Summits: 1972 Stockholm; 1990 Children; 1995 Social Development; 1996 Food; 2000 G8 Okinawa; Millennium Summit 2000 HUNGER World Food Summits 1974,1996, 2002; Millennium Summit 2000 Education and Gender Equity 1974 UNESCO Convention; 1990 World Conference on education; 1994 UN IPCD; 1995 Social Development Summit; 1995 Beijing; 2000 World education Forum; Millennium Summit 2000 Health 1974 Bucharest; 1984 Mexico; 1992 Rio; 1994 Cairo; 1995 Copenhagen; 2000 Millennium Summit Environmental and Development 1972 Stockholm; 1992 Rio; WSSD 2002 Food Agriculture & Millennium Development Goals : 2015 50% Reduction in POVERTY (1a) Agriculture > 70% of poor in rural areas; Livelihoods/ employment on farm/ rural off farm 50% Reduction in HUNGER (1b) Agriculture > Food +90% of agriculture; Rural and urban hunger- access/affordability/safety Universal Primary Education (2); Eliminate Gender Disparity (3) Agriculture > Firewood collection and cooking; Focus on primary education 67% Reduction in child mortality (4) 75% Reduction in maternal mortality (5) Halt and reverse spread/incidence of HIV/AIDS/Malaria/Diseases (6) Agriculture > Rural and Urban Investments in Health Care Ensure Environmental sustainability (7) Agriculture > Largest user/ highest impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services; Biodiversity and Agro-biodiversity; Global Environmental Change poses greatest threat; Water scarcity; Fragile ecosystems – hill sides, semi-arid areas, watersheds, forests etc Develop a global partnership for development (8) Agriculture > ODA/ investments - agriculture research/extension/development;WTO Reforms The Food Agricultural Challenge : Differentially Vulnerable Populations and Ecosystems Sustainability of Natural Resources; Agricultural Technology Relevance/Risks/Benefits/IPR Infrastructure and Marketing; Education and training; Nutrition and Diets Human Population 2000 Regional Diversity and Demography, 1700 – 1990 Demographic Transition 2000-2050 Population 2000, 2050 regional distribution Expanding Cropland 1700-1990 Fraction of grid cell in croplands Intensive Mono Cropping Intensive Meat and Fish Production Agricultural : Vulnerability & Sustainability Sciences Political Vulnerability Disenfranchisement Societal Vulnerability Poverty, Hunger, Health, Population, Knowledge Environmental Vulnerability Resources, Degradation, Pollution, Climate Variability and Change Economic Vulnerability Farm and off-Farm Investments, Agricultural Research and Extension, Prices, Credit, Infrastructure, Livelihoods Technological Vulnerability Research and Extension Capacity, Agro-biodiversity, IPRs Internal and External Factors What can science and research contribute to foster sustainable development? • 1. 2. How can the dynamic interactions between nature and society, including lags and inertia, be better incorporated in emerging models that integrate the Earth system, human development, and sustainability? INTEGRATED SYSTEMS VIEW What determines the vulnerability or resilience of the nature-society system for particular places, ecosystems, and livelihoods? UNDERSTAND ROBUSTNESS / HETEROGENEITY Can scientifically meaningful “limits” or “boundaries” be defined that would provide effective warning of conditions beyond which the nature-society systems incur a significantly increased risk of degradation? UNDERSTAND NONLINEARITIES / INTERACTIONS What can science and research contribute to foster sustainable development? 4. What systems of incentive structures – including 5. 6. markets, rules, norms and scientific information – can most effectively improve social capacity to guide human interventions toward more sustainable trajectories? ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES How are long-term trends in environment and development, including consumption and population, reshaping nature-society interactions? INTEGRATED SCENARIOS How can today’s operational systems for monitoring and reporting on environmental and social conditions be integrated or extended to provide more useful guidance to navigate a transition toward sustainability? INFORMATION INTEGRATION Information Relevance and Utility Earth-based Information Ground Assessment, Household Surveys, Market Information Science and research, Traditional Knowledge… ……………………………….. Space-based Information IGOS : Integrated Global Observing Strategy GISD : Global Information for Sustainable Development ………………………………. Harmonizing Earth-based and Space-based Information Integrated analytical tools : Scientific understanding and policy analysis National Policy making and implementation International negotiations and agreements ……………………………………. Developing Country Capacity Building Achieving Sustainable Development : Reaching the Farmers and Consumers ………………………………………. IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at Global Food and Agricultural System Global Environmental Change Global Economy Integrated Ecological-Economic : Science for Policy Actions Agro-ecological Zones Methodology Agro-ecological Zones Methodology Geographical Data Layers 1. Monthly climatology 1960 – 1996; CRU at University of East Anglia; at 0.5 deg. latitude/longitude Agro-ecological Zones Methodology Geographical Data Layers 3. FAO/Unesco digital Soil Map of the World; UN Food and Agriculture Organization; at 5 arc-min. latitude/longitude Agro-ecological Zones Methodology Geographical Data Layers 5. Global gridded population distribution data of 1995; CIESIN; at 2.5 arc-min. latitude/longitude resolution. Global Agro-ecological Zones Environmental resources database including climate, soil, terrain, and land cover comprising 2.2 million grid cells, assessing the agricultural potential of food and fiber crops, pastures, trees etc at three levels of farming technology. BLS Model System 18 National Models, 2 Regional Models, 14 other Regional Models Commodities : wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine and ovine meat,dairy products, other animal products, other food, non-food agriculture,non-agriculture. Linkage : trade, world market prices and financial flows National and Regional Models Argentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, China, India, USA European Union, Eastern Europe and former USSR AFRICA (Oil exporters, medium and low income : exporters and importers) LATIN AMERICA (high-income : exporters and importers, medium income) SOUTHEAST ASIA (high-medium income exporters and importers) SOUTH ASIA (low income) SOUTHWEST ASIA (oil exporters, medium-low income) Rest of the world The International Linkage in the World Food System Model COUNTRY A EXCHANGE EQUILIBRIUM PRODUCTION Non-agriculture production Prices, consumption, stocks, net exports to satisfy: Agriculture production Production inputs: • Budget constraint • Market clearance • Trade balance • Trade quota • Land • Labour • Capital • Fertilizer • Others GOVERNMENT POLICIES Target price, tariffs, taxes, quota, etc. International commodity prices PW Net trade EA COUNTRY B PW WORLD MARKETS International prices to satisfy: • commodity balances • financial transfer balance EC PW COUNTRY C ED EB EE PW COUNTRY D PW COUNTRY E Integrated ecological-economic Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Food and Agriculture Systems IPCC SRES Scenarios Source: IPCC, 2001. IPCC SRES Development Scenarios to 2100 Population, Scenario A1, B1 10000 GDP per caput 120000 A1, B1 100000 8000 A1-MDC AML 6000 ASIA REF 4000 OECD GDP $/cap millions A1-LDC 80000 A2-MDC A2-LDC 60000 B2-MDC B2-LDC 40000 B1-MDC 2000 0 2000 B1-LDC 20000 2020 2040 2060 2080 0 2000 2100 Population, Scenario B2 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Population, Scenario A2 12000 16000 B2 A2 14000 10000 millions AML ASIA 6000 REF OECD 4000 millions 12000 8000 AML 10000 ASIA 8000 REF 6000 OECD 4000 2000 0 2000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 3.7 Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, reference climate 1961-90 3.8 Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, HadCM3-A1FI 2080s Impact of Climate Change on Extents of Land with Constraints for Agriculture Hadley A1f, 2080s NO SLIGHT MEDIUM SEVERE H3A1F CURRENT 535 2704 6061 15128 NO 471 457 11 3 0 SLIGHT 2528 66 2395 67 0 MEDIUM 5727 6 262 5379 80 SEVERE 15702 6 36 612 15048 Note: This transition table shows changes due to climate change of extents of land with no, slight, moderate and severe constraints for agricultural use. The diagonal indicates land remaining within the broad classes. Values to the right of the diagonal indicate a worsening of agro-ecological conditions, values to the left of the diagonal an improvement. Potential, 2080s OCEANIA Potential, reference Cultivated, 1994-96 EUROPE & RUSSIA NORTH AMERICA Potential, 2080s Potential, reference Cultivated, 1994-96 Potential, 2080s Potential, reference Cultivated, 1994-96 0 100 200 VS+S 300 MS 400 F+P 500 Rain-fed 600 700 800 Irrigated Potential, 2080s ASIA Potential, reference Cultivated, 1994-96 Potential, 2080s AFRICA Potential, reference Cultivated, 1994-96 LATIN AMERICA Potential, 2080s Potential, reference Cultivated, 1994-96 0 200 VS+S 400 MS F+P 600 Rain-fed 800 Irrigated 1000 Comparison of land with rainfed crop production potential for current climate, for future climate projected by HadCM3-A1FI in 2080s, and land in use for cultivation in 1994-96 (million ha). Cultivated Land (1000 ha) 1800 Cultivated Land A2 1750 B2 1700 A1 B1 1650 A2 B2 1600 A1 1550 B1 1500 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 WORLD 1200 Cultivated Land (1000 ha) Source: Fischer et al., 2002 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES projected for different IPCC economic development paths 1150 1100 A2 1050 B2 1000 A1 950 B1 900 850 800 1990 2020 2050 2080 Changes in cereal-production potential versus increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming DEVELOPED, all land DEVELOPED, current cultivated land 150 130 CSIRO CGCM2 130 NCAR HAD3 120 CGCM2 NCAR 110 HAD3 Index (1961-90 = 100) Index (1961-90 = 100) HAD3 140 CSIRO 120 CGCM2 NCAR 110 HAD3 NCAR 100 CGCM2 CSIRO 100 300 400 500 600 700 800 CSIRO 90 300 900 400 500 CO2 ppm 600 700 800 900 CO2 ppm 115 115 CSIRO 110 CGCM2 NCAR 105 HAD3 CGCM2 100 NCAR HAD3 Index (1961-90 = 100) Index (1961-90 = 100) HAD3 CSIRO 110 CGCM2 NCAR 105 HAD3 NCAR 100 CGCM2 CSIRO 95 300 400 500 600 700 CO2 ppm DEVELOPING, all land 800 900 CSIRO 95 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 CO2 ppm DEVELOPING, current cultivated land India: Climate Change Yield Impact - 2050 H3A1f H3A2 H3B2 H3B1 Wheat -22.8 -17.2 -15.9 -17.6 Rice 2.8 -2.1 -1.9 4.1 Maize -1.4 -2.2 -2.3 -0.6 Pulses 9.2 3.7 5.0 6.8 Roots 4.2 -10.7 -2.3 8.1 Oil -2.5 -5.5 -4.0 0.8 Sugar -7.1 -6.9 -7.0 -4.2 CSA1 CSA2 CSB2 CSB1 -16.2 -14.8 -15.1 -16.0 -0.4 -2.2 -2.8 -3.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -2.0 8.7 7.1 6.6 4.1 3.2 -0.6 3.2 -2.9 -2.0 -2.6 -2.8 -4.2 -5.9 -6.9 -7.0 -6.5 C2A2 C2B2 -18.0 -17.5 1.6 3.5 2.1 1.5 17.8 17.6 17.8 18.4 3.6 3.7 -8.0 -5.6 NCA2 NCB2 -15.1 -16.1 3.6 3.0 -0.1 -0.9 12.7 10.7 21.4 20.1 1.2 -0.3 -3.4 -3.2 Note: weighted yield impact for rain-fed and irrigated cultivation (% change). India: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture – 2080 H3A1f H3A2 H3B2 H3B1 Cereal Production -15.7 -15.9 -9.8 -5.7 GDP Agriculture -4.8 -7.9 -4.4 -1.0 Cereal Consumption -7.5 -6.4 -4.4 -3.8 CSA1b CSA2 CSB2 CSB1 -9.6 -10.4 -8.2 -7.5 -1.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.7 -4.6 -4.1 -4.9 -5.0 C2A2 C2B2 -5.7 -5.4 1.0 2.5 -2.2 -1.2 NCA2 NCB2 -10.3 -5.7 0.9 1.9 -0.4 0.1 Note: percent change relative to respective reference projection without climate change. ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1 Country-level Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1 Country-level Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1 Country-level Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1 Country-level Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s 2080 B1 2050 A1 B2 2020 A2 Cereal Production, Net Imports of Developing Countries 1990 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Cereal Production (million tons) projected for different IPCC economic development paths PRODUCTION Source: Fischer et al., 2002 2080 2050 B1 B2 A2 2020 NET IMPORTS, CEREALS 1990 0 100 200 300 Cereal Net Imports (million tons) 400 Economic Impacts of Climate Change Hadley A1F1 Scenario 2080 % Ag GDP World -1.5 Developed -0.5 North America 7.5 Europe -14.7 Devloping Africa Latin america Asia -1.9 -4.9 3.7 -4.3 % Cereal Production -1.4 2.8 1.3 -3.4 -3.9 -0.6 15.9 -8.6 World Market prices( % change from Ref Scenario) Cereals 19.5% All crops 10.5% Poeple at Risk of Hunger (millions) 350 300 250 A2 200 B2 150 B1 A1 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Source: Fischer et al., 2002 SOUTH, SOUTEAST and EAST ASIA Poeple at Risk of Hunger (millions) AFRICA Number of People at Risk of Hunger projected for different IPCC economic development paths 600 500 400 A2 B2 300 B1 A1 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Food Insecurity in the World (FAO, 2000) Number of Countries Population 1997 millions Undernourished 1997 millions Average daily food deficit (kcal/capita) Group 1 28 2180 223 240 Group 2 27 1517 339 285 Group 3 23 464 220 360 Food Security: Impact of Climate Change on Food Production, 2080s Number of Countries Population 1995 Undernourished Cereal millions millions 1995 mill. tons Production Cereal Gap 1995 mill. tons Climate Impact 2080s mill. tons LOSING ECHAM4 27 1661 386 362 -12 -60 HadCM2 25 1379 321 277 -10 -156 CGCM1 45 2077 396 467 -12 -135 ECHAM4 20 1592 210 481 -6 99 HadCM2 37 2057 275 598 -8 192 CGCM1 17 540 166 100 -6 42 WINNING Additional number of People at Risk of Hunger Additional Undernourished due to Climate Change (millions) due to Climate Change for socioeconomic conditions of IPCC scenario A2 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) A1FI-HadCm3 A2-CSIRO A2-HadCM3 AFRICA B2-CSIRO ASIA Additional number of undernourished resulting in BLS simulations plotted against different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated climate changes in 2080s, for projections of HadCM3 and CSIRO models OTHER B2-HadCM3 B1-CSIRO B1-HadCM3 0 50 100 150 200 Additional Undernourished due to Climate Change (millions) Source: Fischer et al., 2002 Food Systems Policy Issues and Methodology Challenges • Sustainability of Land Use Systems – Economy-Environment Relations – Efficiency vs. Equity • Millennium Development Goals Spatially disaggregated modeling Methodological foundations and applications for treating heterogeneity - Theoretical foundations of aggregation (over heterogeneous environments, actors, markets, commodities) - Downscaling methods Cross-sector linkages: - Urbanization; Infrastructure development - Water supply and use - Technological change - Globalization and trade Food Systems Policy Issues and Methodology Challenges • GHG stabilization • Vulnerability, adaptation capacity • Framework for adaptation and mitigation Climate change impacts Adaptation needs and options Land-based mitigation strategies - Biomass energy - Afforestation - Land use patterns and management Climate variability and extreme events Treatment of uncertainty