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The Politics of Climate Change Climate change What prevents the international community from responding effectively to climate change? 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Climate change –policy options Is global warming taking place? Is human activity contributing to climate change? Yes Yes Should we spent resources on mitigating climate change or on coping with it? For mitigation: only ‘real’ solution is a total turnaround For adaptation: less expensive/takes advantage of economic and technological progress 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Unresolved questions? What is undisputed: Human activity has increased the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) concentration. What is disputed: How important is human activity for climate change? How should we deal with it (combating or coping)? Who should pay for climate change measures? 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Skeptics Is CO2 really the main culprit for climate change? Is there a linear relationship between increasing C02 levels and warming? How does the trapping capacity change with rising levels? What happened in the Earth’s past when C02 levels were high (due to volcanic activities, etc.)? What else affects climate change? 4/16/2008 Examples: Sun cycles, cosmic radiation, sea currents… Hans Peter Schmitz Global response 1950s: First scientific evidence for human role in increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs). 1985-87: UN Climate Change conferences. 1988: Canada demands a 20 per cent reduction of C02 emissions below 1988 levels by 2005. 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Scientific evidence 1988: Creation of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, membership: more than 2,000 scientists). 1992: Adoption of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). Voluntary commitment by developed nations (Annex I) to return to 1990 emission levels by 2000. 1994: UNFCC comes into force. 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Kyoto Protocol Mandates an average of 5% reduction by 2012 below 1990 levels. Decrease: 8% European Union; 7% US; 6% Canada/Japan; 0% Russia/New Zealand; No agreement on non-Annex-I countries. Implementation: lower emissions, enhance “sinks” (carbon sequestration; grow forests), emissions trading with other Annex I states; 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Bush Administration 2005: Kyoto comes into force after Russia signs on in late 2004 (55% of the Annex I countries needed). Federal government/Bush administration Kyoto protocol harmful to US economic interests. disputes scientific evidence for climate change. Wants all countries to reduce GHGs. 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Private sector and local levels Local levels and private sector State and city initiatives to decrease ‘carbon footprint’ NGOs and MNCs: Private Sector Initiatives Insurance companies (Swiss Re) 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Explaining failure Why has Kyoto failed? US power and domestic interests Collective action problem Failure of Kyoto to include developing nations Incentives for free-riding Science Powerful domestic business lobby/consumer resistance Link between rising carbon dioxide and temperature levels? Is mitigation or adaptation the appropriate response? Technology 4/16/2008 Alternatives to fossil fuels are not readily available Hans Peter Schmitz Theories of IR Neo-Realism: self-interested resource exploitation The issue is not yet a national security problem. Countries should pursue their autonomous strategies. Neo-liberal Institutionalism: collective action problem The issue is a typical collective action problem requiring coordination among states. Domestic business interests (in the US) prevail over environmental activists. Idealism/Constructivism: global governance The environment is a global challenge to the nation state. Climate requires the creation of a world government. 4/16/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz Nuclear energy? Is nuclear energy the solution? Realism: YES Institutionalism: YES The major long-term concern is dependency (on oil). Peaceful use of nuclear energy will contribute to economic growth and inter-state cooperation. Idealism/Identity: YES/NO Yes: Climate change requires immediate response. No: Nuclear energy is unsafe and environmentally destructive (no safeHans disposal policy for waste). 4/16/2008 Peter Schmitz