* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download PPT file - Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
North Report wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Business action on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change Eugene S. Takle Agronomy Department Geological and Atmospheric Science Department Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 [email protected] Lecture to Political Science Class on Science, Technology and Public Policy Iowa State University 7 February 2004 PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline Evidence for global climate change Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations Simulations of global climate and future climate change Implications for stream flow Impact of 2004 election decisions Summary PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2004 Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2040 2004 Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Stabilization at 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100 PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Associated Climate Changes Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report 40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth IPCC Summary for Policy Makers An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries Further action is required to address remaining gaps in information and understanding For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin 119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL Approximately one observing station per sub-basin Approximately one model grid point per sub-basin Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Long-term, continuous watershed simulation model (Arnold et al,1998) Assesses impacts of climate and management on yields of water, sediment, and agricultural chemicals Physically based, including hydrology, soil temperature, plant growth, nutrients, pesticides and land management Daily time steps PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS SWAT Output with Various Sources of Climate Input Calibration of SWAT: Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL Calibration of SWAT: Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL Validation of SWAT: Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL Validation of SWAT: Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under Climate Change with Various Model Biases Relation of Runoff to Precipitation for Various Climates Election 2004 Issues and Their Time Scales What are the election issues in 2004, and how long will decisions on these issues have an impact? PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2004 Issues Jobs US Economy National security, terrorism War Environment PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2004 Issues: Jobs The average American changes jobs about every ? 7 years? Tenured position at a university ~ 35 years -> Time scale of jobs 7-35 years PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2004 Issues: US Economy Economic cycles last about 5 years Home mortgage lasts about 20 years Factory is productive ~50 years -> Time scale of economic decisions: 5-50 years PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2004 Issues: National Security Nazi Germany: 10 years (impact 50 years) China ?? Rawanda ?? -> Time scale of terrorism: 5-50 years PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2004 Issues: War Wars last 2-5 years Impact of WWII ~50-100 years -> Time scale of war 2-100 years PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Decisions we make now Determine global warming For the next 200-2,000 years 2004 Issues: Environment (Global Warming) Time scale of environmental decisions on global warming: 200 - 2,000 years !! PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2004 Issues Jobs: 7-35 years US Economy: 5-50 years National security, terrorism: 5-50 years War: 2-100 years Environment: 200-2,000 years PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information See my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse Contact me directly: [email protected] PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS