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Future climate change drives increases in forest fires and summertime Organic Carbon Aerosol concentrations in the Western U.S. Dominick Spracklen, Jennifer Logan, Loretta Mickley, Rokjin Park Shiliang Wu, Rose Yevich Mike Flannigan, Tony Westerling, Dan Jaffe Boreal wildfire and climate Climate Change Air Quality Visibility GHGs OC / BC aerosols CO Less fires….. Increasing Rainfall Increasing Temperature Longer fire seasons, more fires…. Climate change and Forest Fires Area burned and temperature in Canada Predicted ratio of area burned in 3 X CO2 compared to preindustrial CO2 [Gillet et al., 2004] [Flannigan et al., 2005] Climate impact on fire may be complex and vary regionally due to changes in temperature and precipitation Historical Wildfire Records in Western US Large increase in wildfires after the mid 1980s. Westerling et al. 2006 Emissions of OC Biogenic OC Large Fire Years Wildfire OC Large interannual variability in wildfire emissions. How does this impact atmospheric OC? OC concentration / μg m-3 OC concentration / μg m-3 Impact of variability of fires on atmospheric OC Observations (IMPROVE) GEOS-chem Global CTM IMPROVE GEOS-chem 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.1 19801984 GEOS-chem Climatological fires Jun-Aug mean at IMPROVE sites W of 100oW 0.2 0.3 OCbiob emission / Tg Interannual variability in summertime OC concentrations driven by wildfires. Predicting climate change impacts on forest fires and Air Quality GISS general circulation model 1950 Spin-up Area Burned Regressions Predict Area Burned 2000 changing greenhouse gases (A1 scenario) 2025 2050 2100 MM5 Mesoscale model archive met fields GEOS-CHEM Global chemistry model archive chemistry Calculate emissions 2075 archive met fields CMAQ Regional chemistry model Predicting forest fire area burned Observed daily Temperature, Wind speed, Rainfall, RH Area burned database (1o x 1o) Canadian Fire Weather Index System Aggregate area burned to ecosystem Stepwise linear regression between meteorological/forest moisture variables & area burned [Flannigan et al. 2005] Daily forest moisture parameters Linear stepwise regression Predictors of Area Burned Aggregated ecosystems (similar vegetation / climate) 6.7 105.8 3.6 11.6 12.8 151.6 4.8 51.8 17.5 25.4 1980 – 2004 Totals [Westerling et al., 2002] Area Burned / 106 acres Biomass consumed/ Tg 4.5 9.8 Bailey (1994) classification Pacific North West and Rocky Mountain Forests are most important for biomass consumption and regional air quality Pacific Northwest/Cascade Forests. Annual Area Burned Observed Area Burned Predicted Area Burned Area burned / 106 Ha Regression against linear area burned 0.5 0.25 1980 May-Oct mean Drought Code 1980 1990 2000 R2=52% 1990 2000 May-Oct mean Temperature 1980 1990 2000 Regressions ‘explains’ 50-57% of variability in annual area burned in forest ecosystems. Best predictors are often Temperature or Fuel Moisture Index. Temperature / oC Rainfall / mm day-1 Trends in GISS western US mean July Met variables 1995 CO2 A1 Scenario CO2 GISS GCM predicts ~1.8 K increase in western US July mean temperature by 2055. How does this impact wildfires? Annual area burned 1980-2055 Observed Predicted +49% 2045-2054 AB compared to 1995-2004 +87% All ecosystems show an increase in Area Burned of between 7 and 87% driven by increasing temperature. Annual total W. US Forest Fire Biomass Consumption 1996-2055 1996-2004 mean / Tg yr-1 Observed 19.15 Predicted 20.67 Observed Predicted Use stochastic placement of wildfires within ecosystem and ecosystem specific fuel loads. +50% Predicted mean biomass consumption for 2045-2054 is 50% greater than during 1996-2004 Predicted Organic Carbon concentrations in W. US for 2046-2050 OC concentration / μg m-3 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2046-2050 A1 scenario CO2 1996-2000 Implications for visibility. Mean summertime visibility degrades from ~13.2dv (19962004) to ~13.8dv (2046-2050). +20% Summertime OC in 2046-2050 predicted to increase by 20-25%. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Jun-Aug mean at IMPROVE sites But need longer model runs…. Conclusions •In western US interannual variability in summertime OC is driven by variabilty in fires. •Increased fires in western US since the mid 1980s has likely caused increase in summertime OC concentrations. •Regressions of annual area burned in western US capture 50-57% of interannual variablity. Temperature and fuel moisture are best predictors. •Using GISS GCM output, forest fire emissions of OC predicted to increase by 50% by 2045-2055 (over 1995-2004) resulting in mean summertime OC to increase by 20-25%.