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Estimating and Comparing Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Projects in Africa – Project AF47: Technical Progress Mac Callaway AIACC African Workshop March 13-15, 2002 Benefit-Cost definitions for Adaptation Assessments • Climate change damages – the net economic loss that occurs if climate changes, relative to the reference case (no climate change, no project). • The benefits of adaptation – the reduction in climate change damages, relative to the reference case if the project is implemented (i.e., the climate change damages avoided by the project). • Adaptation costs – the real cost of the additional resources used to derive the project’s adaptation benefits. • The net benefits of adaptation – adaptation benefits minus adaptation costs. • Imposed costs of climate change – the net economic losses due to climate change that can not be avoided by the project. What we are doing • Developing analytical tools and procedures for estimating adaptation benefits and costs at project level • Implement tools and procedures on selected projects, we are identifying, in – water resources and/or – agriculture – with focus on benefits from “market” activities • Potential candidate projects: • Completed • Planned/proposed • Hypothetical – Development and other “no regrets” projects – “Pure” CC adaptation projects (if there is such a thing) Climate Change - EnvironmentBehavior Interactions Δ Investment & Management Climate Δ Δ Net Primary Production Production Δ Goods and Services & Resource Allocation Δ Investment & Management Δ Resource Supply Preliminary Project Concepts: South Africa 1. Water supply development and cost recovery, probably in a small Western Cape Basin 2. Alternatives for offsetting the impacts of climate change on urban wastewater treatment in Cape Town 3. Improvement of on-farm management to adjust to climate variability, probably in the Thukela Basin. Preliminary Project Concepts: The Gambia • Options for controlling the salt water tongue in the lower Gambia River: – Construction of dykes – Upstream flow regulation – Water reallocation • Revision of zoning/design standards – Flood plane zoning – Salinity risk zoning – Updating building codes Problem Areas • Translating adaptation options into projects – Defining project boundaries/participants – Developing an implementation plan – Linking policy measures to incentives to adaptation actions • Paucity of models and data for: – Resource allocation/water demand – Valuation of inputs/outputs – Especially a problem with non-commercial agricultural sector Solutions • Keep searching for information about: – Specific projects that fit our needs – Existing studies/models/data related to: • Water demand and valuation • Water allocation • If that fails – To shift our focus more in the direction of options instead of projects – Focus more on valuing climate change damages, avoided damages and the imposed cost of climate change at a larger scale. The Concept Behind our Approach • In agriculture and water resources infrastructure and “management” are always adapted to, or adjusting to, existing climate variability (using available information). • The greater the variability, the more it costs to adjust both infrastructure and management to the “existing climate”. • But will probably be less costly for areas with high CV to adapt to CC compared to areas with low CV • When CC can’t be detected reliably, people adjust to CC as if it were CV using short-run measures, leading to partial adjustment. Benefits depend on – Existing CV – Overlap between CV and CC • When CC is detected reliably, there are greater opportunities to adjust capital stocks (long-run measures), leading to full adjustment.