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PORTUGAL
Álvaro Martins
CEEETA
ISEG - Technical University of Lisbon
(Member of the technical team in charge of the National
Program for Climate Change)
1. INTRODUCTION

On May 2000 the Portuguese Government
has defined the main guidelines to prepare
the National Program on Climate Change
(NPCC).

Under the leadership of the Environment
Institute (Environment Ministry) a technical
team was created having as main objective
the elaboration of the National Program on
Climate Change till the end of 2002.
2. National Program for Climate
Change - METHODOLOGY
i)
Using as baseline an energy simulation demand model,
projections of the main GHG emitted by the energy sector for
the period 2000-2015 have been prepared;
ii) A first document has been published on December 2001 as a
basis for public discussion;
A set of Policies and Measures have been proposed as a basis
for discussion with the economic agents and with the public
services responsible for sector policies;
iii) A new version of the NPCC will be prepared till the end of
2002, after a more complete assessment of the GHG
emissions, of the policies, measures and instruments to fulfil
the Portuguese targets from the burden share agreement.
3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios
methodology

Social, economic and technological scenarios have been
extensively used in the past for energy planning purposes.

A very complete exercise of long term scenario building has
been carried out in Portugal in 1994/1995, which is still a
reference.

In 1999 one of the scenarios published in 1995 has been
retained and improved in order to be considered as a basis
for energy modelling. This scenario has been considered for
the first version of the NPCC.

The long term scenarios are not defined on a regular basis.
3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios
methodology
Macroeconomic
scenarios
Energy demand
scenarios
Energy supply
Ministry of Economy –
Planning Department
General Direction for
Energy
GHG from
outside the
energy sector
Emission
projections
3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios
methodology
Industrial sectors considered:
Food
Chemicals, rubber and
plastic
Beverages
Ceramics
Tobacco
Glass
Textile and clothes
Other non-metallic
Shoes
minerals
Wood, cork and furniture
Metallurgy
Pulp, paper and printing
Metal industries
Construction

4. GHG PROJECTIONS - the 1999
long term scenario (2000-2020)
1995 macro-economic scenarios
GNP growth rates
1995-2000
2001-2007
2008-2015
1995-2015
Scenario A1
2,5
2,0
2,1
2,2
Scenario B2
3,3
3,4
3,2
3,3
Scenario C3
3,7
3,6
3,8
3,7
5. MODELLING



Besides de economic models used in scenario
building, an energy simulation model is used to
analyse energy final demand and estimate the
emissions of GHG.
For the centralized electricity supply we rely and
criticise the results published by the National Grid
obtained from optimisation models of the electric
sector.
A methodology for optimal policy design and
estimation of shadow prices is not yet available.
5. MODELLING

The main driving variables for energy
consumption are:
– - population, income and specific energy
consumptions (technology), for the residential
sector,
– - value added for the productive sectors,
– - mobility, infrastructure development, specific
consumptions, for the transport sector,
– - hypothesis on technology, energy price system
and behaviour are also part of the scenarios.
6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS
A “base line” or “business as
usual” scenario is defined.
As “base line” we consider a
scenario where policies,
measures and instruments
embodied do not take into
account the Kyoto targets
for Portugal. It includes
P&M already in operation
in May 2001.
These projections, produced
in 1999, will be updated
during 2002.
Tg CO2 eq.
+46%
100
90
Meta Quioto (a)
Portugal (a)
80
70
60
50
1990
1995
2000
(a) including carbon sinks.
2005
2010
7. POLICIES AND MEASURES
 The
following policies and measures have
been proposed for public discussion.
 They are classified as:
– Immediate P&M
 Those
P&M recently approved or being studied
but not considered in the base line scenario;
– Additional P&M
 New
P&M necessary to fulfil the Portuguese
emission targets.
7. POLICIES AND MEASURES
IIm
mm
meeddiiaattee PP&
&M
M
A
Addddiittiioonnaall PP&
&M
M
Mitigation
ENERGY SUPPLY
Policies a nd Measures
Renewables electricity
supply
Energy efficiency in the
electric system
potential
(Tg CO
2
eq.
Policies a nd Measures
)
3,3–4,1
0,7
Mitigation
potential
(Tg CO
Me1: Energy efficiency in the
electric system
Me2: Cogeneratio
Me3: DSM
Me4: Measures for the oil refining
system
Me5: Substituição de combustíveis e
centrais
Me6: Further steps for the
development of the gas and
electricity internal market
2
eq.
)
0,3
0,45 – 0,9
2,9
n.d.
2,9
n.a.
7. POLICIES AND MEASURES
IIm
mm
meeddiiaattee PP&
&M
M
A
Addddiittiioonnaall PP&
&M
M
Mitigation
Policies and Measures
potential
Mitigation
Policies a nd Measures
(Tg CO eq.)
(Tg CO eq.)
INDUSTRY
2
Emissions control
RUE
0,6
0,11
potential
2
Mi1: Emissions control in the big
polluting sectors
Mi2: Emissions control in SME
Mi3: Energy services
n.d.
n.d.
0,3 – 0,7
7. POLICIES AND MEASURES
IIm
mm
meeddiiaattee PP&
&M
M
A
Addddiittiioonnaall PP&
&M
M
Mitigation
Reform of the automobile
tax system
Reform of the circulation
automobile tax
National Plan for the
network of logistic
platforms
ON
TRANSPORTATI
Policies a nd Measures
potential
(Tg CO
2
eq.
1,5 - 1,9
n.d.
n.d.
Mitigation
Policies a nd Measures
)
potential
(Tg CO
Mt1: Specific CO2 emissions
reduction in automobiles
Mt2: Gasoline and gasoil price
increases
Mt3: Railway development
Mt4: Traffic management
Mt5: Load factor improvement in
transportation
2
eq.
)
0,4
0,2 –0,3
n.d.
1,2
0,2
7. POLICIES AND MEASURES
IIm
mm
meeddiiaattee PP&
&M
M
AAddddiittiioonnaall PP&
&M
M
Mitigation
Policies a nd Measures
potential
Mitigation
Policies a nd Measures
(Tg CO eq.)
(Tg CO eq.)
SERVICES
RESIDENTIAL AND
2
Renewables development
- Solar hot water
National Program for RUE in
buildings
1
0,5
n.d.
potential
2
Mds1: Reinforcement of the
National Program for RUE in
buildings
Mds2: Disseminação de
informação, às empresas do sector
dos serviços
Mds3: Information campaigns
Mds4: Tax deductions for RUE
Mds5: Public procurement
0,3
n.d.
n.d.
0,01
n.d.
7. POLICIES AND MEASURES
IIm
mm
meeddiiaattee PP&
&M
M
A
Addddiittiioonnaall PP&
&M
M
Mitigation
RESIDU
ES
FOREST
Policies a nd Measures
potential
(Tg CO
Sustainable development of the n.d.
Portuguese forest
Urban solid waste plan
Industrial residues plan
Hospital residues plan
IPPC directive
2
eq.
Mitigation
Policies a nd Measures
)
potential
(Tg CO
Mf1: Forest fires
Mf2: Forest management
Mf3: Research on carbon sinks
Mf4: Encrease of the life cycle of
the forest products
Mr1: Biogas for heat and
electricity generation using animal
residues
2
eq.
n.d.
2,2
n.d.
n.d.
1,2
)
REFERENCES
 Direcção-Geral de Energia (1995) – Energia 1995-2015,
Estratégia para o sector energético, September 1995.
 Direcção-Geral de Energia (1999a) - A procura de energia em
Portugal 2000-2020 – Sector dos Transportes, (working
paper) DSPAE/DP, June 1999.
 Direcção-Geral de Energia (1999b) - A procura de energia
em Portugal 2000-2020 – Sector Industrial, (Working paper)
DSPAE/DP, June 1999
 GASA-DCEA-FCT (2000) – Emissão e controlo de gases com
efeito de estufa em Portugal. Ministério do Ambiente e do
Ordenamento do Território, Março 2000
 Instituto do Ambiente (2001) - Programa Nacional Para as
Alterações Climáticas, December 2001
 Instituto do Ambiente (2001) - Programa Nacional Para as
Alterações Climáticas – estudos de base para a
fundamentação do programa, December 2001
REFERENCES

Information on the energy scenarios, hypothesis and
parameters used are available from reports published by
Direcção-Geral de Energia (1995) (1999).

The National Inventories are available at www.dga.minamb.pt.

The Portuguese National Program for Climate Change
(2001) can be downloaded from www.dga.min-amb.pt.