Download X - The Heartland Institute`s International Conferences on Climate

–
-
International Conference on Climate Change, NEW YORK
March 10th 2009 sponsored by Heartland Institute.
What Does & Does Not cause
Climate Change
+ advances in the Solar Weather
Technique & Forecast of World
temperatures to 2030 & beyond
• Evidence based
science !
• Beware of confusing
Cause, Effect &
‘Association’!
The Long Range Forecasters
Piers Corbyn*
* SWT extreme
events
forecasts at
conference
www.weatheraction.com
with Judith Humprey, Kirill Kuzanyan (IZMIRAN Russ Acad Sci) & Ulric Lyons
* originator of the Solar Weather Technique of Long Range Forecasting and founder of
WeatherAction 177 Borough High St, London SE1 1HRTel: +44 (0)20 7939 9946.; +447985734471
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What Does & Doesn’t drive Climate
One X and you are out!
Evidence => Temps
Candidate
CO2
(Extra solar)
Cosmic Rays
Temps Temps
1975 to last 100 last
2000
or1k or 25k yrs
(smoothed)
10k yrs

X
X*



?
?


22 yr
= might explain
signal in X = doesn't work
world
temps
X
* This shows that on v
long time scales CO2 is
driven BY temps
X
NB Total Energy flux
of solar particles ~300
times Cosmic rays.
?
X
Light variations in solar
cycle less important
than solar magnetic (but
UV is important)


(avoid confusion with
solar muons etc)
Light
variations in
solar cycle
Solar Activity &
MAGNETIC
Link/modulation
ALSO (SWT) has
predictive powers
12 months ahead
Why GW is renamed Climate Change
The theory of ‘Global warming’ holds that Man’s CO2 causes Global
Warming and this causes other Climate Change and extremes.
CO2
Global Warming
Climate Change
We have heard a lot about weather extremes & ‘Climate Change’
Since 1998 CO2 has gone up but World
Temperatures have gone down.
ALL subseqent years* have been colder than 1998
Or In terms of two year moving averages the peak was 2002/3
*From Official estimates of world temperatures:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3vgl.txt
So we see claimed extra effects – ‘Climate Change’ without extra temperature rise to cause them !!!
Problems for GW ‘Standard Orthodoxy’ - 1
Problems for GW ‘Standard Orthodoxy’ - 2
Rather than face continued
embarrassment from scientists
who requested the
temperatures be also
published, the most recent
IPCC ‘report’ leaves out even
the historical CO2 graph!
The Global Warmers’ last gasps
Claim
Refutation
“CO2 levels
(i) Anything X zero effect = zero
have never
(ii) No evidence for this. There are no CO2 spikes in
the past ice cores because CO2 is a gas and
risen so fast or
diffuses through centuries of ice. This current
been so high”
CO2 spike will be invisible in 1k yrs time.
“ONLY CO2
Really - like present world cooling!!??
etc can explain The graphs making this claim are
recent
smudge and fudge. (Slides at end)
Geomagnetic activity smoothed over 22yrs (solar
temperature
magnetic period) fits temperature much better.
rises”
Temps drive CO2 as ice ages end.
Fast CO2 changes (like now) are hidden
At the end of
the last ice age
temperature
changes LEAD
CO2 by 800yrs
Similar leads are in Antarctic
Termination III 240kyr ago
(Caillon et al Science Mar 03)
CO2 diffuses
through ice
CO2 data points are at best 200yrs apart
and show only small variations between
points. This is because CO2 is a gas and
diffuses into centuries of ice layers. The
present CO2 spike will amount to a mere
blip in 1,000yrs time.
There is No
Evidence that the
present CO2 rapid
rise is unique.
Inconvenient Truths for GW Orthodoxy!
Time
Solar Activity drives Climate
– Oman stalagmite data 9.5kyr to 6k yr before present
Growth layers of stalagmite
in a Cave in Oman show:
Close
correlation
between
Particles from
the Sun* &
Temperature**
{*C14 proxy from Cosmic Ray Flux which
is reduced by Solar magnetic-particle
activity. **O18 isotope is Climate proxy}
Similar
correlations exist
over the last 500
Million years
See Neff et al, Nature May 2001; Veizer,
Geoscience Canada March 05
Proxies drivers and modulators
Beware confusion of cause, effect & association!
Increased solar (magnetic) activity excludes more cosmic rays
(extra-solar high energy) from solar system and Earth. Cosmic rays
convert N14 to C14 so C14 is a reverse proxy for solar activity.
ΔC14 = – Δ Solar activity => 11yr signal
Also note solar Cycle length = 1/ solar activity approx.
Geomagnetic activity = Solar activity <11yr>
X Earth magnetic cross section (depends on slow
changing Earth’s magnetic field) => 11yr signal
Temperature = Particle EFFECT
= Geomag activity X magnetic linkage to lower
atmosphere via poles etc <22yr> => 22yr signal
Solar magnetic cycle (22yr) smoothed temps and geomagnetic
activity move together better than anything else.
World Temperatures & Solar Particles (Geomagnetic
Activity), Over Single Solar Cycles
World Temperatures and solar particles move together much better when averaged over
View in NOTES MODE for explanation
the (approx)11yr sunspot cycle, but there is an alternate cycle difference.
31
aa index
Note Colour
change!
0.30
26
0.10
-0.10
aa
16
-0.30
1979-1989
1968-1979
1957-1968
1947-1957
1937-1947
1928-1937
1917-1928
-0.70
1905-1917
6
1893-1905
-0.50
1883-1893
11
1870-1883
© M. Golipour, Weather Action Plc, March 1998
21
Single cycles
Fig 4a. Global Temperature Anomaly [red line] and
geomagnetic activity, aa, [blue line], both averaged for
successive solar cycles (from maximum to maximum).
Global Temperature Anomaly
Global_temp
World Temperatures & Solar particles (Geomagnetic
Activity), Over Double Solar (Hale) Cycles. Shown Moscow July 04
World Temperatures and solar particles move together astoundingly well when
averaged over the Double sunspot cycle.
25
0.05
aa index
-0.05
21
© M. Golipour, Weather Action Plc, March 1998
aa
-0.10
-0.15
19
-0.20
17
-0.25
-0.30
15
-0.35
13
-0.40
1870-1893
1893-1917
1917-1937
1937-1957
1957-1979
Double Solar Cycles
Fig 6a. Global Temperature Anomaly [red line] and geomagnetic
activity, aa, [blue line], both averaged over each double solar
cycle (from maximum to second maximum).
Global Temperature Anomaly
23
0.00
Global_temp
Peaks on this plot mark the main periodicities present in the data
Piers
Corbyn,
Weather
Action
The largest and highly significant signal in World Average Temperature records is the SolarMagnetic, or Hale Double-sunspot cycle; which has averaged 21 to 22 years since 1868
Weather in 21st Century - Answers
The weather extremes of recent years are part of natural
essentially predictable processes*……..
The severe summer floods of 2007 & 2008 were like the
very wet summers of 1875, 1876, 1877 and 1879 associated with the approx 132 yr pattern (6X22=132),
7X19=133
The 2007 & 2008 summer floods were predicted in detail
by the SWT. This flood-likely summers situation can
continue for a few years but is SUBJECT TO other
conditions (SWT) being satisfied.
*As explained by Piers Corbyn to the Imperial College Union President’s
centenary dinner 27th July 2007.
Temperatures (USA) & CO2 1895 to 2008
World Temp
peak 2002/3

LfrEf point(s)
- Official data - Graph by JD’Aleo Sept 2008 Circulated by Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com
World temperatures signals & trends – 3yr moving avs
- Official data - Graph by Judith Humphrey March 2009 for Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com
World temperatures signals & trends – 5 yr moving avs
= Declining phase of Odd solar cycle
= Solar eclipse Dec 1-13 (lunar node pointing to sun near
where earth crosses solar equator downwards) = Lr/fEf
The main world temperature envelope peaks occur in years
following close coincidence of Lr/fEf & Odd solar max +
1yr or the 2 yrs following. Cycles 23 & 17 show this well.
21
9
11
13
15
17
23
19
- Official data - Graph (Temp data) by Judith Humphrey March 2009 for Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com
World temperatures signals & trends – 7 yr moving avs
- Official data - Graph by Judith Humphrey March 2009 for Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com
World temperatures signals & trends – 11 yr moving avs
- Official data - Graph by Judith Humphrey March 2009 for Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com
And a mystery
solved!!
The two graphs are lined up so
that points of the upper graph
(average up to date shown
over double sunspot cycle of
approx 22yr) corresponds to
the date in lower graph, the
smoothed CO2/Soot model
World Temperatures follow what…?
‘TG’ Gap
The ‘soot’ model uses global
‘undimmimng’ (soot
reduction) to explain rises later
in the graph. The solar model
can use the same or effects of
the very rapid motion of the
North magnetic pole.
The CO2/soot model has wide uncertainties which include
different assumptions which might fit OK in one section but not
in others (eg so over any 22yr section). The idea there is even
rough closeness to the range needs hidden inconsistencies.
Answer to ‘TG’ gap
question re Inst Of
Physics Presentation
2004 lies in Solar magnetic - Lunar
modulation
– to be explained at
Presentation!
Solar particle & magnetic
activity - OR A ‘special mix’ of CO2
(nature & Man) + CH4 +
N2O + O3 + volcanoes +
soot/aerosols + some
sunlight +..
If the Man-Earth ‘special
mix’ is in charge then how
does the sun decide to
send out particles to
match this Earth-based
driver?!
How can solar particles & events change the weather? - 1
Lunar Nodal regression, R = 1/18.61 yr, & Magnetic linkages Z/2 = 1/22.2 yr
Beats for 2R & (Z/2): 2R /(Z/2) = 2.37 => B = 2R-2(Z/2); 1/B = ~59 yr
Beats for R & (Z/2) :
R /(Z/2) = 1.18 => B = R- (Z/2);
1/B = ~118yr
These are ‘envelope’ periods - a guide not precise predictors of detailed
repeat periods. So, eg, close repeats are not 118 yrs before 2002 ( =1884)
but the odd cycles 11 before and 13 after which moderately satisfy the
Lunar node & Solar-Earth ‘falling’ node coincidence rule.
How can solar particles & events change the weather? - 2
Signals of note – all observed in spectrum to within uncertainties
Geomagnetic
activity
~ 11yr = Solar cycle
World Temps ~ 22yr = solar period doubled due
to magnetic linkage modulation.
Lunar apsides (perigeeapogee line) advance ~ 8.85yr
Lunar nodes (either direction)
~ 9.3yr
Solar wind – Moon – Planets angular momentum interactions
Nodal period Solar magnetic rotation
days
(synodic) days
Earth-Moon
27.212d
27.2
Pluto-Charon
6.3 – 6.4d
25.5d
Ratio
1.0
4.0
Earth/Moon & Pluto/Charon are both ‘comparable mass’ pairs of bodies. All the
moons of all other planets are relatively much smaller. This special relationship
between the sun spin relative rate & the nodal crossing period of moons with their
planets is not seen anywhere else in the solar system.
How can solar particles & events change the weather? - 3
How can solar particles &
events change weather? - 4
Solar UV & Particle bursts affect
the stratosphere and jet stream. Jet
stream shifts are the main
immediate causes of weather &
climate change.
Many of these changes described by ‘Red
Spikes’ & ‘SWIPS’ (Solar Weather
Impact Periods) are predictable by the
Solar Weather Technique many months
ahead with 85% Success rate for SWT
predicted extreme events (in eg 66 world
extreme predictions in last 12 months)
Spectacular Success of SWT from 2007
- from up to 11 months ahead
June to Dec 2007 (SWT23A) WeatherAction’s Long range SWT Forecasts
successfully predicted:
• All 11 flood periods in Britain summer 2007 success for 10/11 in
England/Wales - one missed and hit Scotland
• The North Sea storm surge – which came on 9th Nov – 2,000 evacuated from
Yarmouth, unprecedented raising of sea defences in Holland
• “Extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build up of swell” for near
end Nov (extended to1/2Dec) – confirmed by highest ever recorded waves in
western Britain (forecast from 11 months ahead)
Success score for Floods / rain / wind storms June
to Dec 2007: 14/16
Why doesn’t this get headlined in The Times, Guardian, BBC etc?
Why do successful long range forecasts get attacked?!
Why do ‘GWers’ falsify WeatherAction forecasts in order to discredit them?
The 85%+ success rate of Weather Action extreme events
predictions is maintained or surpassed in 2008 & 2009 (now
SWT25d) & extended in scope around the world.
SWT Climate Forecast – issued Jan 08
World temperatures trend will continue
down in 2008 and all the way to 2013 and
almost certainly beyond
WeatherAction’s Climate forecast issued in Jan 2007 that world
temperatures in 2007 would NOT rise in the way the UN’s Climate
Change panel predicted has been confirmed.
“For 2008 the general downward trend of world temperature
will continue. World temperatures, averaged over pairs of
consecutive years, peaked in 2002/3 coinciding with the peak
of the 22yr world temperature cycle which is driven by the
sun’s magnetic cycle. The Solar-particle corridor is open for
more – predictable - solar driven weather extremes in 2008”
says Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction.
NOTE. Scaled
Hale Cycles are
all made 22
‘pseudo-years’
long so shorter
cycles are
stretched a little
and longer ones
compressed so
Minima and
Maxima coincide
for stacking
purposes etc.
Piers Corbyn, Weather Action
Geomagnetic Activity, which is a measure of solar particles hitting the Earth’s
magnetic field (which extends 7 Earth radii into space), mainly follows the 11yr sunspot cycle
World
Temps
follow
the Solar
Magnetic
cycle
Peaks on
average are
2 years after
Odd
Maximum.
The Max for
cycle 23
was in 2001.
Smoothed
(2yr) world
temps show
a peak in
2002/3.
Piers
Corbyn,
Weather
Action
Solar charged particles come in essentially 11year cycles but the magnetic connectivity of the Sun-Earth system, which enables the particles to penetrate
the Earth’s atmosphere further, changes from strong to weak over periods of Hale cycle length. This causes the Hale cycle of World temperatures.
Strong linkage starts just after the Odd Max (eg Cycle 23 max 2001) and Weak linkage starts just after the even Max (cycle 24 Max will be approx 2012)
Where will world temperatures go?
CO2 - No effect
Solar -Lunar magnetic modulation – Minimum around 2030-32 probably
similar to late 1970s levels.
Magnetic Hale cycle The 22yr peaks of world temps are at Odd max + 2 years (ie
around 2002/03). The Temp minima are at Even max plus 2 (for cycle 24, max =
2013+2=2015). At such times Geomagnetic activity & WORLD temperatures are
OPOSITELY correlated. So although there are some early forecasts of generally low
activity in Solar cycle 24 (eg SSN about 85) these will NOT have a significant reducing
effect on world temperatures. The important thing will be more detail especially of
linkage and weather EVENTS and the next Odd cycle.
‘Slow’ Sun-Earth changes such as a ‘Maunder’ type ‘little ice age ’
minimum. This is a serious possibility inferred by recent lack of solar activity but
yet neither ruled out nor in. For such the next ODD sunspot cycle (cycle 25,
commencing around 2019 peak 2024 end 2030) is critical.
CONCLUSION General cooling to 2030 (& poss beyond) reaching
1970 levels or below. The possibility of getting much colder by then or by
2040 – to below 1910 levels is not ruled out and can probably be estimated
with further theoretical research and one more year of solar observation.
Sun-Earth
magnetic
linkage
changes
through
each Hale
cycle
There is a
maximum in the
sensitivity of
Temps and other
weather
variables to
changes in solar
particles. This
occurs at OddEven solar
Minimum (ie the
start of even
cycle) = about
2006/2007 hence recently
more weather
contrasts/
extremes.
Odd->Even Magnetic Linkage (Even Cycle Max)
Hale phase 17-5. NB strong/weak defns vary
Even->Odd Magnetic Linkage (Odd Cycle Max)
Hale phase 6-16
Piers Corbyn, Weather Action
The IPCC says Man’s CO2 + dust etc
drives Global Warming
The IPCC tries to match world temperatures to a combination of various factors
(notably volcanoes & dust) and man’s CO2 – the vital factor they say.
Important
When the IPCC ‘include solar
variations’ they do NOT mean
changes in particle and
magnetic effect, they only
mean light – which changes
by only 0.1%. The relative
change in solar particle and
magnetic effect in one solar
cycle is 50,000 times larger.
Notice this
uses a boost
of global
‘undimming’
(ie reductions
in dust/
aerosols)
towards the
end of the
period to get
a better fit.
(From http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-4.htm) Figure 4: Simulating the Earth’s
temperature variations, and comparing the results to measured changes, can provide insight
into the underlying causes of the major changes.
A climate model can be used to simulate the temperature changes that occur both from natural
and anthropogenic causes. The simulations represented by the band in (a) were done with
only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. Those encompassed by the band in
(b) were done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an estimate of sulphate
aerosols, and those encompassed by the band in (c) were done with both natural and
anthropogenic forcings included. From (b), it can be seen that inclusion of anthropogenic
forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial part of the observed temperature
changes over the past century, but the best match with observations is obtained in (c) when
both natural and anthropogenic factors are included. These results show that the forcings
included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do not exclude the possibility that
other forcings may also have contributed. The bands of model results presented here are for
four runs from the same model. Similar results to those in (b) are obtained with other models
with anthropogenic forcing.
Weather in 21st Century - Answers
The weather extremes of recent years are part of natural
essentially predictable processes……..
The slow sea level (volume)
rise - 6 inches per century will continue even as world
surface cools
{notwithstanding changes in ocean floor shape such as
the appearance of trenches and sumps in the Pacific as
the Indian sub-continent pushes up the Himalayas}
Weather in 21st Century - Answers
The weather extremes of recent years are
part of natural essentially predictable
processes
The ’22yr’ (Solar-Magnetic) cyclical tendency
for more extreme events will continue for a
few years and then decline (NB It is not clockwork!)
Last cycle: - Hot July 84, V cold Feb 86, Storms Oct 87
The SWT Predicted to within a few days from 11
months ahead the major Autumn storms 07
– N Sea storm surge early Nov,
- Giant sea swell (highest ever recorded west BI) end Nov
Weather in 21st Century - Answers
The weather extremes of recent years have been part of
natural essentially predictable processes……..
Supposed man-made Global Warming /
Climate Change extremes as distinct
from natural – eg solar activity driven –
extremes are fiction and will not recur.
Prediction of tendency for extreme events
and actual events is entirely possible and
depends on many factors of cycles and
processess in the Solar Weather Technique.
New!
What Stops CO2 Extra ‘Greenhouse’ effect?
- further to Piers Corbyn International Climate Seminar Stockholm Sept 2006
Extra plant transpiration-Cooling
negates all extra CO2 heating
10% or so of
total evapotranspiration
heat removal
(cooling) is
transpiration
from land
plants. 11%
of 78W/m2 =
8.6 W/m2
Doubling CO2 increases CO2 Greenhouse heating of Earth’s surface by 3.8 W/m2. It also increases plant
growth & therefore transpiration heat removal (cooling) by 43% to 45%. Now, 44% of 8.6 = 3.8 W/m2
3.8 – 3.8 = 0 So CO2 increase has no net effect on world temperatures.
Heat flow in & out of Earth’s surface
New!
[assuming effect of CO2 doubling reliable although that is questioned]
Extra CO2 Ghe if
CO2 doubled =>
(3.8W/m2)
Greenhouse
= H2O (largest
Ghe) + CO2 etc
Net
Radiation in
Sea
Extra
Photosynthesis
transpiration
heat OUTFLOW
if CO2 doubles
approx =
3.8W/m2
evap
- taken up and away
from surface
Plant evap
Long
wave
rad
What to do? – 3 point plan
1. Enjoy life! Enjoy the planet! Don't feel guilty about ‘carbon footprints’.
CO2 is the Gas Of Life (GOL)! More GOL increases the bounteousness of plant & animal life.
Stop real smoke and chemical pollution – GOL (CO2) IS NOT A POLLUTANT.
2. Recognise Man cannot change Climate Change!
The Problem is Climate Change POLICY.
‘Climate Science’ lacks integrity. Science is not driving policy. It’s the other way round! Climate Change ‘science’
is driven by those who benefit from Climate Change Policy. Act on the Charter for Climate Truth:
Prove and predict. Basic standards of science should be applied in Climate science and any theory of Climate
Change must be tested against available recorded data and testable specific predictions made.
Naming & Shaming. Scientists or journalists who make baseless claims or false statements on Climate and weather
should be ‘named and shamed’.
3. Get rid of ‘Green Spivs’ - Call politicians to account.
‘Justify it or drop it’. If they cannot justify a claim they most drop the policy.
Write to them – challenge them in meetings…..
Support Honest green policies for biodiversity & defending nature.
Scrap Climate Change / anti GOL (‘Green’) taxes and policies.
End their world burden - of high energy prices and food price rises and starvation caused by biofuels.
Support the world economy not the green scam – which is the of new bubble
of FALSE VALUE. The climate hype industry are a burden on the world economy & make billions from
carbon trading, windfarms & other green scams, nuclear power, & holding back world development.