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The appliance of science – a policy perspective NERC Ideation Workshop, 30 March 2015 David Warrilow Head of Science DECC Questions, science and policy “The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing.” Albert Einstein “There does not exist a category of science to which one can give the name applied science. There are science and the applications of science, bound together as the fruit of the tree which bears it.” Louis Pasteur Policy challenge of rapid change Total Population of the world by projection variant UN 2011 Source: Future Earth Challenge of a changing climate Is climate change happening? Are humans responsible? How will it change in the future? How will that affect us? IPCC WG1 5th Assessment Report 2013 Broad policy questions What are the risks associated with climate and other environmental changes? What are the causes? How will these risks change in the future? What are the strategic options to reduce these risks? Can we deal with the problem at source (mitigation)? Can we reduce the effects (adaptation)? Who needs to act? What are the costs? What specific options need to be developed? Are there side effects? Who are the winners and losers? How do we convince others to accept the need for change? Does climate change cause extremes? Is the extreme event we experience due to climate change? Will extremes be worse in the future? How can we adapt to reduce risks Challenges of Adaptation Prediction uncertainty UKCP09 UK Adaptation Programme (2013) “A society which makes timely, far-sighted and well-informed decisions to address the risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate” Building the UK’s resilience to climate change is an economic, social and environmental challenge that cuts across every sector of society. The Challenge of Mitigation. Climate Change and Energy 11 UK Commitments to reduce GHG emissions (CCC) Long term aim: 80% reduction by 2050 Budget Carbon budget level % reduction below base year 1st Carbon budget (2008-12) 3,018 MtCO2e 23% 2nd Carbon budget (2013-17) 2,782 MtCO2e 29% 3rd Carbon budget (2018-22) 2,544 MtCO2e 35% by 2020 4th Carbon budget (2023-27) 1,950 MtCO2e 50% by 2025 Progress on budget The carbon plan 2011 Sector options: • Power generation, • Industry • Transport, • Energy efficiency • Waste • Agriculture Emissions Trading 2050 Calculator – analysing options 2050 Analysis Product My2050 Web Tool Excel Spreadsheet Audience Educational tool and initial engagement for members of the public Technical expert stakeholders and well-informed public Technical expert stakeholders and policy-makers Complexity 15 Innovation is essential Need for a global agreement “ Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.” Barack Obama, US President, January 2014 “ Don’t get left behind. Don’t be on the losing side of history… Let us take advantage of the opportunities presented by climate action and lay the foundations for a more prosperous and secure future for all.” Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, May 2014 Paris 2015 Securing our prosperity through a global climate change agreement An alternative view… Conclusions Time of unprecedented change Need to manage risks Use opportunities to transform the way we do things Complex interaction of policies and politics Win the communications battle Essential to innovate International agreement is key Time is short.