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B A S I C A Development Perspective of Impacts and Adaptation for Human Settlements, Energy and Industry Manmohan Kapshe Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice to Policy 11-12 May 2006, Hotel Metropolitan Nikko, New Delhi B A S I C Presentation Agenda Present Status National Level Integrated Assessment Impacts and Adaptation Strategies Development and Climate Change Managing Transitions Conclusions B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Present Status Sectoral studies Few impact studies Very few adaptation studies Regional diversity and Geographical differences Limited economic indicators of damages and costs B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Limitations of Approaches Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term interactions between the economy, society, and environment Most of the assumptions are derived from developed world perspective Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events Weak behavioral interfaces Distance between analysts and policy makers B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C National Level Integrated Framework Global Assessment National Assessment National Implementation Measurements National Emissions Global Emissions and Atmospheric Ch ange Emissions, Impacts Energy System Other Emissions Project / Finance Mitigation Mitigation/Adaptation Population, Economy, Technology, Governance Adaptation Feed Back Socio -economic Development Paths Global Policy Regimes and International Agreements Policy Instruments Emissions Trading. Standar ds, Insurance Climate Change Temperature Rise Precipitation Change Sea Level Rise Drought and Flood Adaptation Institutions NATCOM, Ministries, Experts, Regulators Impacts Human and Natural Systems Technology R&D, Technology Transfer and Diffusion B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Analytical Framework Primary data SectorImpact matrix Secondary data Extent of impacts Scenarios Framework for V&A assessment Inputs from experts Total damage costs Risk Mitigation packages Impactunit cost matrix Uncertainty and risk assessment framework Primary data B A Secondary data S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C A Case of Konkan Railway L Traffic volume Maintenance Land slide Vegetation growth Water logging Extreme events Sea level rise Rainfall Temperature Dependent variables Project Components Environmental Variables Forcing Variables Temperature Safety/Efficiency Project Components Environmental Variables M L -- L -- -- -- L -- M M M H L L M -- M L M L -- L M -- M L -- M -- L L -- M L -- L -- M L H M M Rainfall L Sea level rise -- -- Extreme events -- L -- Water logging -- -- -- -- Vegetation growth L L -- -- -- Land slide -- -- -- -- M L Safety/Efficiency -- -- -- -- L -- L Maintenance -- -- -- -- M L H H Traffic volume -- -- -- -- -- -- -- L M M B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons. An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h. Identification of the vulnerable spots and installation of “Raksha Dhaga”. Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity. Adaptation measures should also consider non technological measures B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Climate Change Impact on Energy 14 12 10 GW Capacity for additional demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e. 1.5% of reference case Electricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100 8 6 4 2 0 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 Year 70 60 50 TWh Energy and electricity demand rise from building, irrigation and transport 40 30 20 Energy mix is unaltered. 10 0 1995 B 2010 2025 2040 2055 Years 2070 2085 A S I 2100 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Climate Change Impact on Emissions Million Ton In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e. 1%16 14 rise over reference 12 case 10 Emissions increase in power and transport sectors 8 6 4 2 0 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 Years Cumulative increase 710 MT B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Uncertainty in Socio-economic Factors Population growth Fast changing fertility and mortality rates across the region. Migrations resulting from natural disasters like cyclones, floods and droughts. Urbanization High rate of urbanization is causing pressure on existing infrastructure. Change in energy resource use pattern Economic and social development Level of economic and social development varies across the region. B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Special Characteristics of Settlements, Energy and Industry Impact are more directly associated with climatic extremes rather than averages. Possibility of abrupt climate changes not anticipated by normal response planning Substantively different for relatively developed, industrialized regions vs. less developed regions. Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of higher economic damages in developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed areas. B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Adaptation Strategies Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related events Contingency planning (such as stockpiling) Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning Relocation and industrial restructuring Planning for likely increase in energy demands Adaptation by industry will be associated with marginal adjustments to changes in climatic parameters Attention to the security of transportation and other linkage infrastructures Risk financing and risk mitigation B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Development and Climate: The Perspective Conventional perspective Development is a threat to climate Climate change a barrier to development Development and Climate perspective Pathways that achieve national development goals are climate-friendly Development is the driving force for addressing climate change challenges B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Development and Climate: The Paradigm Climate policies and actions to be driven by national development targets agreed goals under extant international agreements Expanding development and climate frontier though: Innovations (technology, institutions) regional cooperation targeted technology and investment flows aligning stakeholder interests B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Managing Transitions Socio-Economic Demographic: Urban / Rural, Gender ratio, Migration Life Styles Development Indicators Income, Equity, Literacy, Health Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances Political Institutions Laws Policies B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Managing Transitions Energy Resource Supply Side Fossil Futures: Conventional Coal/Gas/ Oil, Unconventional Oil/ Gas Renewable Energy: Bio-technology, Solar Large Hydro: Multi-purpose schemes Nuclear: Fission with zero waste, Fusion Demand side Efficient Appliances Substitutions (e.g. Information for transport) Advance Technologies: Fuel-cell, Storage, Hydrogen, economy, Bio-engineering B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Managing Transitions Technology Logistics: Pipelines Electricity T&D : Decentralized utilities Information: Wireless Nanotechnology Consumption & Life-style Conservation : Substitutions, Recycling City Planning, Architecture/ Building Codes Sustainable Habits / Tradition B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Managing Transitions Environment Awareness: Pressure groups Income-effects: e.g. Kuznets phenomenon Laws and Regulations: Global agreements, National policies Technology: Zero-effluent Processes, Recycling B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Key Issues Contribution of development to mitigation Linkages of impacts and adaptation across sectors Impact of mitigation on energy system, e.g. coal Co-benefits of different emission mitigation pathways Water-energy-food nexus for adaptation Role of development policies to enhance adaptive capacities Continuous v/s extreme events adaptation Needs for risk and uncertainty assessment Role of Technologies Role of Economic instruments (insurance): From non climate to climate focus, eg. Crop insurance Institutional mechanism (communities, civil society, governments) in adaptation B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C Conclusions Identification of critical needs for policy formulation in local context Customization for local legal and policy frameworks Level of exposure to climate change impacts More studies needed on economic indicators of damages and costs Development of an analysis framework to work as broad guideline with flexibility to accommodate situation specific changes Development of community response mechanism Internalization of adaptation approaches in development processes for effective implementation B A S I Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India C B A S I C Thank You. B A S I C