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Explaining Climate Economics: What do we know about unknown risks? Frank Ackerman April 26, 2013 Cutting Edge Webinars Economics at Community Colleges www.synapse-energy.com | ©2013 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. “The greatest market failure the world has seen” www.synapse-energy.com | ©2013 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. “Perception of climate change” James Hansen, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy (PNAS, 2012) [1951-80 means] [1951-80] www.synapse-energy.com | ©2013 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. Hurricanes, moving north Record-breaking drought Dimensions of climate impacts • Fairly soon, and fairly certain – Heat waves, drought, storms, some sea-level rise – Agricultural and coastal property losses – Bad, but not enough to cause a global crisis? • Far future – Worst impacts will be 100+ years from now – Outcomes uncertain due to time span – Is discounting meaningful beyond one lifetime? • Extreme risks – We know that we don’t know the exact tipping points – “Black swans,” fat-tailed probabilities – More research may not resolve uncertainties www.synapse-energy.com | ©2013 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. Hypothetical crop yield Optimal temperatures: old vs new views 100 75 50 25 0 20 25 30 35 40 Temperature • Older research assumed a quadratic relationship between crop yields and temperature – (Illustrative shape, not real data for any actual crop) • Newer research : asymmetric, yields collapse at higher temperatures – (Schlenker & Roberts 2009) The U.S. “social cost of carbon” APPENDIX 15A. SOCIAL COST OF CARBON FOR REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS UNDER EXECUTIVE ORDER 12866 Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, United States Government With participation by Council of Economic Advisers Council on Environmental Quality Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Energy Department of Transportation Environmental Protection Agency National Economic Council Office of Energy and Climate Change Office of Management and Budget Office of Science and Technology Policy Department of the Treasury Their answer: $21/ton CO2 (No office, no address, no website, no publicity, no named authors) www.synapse-energy.com | ©2013 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. Mapping science to economics: 1 Scientific assessment of damages Economic assessment of damages This mapping changes the structure of information www.synapse-energy.com | ©2013 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. $21/ton CO2 Mapping science to economics: 2 Scientific assessment of damages Economic assessment of damages Disastrously high SCC This mapping preserves the structure of information Higher SCC Low SCC ($21?) www.synapse-energy.com | ©2013 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. Our re-analysis of SCC • Based on DICE model, from task force analysis of SCC • Explore effects of four variations 1. Median vs. 95th percentile climate sensitivity (3.0 vs. 7.1) Climate sensitivity: long-run temperature increase from doubling CO2 2. Discount rate: 3.0% vs. 1.5% 3% is conventional, 1.5% is close to the Stern Review value 3. Low-temperature damages: DICE default (low) vs. Hanemann re-estimate at 2.5oC 4. High-temperature damages: DICE default (low) vs. Weitzman estimate (disaster at 12oC) • Result: 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16 variants on SCC Why is climate sensitivity uncertain? • Many positive feedbacks are involved in warming – Warming melts ice, lowers Earth’s surface albedo, so more solar energy is absorbed, causing more warming – Warming accelerates release of CO2 from land, ocean • Let total positive feedback strength = f < 1 – Initial impact of 1 → first-round feedback of f → second-round feedback of f2 , etc. • Cumulative effect = 1 + f + f2 + f3 + … = 1/(1-f) – As f →1, 1/(1-f) gets very large (approaches infinity) • Small errors in measuring f cause large errors in 1/(1-f) – We can only measure f; but the goal is to estimate 1/(1-f) Explanation due to Roe and Baker (2007) www.synapse-energy.com | ©2013 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. Discounting the future • Present value t years from now = future value / (1 + r)t – r = discount rate, a crucial number for climate economics • A high discount rate makes it hard to “see” costs we impose on future generations – What is it worth now to prevent a $1,000 loss in 100-200 years? • Present value of $1,000 in 2113 – At 1.5%: $226 – At 3.0%: $52 • Present value of $1,000 in 2213 – At 1.5%: – At 3.0%: $51 $3 The world will not look like this in 2100! Fraction of output lost to climate damages Four damage functions 1 H-W N-W 0.75 Weitzman: 50% loss at 6o, 99% loss at 12o H-N N-N 0.5 Hanemann at 2.5o 0.25 Nordhaus at 2.5o 0 0 2 4 6 8 Temperature increase ( oC) 10 12 Alternate SCC values, 2010 Social cost of carbon ($/tCO2), 2010 $1,000 $888 $893 $800 $622 $600 $481 $411 $400 $347 $264 $200 $0 $118 $56 $28 N-N $200 $165 $96 H-N $77 N-W $232 $118 H-W Damage functions 1.5%, 95th percentile 1.5%, average 3%, 95th percentile 3%, average Alternate SCC values, 2050 Social cost of carbon ($/tCO2), 2050 $1,600 $1,550 $1,430 $1,200 $910 $800 $761 $150 - $500 $558 $400 $418 $198 $0 $534 $123 $64 N-N 1.5%, 95th percentile $315 $202 $225 H-N N-W Damage functions 1.5%, average 3%, 95th percentile $817 $509 $275 H-W 3%, average Marginal cost of maximum feasible abatement scenarios Republican climate policy Democratic climate policy What will you wear to the apocalypse? This is not happening to your house Why buy insurance? • The average U.S. house has a fire every 350 years – 0.3% probability per year of a residential fire – Almost all homeowners have fire insurance • Annual probability of death is below 1% until age 61 – Probability of death is under 0.2% until 40 – Most young parents have life insurance • Why not cancel your insurance? – Spend the premium on something you’ll really enjoy – Your standard of living goes up unless you have a fire (or die) • How likely is catastrophic climate change? – Unlikely, but less unlikely every year as the world warms – Should we buy insurance for the planet? [email protected] http://frankackerman.com Synapse Energy Economics Cambridge, MA