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Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice1,2, Thomas Lumley1,3 , Betz Halloran1,4 1. 2. 3. 4. University of Washington, Department of Biostatistics Seattle Symphony Chorale Seattle Choral Company Statistical and Quantitative Methods for Infectious Diseases and Evaluating Interventions West Nile Virus • King County wants you to be aware! It’s working! • Cases of West Nile in King County 0.39 0.26 Horses Humans Birds 0.13 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Avoiding misclassification “If you find a dead crow, blue jay, raven or pigeon” Before analyzing it; • Is it a bird? • Is it a plain (bird)? • Is it dead? Sample size – a reminder • Power is low for rare events • Low power = lots of awkward questions to answer! • How to increase sample size of dead birds? Sample size – a reminder • A hint! cyanide strychnine • We don’t cover this in Autumn quarter, or Winter…