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TOWARDS PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING
FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
(PEPPER)
EXAMPLES: TOKAI, JAPAN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
2015: EARTHQUAKES ARE A
GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARD
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
2015: IT IS PAST TIME TO
SPEED UP THE LONG-TERM
RECOVERY PROCESS FOR
EARTHQUAKES
(AND TSUNAMIS)
FAULT RUPTURE
DAMAGE/LOSS
EARTHQUAKE
GROUND
SHAKING
DAMAGE/LOSS
TSUNAMI
DAMAGE/ LOSS
TECTONIC
DEFORMATION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
FOUNDATION
FAILURE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SITE
AMPLIFICATION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LIQUEFACTION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LANDSLIDES
DAMAGE/ LOSS
AFTERSHOCKS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF
UTILITIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO
NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL
AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
10 MILLION EARTHQUAKES
• Only about 110 of the 10 million
earthquakes of all sizes that
occur somewhere in the world
each year are large enough and
close enough to a community
to cause a disaster, - - -
DILEMMAS
• - - - which creates a multitude
of local and regional dilemmas
about what to do, both before
and after the quake, to shorten
the recovery process.
THE SOLUTION:
PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR
POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
(PEPPER)
EXAMPLE: TOKAI, JAPAN
WHERE WILL THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER IN JAPAN OCCUR?
• A difficult question, but --• It is the one that was being asked
before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU
earthquake catastrophe, and TOKAI
was the answer then and now.
MAIN IDEA
Each earthquake disaster throughout the
world provides insights on: 1)
Preparedness, 2) Protection/prevention,
3) Early Warning (Tsunami), 4) Emergency
Response, and 5) Recovery and
Reconstruction
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
THE TOKAI, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE
ZONE
PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING
A probabilistic ground shaking hazard
map integrates key aspects of geology,
geophysics, and seismology in a
consistent way to define the Tokai
hazard model, which can be combined
with Exposure and Vulnerability models
to define the Tokai risk model.
ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
HAZARD MODEL
EXPOSURE
MODEL
RISK
VULNERABILITY
MODEL
LOCATION
REGIONAL MAP
TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:
TECTONICS
• The Nankai trough marks the
boundary where the Philippines
tectonic plate is subducting
beneath Japan (which is a part
of the Eurasian plate).
LOCATION OF TOKAI
TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:
TECTONICS
• At present, the land near
Shizuoka is sinking toward the
Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr.
• Japan’s Earthquake Research
Institute is on record that the
Tokai earthquake is eminent.
TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:
TECTONICS
• The zone along Tokai has not
ruptured since 1854.
TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:
TECTONICS
• Scientists believe that the
recurrence interval of largemagnitude earthquakes along
this zone is 100-150 years.
PRE-EARTHQUAKE
MONITORING
• The Government of Japan is currently
deploying strain meters throughout the
Tokai area to monitor the slip with a
goal of providing as much advance
warning as possible before the Tokai
zone earthquake occurs.
PRE- EARTHQUAKE
PLANNING
• The Government of Japan has a preearthquake action plan based on the
concept of “pre-slip.”
• Pre-slip is based on laboratory
experiments that indicate that a rock
undergoes slip for a short, but
predictable time, before failing.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IN THE
TOKAI AREA
• Landslides are likely at 6,449
specific locations
• 58,402 specific structures and their
related infrastructure are
susceptible to strong ground
shaking, damage, power outages,
and quake-related fires
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
PEPPER
Simulating what Southern California is
likely to experience in the inevitable
future major earthquake
Source: US Geological Survey
• Southern California is prone to
moderate-to-large-to greatmagnitude earthquakes, because- - •It is located near the boundary
between two major tectonic plates
marked by the San Andreas fault,
where much, but not all, of the stress
release happens.
The scenario is based on the
Southern California Hazard,
Exposure, Vulnerability and Risk
models developed from
monitoring, research, and postearthquakes studies
(especially before and after the
1994 Northridge earthquake)
SAN ANDREAS
The “Big One” occurred on the San
Andreas fault in 1857, whereas,
many notable moderate-to-largemagnitude earthquakes have
occurred on “blind” thrust faults
(e.g., Northridge in 1994) in the area
• BE READY to recover from an
inevitable earthquake that could
cause about 1800 deaths and
$213 billion in economic
losses.
Identification of the physical, social and
economic consequences of a major
earthquake in Tokai, Japan or Southern
California will enable end users to
identify what they can change now—
—before
the earthquake—to
shorten recovery from the
catastrophic impacts after the
inevitable “big ones” occur,
probably in the near future.
GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
FLOODS
IMPROVE ON PAST
PERFORMANCE
INCREASED TECHNICAL
AND POLITICL CAPACITY
OF COMMUNITY TO COPE
INCREASED OWNERSHIP
AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE
AND EXPERIENCE
SEVERE WIND STORMS
EARTHQUAKES
DROUGHTS
LANDSLIDES
WILDFIRES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
TERRORISM
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
YOUR
GOAL: DISASTER
RESILIENCE
COMMUNITY
FIVE PILLARS OF
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PROTECTION
•PEPAREDNESS
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.
MAIN INSIGHTS FROM
GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES
• BEING PREPARED INCLUDES PREEARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR POSTEARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
(PEPPER)