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Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
OVERVIEW
1.1. Monetary Policy Developments and Monetary Conditions
1
1.2. Macroeconomic Developments and Main Assumptions
4
1.3. Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook
7
1.4. Risks and Monetary Policy
8
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
11
2.1. Global Growth
12
2.2. Commodity Prices
14
2.3. Global Inflation
17
2.4. Financial Conditions and Risk Indicators
18
2.5. Global Monetary Policy Developments
22
INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS
31
3.1. Inflation
31
3.2. Expectations
39
SUPPLY AND DEMAND DEVELOPMENTS
47
4.1. Gross Domestic Product Developments and Domestic Demand
48
4.2. External Demand
51
4.3. Labor Market
55
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
73
5.1. Financial Markets
73
5.2. Financial Intermediation and Loans
80
PUBLIC FINANCE
6.1. Budget Developments
6.2. Developments in the Debt Stock
7.
1
MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTIONS
99
99
102
111
7.1. Recent Monetary Policy Decisions
111
7.2. Current State of the Economy, Short-Term Outlook and Assumptions
112
7.3. Medium-Term Outlook
116
7.4. Risks and Monetary Policy
119
BOXES
Box 2.1. Portfolio Flows to Emerging Economies
26
Box 3.1. Findings on Price Rigidity Based on Micro Data
41
Box 3.2. The Effect of Inflation Surprises on Expectations
44
Box 4.1. Prices of Investment Goods and Investment Spending
58
Box 4.2. Data on Wages and Earnings
60
Box 4.3. What the Economic Clock Says About Current Economic Activity
65
Box 4.4. Fixed Capital Growth Loss during the Recent Crises and Its Impact on the
Potential GDP
69
Box 5.1. Possible Effects of the Amendments to BRSA Regulations
86
Box 5.2. Credit Rating Upgrade to “Investment Grade”
91
Box 5.3. Monetary Analysis at the CBRT
95
Box 6.1. Structural Budget Balance and Fiscal Stance
106