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The Effect Of Internet on Democratization Samantha Anderson Min Woong Choi Griffin Cohen Prof. Vreeland 15 Oct 2013 Research Question Democratization Internet Hypothesis • Internet growth will increase the likelihood Also: of democratization in autocratic regimes -Democracies should both have more Internet – Internet facilitates communications, both users and Internet growth domestically and internationally -In the years prior to democratization, countries • Thus, gives “people” more power should see increasing Internet growth Arab Spring (2011) Debate OpenJ Curve: Networks Closed The Impact of the The A New WayRegimes: to Understand Why Nations • Globalization’s effectsRule on world and politics Internet Rise and on FallAuthoritarian Shanthi Kalathil & Taylor C. Boas By Ian Bremmer Democratization (1995 – 2008, data from Prof. Vreeland): 25 Total Nigeria 1999 Taiwan 1996 Niger 2000 Thailand 2008 Kenya 1998 Burundi 2005 *Sierra Leone 1996 Comoros 2004 Pakistan 2008 Kyrgyzstan 2005 Liberia 2006 *Guinea-Bissau 2000 Nepal 2008 Georgia 2004 Senegal 2000 Maldives 2008 Ecuador 2002 Indonesia 1999 Mauritania 2007 Bhutan 2007 *Sierra Leone 1998 Mexico 2000 *Guinea-Bissau 2004 Peru 2001 Serbia and Montenegro 2000 Case Studies Russia Tunisia China Ukraine North African Countries Methodology New Variables Internet Growth per Year Regime Changes • Merging Data Sets Regime Transition Weighted • WDI -Year and Vreeland Democracy of transition = 3 -1 Year before = 2 Years1995-2008 before = 1 • Data-2from -All others = 0 • 25Number Countries transition from Dictatorship to of Aggregate Transitions per Year Democracy Statistical Tests: Correlation Regression Fixed Regression Graphs (two-way, quadratic, and simple bar graphs) Do File: Merging Datasets Do File: New Variables Internet and New Variables Preliminary Results Preliminary Results Internet Users Effect on Democracy Internet Users Effect on Democracy (Quadratic Fit) 5 Number of Democratizations per year 4 3 2 1 Internet Users Growth For World per Year Internet Growth per Years Before Democratization All Other Years 2 years prior 1 year prior Year of Effect of Internet Growth Rate on Nearing a Democratization Effect of Regime type on Internet Growth Rate Dictatorship Democracy Internet Growth Variable Internet Growth Internet Growth Effect of Regime type on Number of Internet Users Democracy Dictatorship Future Research • Region-specific analysis • Data when Democracies fall and become Dictatorships • Control for other variables besides GDP Implications Effect of Internet on Democratization (If proves robust…) •China •Globalization •Countries looking for Democratization should focus on Internet growth •Dictatorships should try to suppress communications and Internet Comments? Questions?