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Economic Firefight – An Inside View Alan Ahearne Special Adviser to the Minister for Finance Presentation to NUI Galway Dublin Alumni Club 11 May 2010 Outline Are we winning the fight? Is a fight worth winning? Truth or myth? 3 The economy is turning Consensus forecast is for a return to positive growth in the second half of this year. Or sooner! Growth projected to strengthen next year and beyond, led by exports. Net job creation of 20,000 next year, and 45,000 each year thereafter. 4 Improving competitiveness spurring exports Unit labour costs (annual change in 2009, %) 10 Ireland is the only country in the euro area in which unit labour costs are falling - last year there was a 5¼% improvement in unit labour costs vis-àvis the euro area 8 4 2 0 -2 finland slovakia slovenia portugal austria netherlands malta cyprus italy france spain greece germany belgium ireland -4 luxembourg source: EU Commission Autumn 2009 forecasts euro area per cent change 6 5 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 Oct-07 Jul-07 Apr-07 Jan-07 Oct-06 Jul-06 Apr-06 Jan-06 Oct-05 Jul-05 30.0 Apr-05 Jan-05 Oct-04 Jul-04 Apr-04 Jan-04 Oct-03 Jul-03 Apr-03 Jan-03 Oct-02 Jul-02 Apr-02 Jan-02 Oct-01 Jul-01 Apr-01 Jan-01 Business conditions are improving Purchasing Managers’ Indexes 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 manufacturing services construction 25.0 not expanding or contracting 20.0 6 Consumer confidence and spending are improving Consumer confidence Consumer spending* 100 108 90 107 80 106 105 70 104 60 103 50 102 40 101 30 100 20 99 10 98 0 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 *Volume of core (excl cars) retail sales. 2005=100 7 The economy is turning Budgetary targets for public spending and taxation on target through April. Unemployment rate unlikely to rise much further. Small decrease in the live register in April. New homebuilding near to bottoming out. 8 Drag on GDP from new homebuilding easing House completions (including Dept of Finance forecasts) 100000 90000 80000 70000 units 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 9 Household debt is relatively high Household debt (per cent of disposable income) 10 The underlying deficit has been stabilised. Budget balance (% of GDP) 6 4 2 0 % of GDP -2 -4 Stability and Growth Pact "threshold" -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010f 2011f *Underlying 2009 General Government Deficit of 11.8% of GDP excludes bank recapitalisation costs. 2012f 2013f 2014f 11 Percentage of households’ disposable income used to pay interest on debt obligations Household interest payments (per cent of disposable income) 14 12 per cent 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 12 Disposable income and consumption expected to bottom out in 2010 Irish household savings (€ billions) 2007 2008e 2009e 2010f 1. Disposable income 94 100 96 92 2. Consumption 92 94 85 82 3. Savings 2 6 11 10 2.3 6.1 10.9 10.2 4. Savings ratio (%) 13 A bit of bank accounting Fictional Bank Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities Loans Other assets Total assets 62 Capital Equity Subordinated debt Total capital 4 2 Funding Deposits Senior funding Total funding 60 15 6 19 81 Total liabilities 75 81 14 We are in the ultimate phase in the resolution of our financial crisis NAMA has determined the price for the first tranche of loans, after rigorous loan-by-loan analysis. 50% average discount – aggressive valuations. NAMA has forced the banks to acknowledge reality and recognise their losses. Financial Regulator and Central Bank have set prudent capital requirements. 8% core tier 1 capital requirement, of which 7% must be equity. 15 Banks need additional equity capital to meet the new capital standards Bank of Ireland: €2.7 billion. Allied Irish Bank: €7.4 billion. Private capital raising. Significant return to the State from its involvement in the capital raising – includes conversion of preference shares into ordinary equity. Detailed capital plan submitted to Financial Regulator. Can be fully met from the National Pension Reserve Fund. NPRF will hold valuable shares. 16 Bank of Ireland deal: What does the State get? A functioning bank. About 36% share of the bank. Roughly €1.8 billion of preference shares with a coupon of 10.25%. €491 million profit for its warrants. €51 million in fees for conducting this deal. 17 Is the Government bailing out the builders? Borrowers continue to owe every cent. Provisions v. write offs. No more rolling up interest. Protection for homeowners. 18 Is the Government bailing out the banks? Who are the “banks”? Shareholders? Senior management? Bondholders? Depositors? The Government is fixing the banking system. 19 Is the Government bailing out the bondholders? Bulk of bonds in issue by Irish banks are ordinary senior bonds. e.g. certificates of deposits. Senior bonds are: part of banks’ funding, not risk capital. owned by pension funds, insurance companies, credit unions, multinational companies, and other long-term providers of funds. Same investors that buy Government debt. covered by the Bank Guarantee. legally entitled to same treatment as deposits. 20 Should Anglo be liquidated immediately? Fictional Bank Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities Loans Other assets Total assets 62 Capital Equity Subordinated debt Total capital 4 2 Funding Deposits Senior funding Total funding 60 15 6 19 81 Total liabilities 75 81 21 Conclusions Back burning often used to minimise destruction. Large fire, but not one that exceeds suppression capabilities. 22