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SEEA as a framework for assessing policy responses to climate change Prepared for the IAOS conference Sjoerd Schenau and Roel Delahaye Statistics Netherlands Content • Introduction • Linking SEEA with DPSIR model; what elements of SEEA apply to which part of the DPSIR model • Climate change policy questions that can be addressed in the SEEA; mitigation and adaptation • Conclusions Introduction • SEEA – System of Environmental and Economic accounting • Climate change in volume III of SEEA • Focus on relationships between economic activities and climate change • In context of the DPSIR (Driving forcesPressure-State-Impact-Response) model Individual statistics •High diversity •Little coherence •Independent development •Difficult correlation SEEA framework Still room for diversity •Solid foundation •More coherence •Single architecture Introduction • SEEA – System of Environmental and Economic accounting • Climate change in volume III of SEEA2012 • Focus on relationships between economic activities and climate change • In context of the DPSIR (Driving forcesPressure-State-Impact-Response) model Increased production, population, energy demand etc. Greenhouse gas emissions Driving forces Pressure Economic developments Human activities affecting the environment DPSIR model Response State … of society to solve the problem Quality of the environment Climate variables Impact Effects of a changed environment Impact on agriculture, water supply, sea level etc. Stimulate renewable energy production Energy saving Driving forces Pressure Economic developments Human activities affecting the environment Response State … of society to solve the problem Mitigation Adaptation Quality of the environment Impact Effects of a changed environment Construction of dikes and sea walls Climate change policies issues and SEEA 1. To what extent is human induced climate change actually taking place ? Can SEEA be used ? NO ! 2. What actions need to be taken to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gasses (mitigation) ? Can SEEA be used Yes ! 3. What actions need to be taken to deal with the consequences of global warming and minimize the impacts (adaptation)? Can SEEA be used Yes ! Applications and policy uses of SEEA to climate change • Based on examples of the Dutch environmental accounts • Policy questions regarding mitigation and adaptation • Descriptive statistics and modelling Are the production induced GHG emissions decoupling with respect to economic growth ? 160 index 1990 = 100 140 120 100 80 60 40 1990 1995 GDP 2000 Greenhouse gasses 2005 CO2 CH4 2009 N2O How can the change in GHG emissions over time be explained ? 80 Mton CO2 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 1990 Emission intensity 1995 Energy intensity 2000 Economic structure 2005 Economic growth CO2 emissions 2009 What are the economic drivers behind the GHG emissions ? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Total economy Agriculture Food industry Construction Other manufacturing Transport and communication Financial Services Government, health care, other services Export Consumption government Consumption households Investments and stock changes 80% 90% 100% What is the national carbon footprint ? --------------------------------------------------------------------------------2009 1996 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Mton CO 2 -equivalents 86 105 99 103 18 3 4. GHG by Dutch residents 246 232 5. GHG Dutch consumption needs (carbon footprint) = 4-3 228 228 1. GHG embodied in import 2. GHG embodied in export 3. Environmental balance of trade = 2-1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What is the share of renewable energy in the total energy consumption ? 3,5 % 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1990 1995 Wind 2000 Solar Biomass Other 2005 2008 Taxes on energy and transport: to what extent does the ‘polluter pay principle’ apply ? 100% 80% Households Other services Transport Manufacturing and construction Agriculture 60% 40% 20% 0% Total energy and transport tax CO2 emissions How much do mitigating activities contribute to economic growth ? Environmental goods and service industry mln euro % 3000 0,60 2500 0,50 2000 0,40 1500 0,30 1000 0,20 500 0,10 0 0,00 1995 2000 Value added Percentage of GDP 2005 2006* 2007* What is the potential economic impact of a sea level rise ? Employment Total Dutch economy Mining Industry Health care and other services Government Transport and communication Financial and business services Trade, hotel and restaurants Construction Electricity supply Agriculture and fishing 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% How much does a government spend on climate change adaptation measures ? Expenditures on the maintenance of dikes and seawalls mln euro 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Conclusions • The SEEA, together with the SNA and related satellite accounts, has the potential to bring together in one consistent analytical framework all relevant information with regard to the relationships between the economy and climate change. • SEEA as an integrated framework is particularly suitable to asses the policy responses to climate change. It provides all the essential information to monitor, understand and analyse the relation between the economy and climate change essential for developing both mitigation and adaptation strategies.