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Clean Energy Technology, R&D and Innovation Dr. Harlan Watson Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative U.S. Department of State Climate Change and Sustainable Development: An international workshop to strengthen research and understanding Session 5: “Options for Response Measures” Magnolia Hall, Indian Habitat Centre New Delhi, India April 8, 2006 Overview Stabilization of greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations in the atmosphere—the “ultimate objective of the UNFCCC confronts several realities, including: Reality 1—Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Concentrations Is a LongTerm Issue. Reality 2—Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Dominant Energy Source for Decades. Reality 3—Can’t Expect Developing Countries to Reduce Energy Consumption for the Foreseeable Future. Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad Portfolio of Technologies Required. Reality 5—Challenge is Formidable • U.S. domestic and international efforts to develop and deploy cleaner technologies. Reality 1—Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Concentrations is a Long-Term Issue • Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs is a very longterm issue—decades to a century or more time scale. • Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter. Source: Jae Edmonds (Battelle) Reality 2—Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Dominant Energy Source for Decades • Scenarios World Energy Demand Projections World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Projections • Plentiful Fossil Fuels Means Problem Will Not Go Away On Its Own. World Primary Energy Demand 7 000 Oil 6 000 5 000 Mtoe IEA World Energy Outlook 2004 Reference Scenario: Natural gas 4 000 Coal 3 000 • Fossil fuels account for 2 000 almost 90% of the 1 000 ~60% growth in 0 energy 1970 demand between now and 2030. Other renewables Nuclear power Hydro power 1980 1990 2000 Source: Fatih Birol (IEA) 2010 2020 2030 World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 20 000 • Global emissions projected grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s. 16 000 2 Mt of CO2 IEA World Energy Outlook 2004 Reference Scenario: 12 000 8 000 4 000 0 1970 OECD 1980 1990 2000 Transition economies Source: Fatih Birol (IEA) 2010 2020 2030 Developing countries Plentiful Fossil Fuels Means Problem Will Not Go Away On Its Own Carbon Reservoirs Atmosphere 800 GtC (2004) Biomass ~500 GtC N. Gas ~2602GtC Oil ~270 GtC Soils ~1,500 GtC Coal Unconventional Fossil Fuels: 15,000 to 40,000 Unconventional Liquids and Gases GtC Coal 5,000 to 8,000 GtC 14 Sources: Jae Edmonds (Battelle) and Nebojša Nakićenović (IIASA) Reality 3—Can’t Expect Developing Countries to Reduce Energy Consumption for the Foreseeable Future • Overriding priority for developing countries, is poverty reduction => Economic growth => Increase in Energy Consumption => Increase in Emissions. Source: Fatih Birol (IEA) In 2030, if no major new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity. Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad Portfolio of Technologies Required Global Carbon Emissions Assumed Advances In • Fossil Fuels • Energy intensity • Nuclear • Renewables Atmospheric GHG Concentrations Stabilized • • The “Gap” • • • Source: Jae Edmonds (Battelle) “Gap” Technologies More of All of the Above Biological Sequestration Carbon Capture and Disposal Hydrogen and Advanced Transportation Biotechnologies Reality 5—Challenge is Formidable Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton/year of Mitigation • Coal: Carbon capture and storage at 800 1 GW coal power plants. • Nuclear: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power • Geologic Sequestration: 3,500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr (~100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR). • Biofuels: Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels 250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland) • Efficency: 2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. • Wind: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. (Today~50,000 MW). • Solar PV: 2000 GWpeak (700 times current capacity) and 2 million hectares of land. Source: Rob Socolow (Princeton) U.S. Climate Change Policy Components Address climate change within a broader development agenda—one that promotes economic growth, reduces poverty, provides energy security, reduces air pollution, and mitigates greenhouse gas emissions. • Slowing the Growth of Net Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions. National Goal: Reduce GHG Intensity by 18% Over 10-Year Period (2002-2012). 190 No Improvement (183 tons in 2002) • Laying the Groundwork for Current and Future Action: Investments in Science and Technology. Climate Change Science Program (~$2 billion/year) Climate Change Technology Program (~$3 billion/year) Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent Per Million Dollars GDP, 2001 Dollars on dollars GDP, 2001 dollars 180 Current Efforts (14%) 170 National Goal (18% decline to 151 tons in 2012) 160 150 140 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year 2010 2012 2014 • Promoting International Cooperation. Near-Term Domestic Actions • More than 60 Federal mandatory, incentive-based, and voluntary programs designed to help reduce emissions by more than 500 million metric tons of carbon-equivalent from BAU through 2012. Examples of mandatory and incentive-based programs include: • Fuel Economy Standards Energy Efficiency Standards Renewable Energy/CHP Tax Incentives Hybrid/Fuel Cell Vehicle Tax Incentives Numerous U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) voluntary programs to help consumers and corporations reduce their GHG emissions, such as: ENERGY STAR CHP* Partnership Climate Leaders • Clean Air Rules Biological Sequestration Nuclear Plant Relicensing Nuclear Power 2010 Methane Programs SmartWay Transport Partnership Climate VISION U.S. Fiscal Year 2007 budget request of about $5 billion for climate change programs plus energy tax incentives: Supports the near-term objective and future actions through major investments in science and technology. *Combined Heat and Power Domestic Clean Air Policy • CLEAR SKIES: Reduce Power Plant Pollution (Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Mercury) by 70% below 2003 levels by 2018 • Market-Based Cap and Trade System US Fleet of Coal-Fired Power Plants — 1,300 Nationwide Two Phases Provides Regulatory Certainty for Capital Planning Decisions Promotes Technology Innovation and Cost Reduction Promotes Clean Coal and Relieves Pressure On Natural Gas Usage $50+ Billion in Pollution Controls, Efficiency Upgrades $100+ Billion Health Savings High Compliance — Low Bureaucracy Minimal electricity price impact (~ 1,7-3%) CLEAN DIESEL RULES — Reduce Diesel Engine Pollution by 90%+ Performance Standard — Promotes Innovation Fuel Sulfur Dioxide Reduced 99+% in 2007 New Engine Nitrogen Oxide Reduced 90% Large Trucks, Construction and Farm Equipment, Locomotives, Marine Vessels Commercially Feasible Timelines Assures Reliability and Affordability of New Engines Enables Larger U.S. Market in Fuel Efficient Vehicles (up to 30% improved fuel economy) Energy Policy Act of 2005 Tax Incentives Incentives: $14.5 billion Offsets: $3 billion Total: $11.5 billion Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) • ~ $3 Billion/Year • Goals Reduce Emissions from Energy End-Use and Infrastructure Reduce Emissions from Energy Supply Capture and Sequester CO2 Reduce Emissions of Non- CO2 GHGs Improve Capabilities to Measure and Monitor GHG Emissions Bolster Basic Science Contributions to Technology Development. • CCTP Vision & Framework provides: Overall Guidance and Strategic Direction Vision, Mission, Goals and Approaches Groundwork for Portfolio Prioritization “Next Steps” for CCTP Oversight & Management Controls www.climatetechnology.gov Roadmap for CC Technology Development CCTP Goals Goal #1 Energy End-Use & Infrastructure Goal #2 Energy Supply Goal #3 Capture, Storage & Sequestration Goal 4 Other Gases Mid-Term Near-Term • • • • Hybrid & Clean Diesel Vehicles High-Efficiency Appliances High-Performance Buildings High-Efficiency Industrial Processes & Boilers • Modernized Grids • Wind, Hydro, Solar & Geothermal • Biomass, Biodiesel, Clean Fuels • Distributed Electric Generation • IGCC Coal Plants • Stationary H2 Fuel Cells • Enhanced Nuclear Power • • • • • CSLF & Regional Partnerships Oxy-Fuel Combustion Enhanced Oil Recovery Reforestation Soils Conservation • Methane to Markets • Alternatives to High GWP Gases • Bioreactor Landfill Technology Long-Term • • • • • H2 Fuel Cell Vehicles High-Efficiency Aviation Net-Zero Buildings Expanded Solid-State Lighting Transformational Technologies for Energy-Intensive Industries • Advanced Energy Storage & Controls • Net-Zero Communities • Low-Emission Intelligent Transport Systems • Low-Emission Industrial Production • Closed-Cycle Products & Materials • Low-Loss Energy Transmission & Distribution • • • • Large-Scale Wind Power Community-Scale Solar Bio-Fuels, Bio-Refineries Advanced Bio-Refining of Cellulose & Biomass • FutureGen Scale-Up • Gen IV Nuclear Energy • • • • • • Widespread Renewable Energy Bio-Inspired Energy & Fuels Zero-Emission Fossil Energy H2 & Electric Economy Widespread Safe Nuclear Energy Fusion Power Deployment • • • • • • • • • CO2 as Commodity Chemical Large Global CO2 Storage Large-Scale Sequestration Carbon-Based Products & Materials Improved CO2 Capture Safe Geologic Storage Environmental Guidelines Bio-Based & Recycled Products Soils Uptake & Land Use • Methane Emissions Reduction • Precision Agriculture • PFC Substitutes • Low Emissions of Other GHGs • Low-Emission Agriculture • Genetically Designed Forages & Bacteria Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request: CCTP Portfolio CCTP Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request* Portfolio of RD&D and Deployment: $2.987 Million H2 + Fuel Cells Deployment** ($322 M) ($649 M) Clean Fossil ($321 M) Other CCTP RD&D Areas ($25 M) Sequestration ($137 M) Renewable Energy ($395 M) Nuclear Energy ($397 M) Transmission & Distribution ($103 M) Energy Efficiency RD&D ($320 M) *All CCTP Federal Agencies Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request Fusion Energy, ITER ($319 M) ** Deployment is 79% Energy Efficiency International Partnerships • Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF)―22 members: Focused on CO2 capture & storage technologies. • International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE)―17 members: Organizes, coordinates, and leverages hydrogen RD&D programs. • Generation IV International Forum (GIF)―1 members: Devoted to R&D of next generation of nuclear systems. • Methane to Markets Partnership―17 members: Recovery and use of methane from landfills, mines, and oil & gas systems. • ITER―7 members: Project to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. • Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP)―17 countries working to enhance the delivery of clean and secure energy through the use of renewable resources and energy efficiency programs in the developed and developing world. Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate Six Partners in 2003: (Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and the United States) accounted for: • 49.0% of World GDP (Purchasing Power Parities) • • 45.4% of World Population • 46.2% of World Total Primary Energy Consumption • 50.2% of World CO2 Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Consumption and Flaring • 64.4% of World Coal Production • 63.6% of World Coal Consumption • 45.6% of World Petroleum Consumption • 49.3% of World Total Net Electricity Generation • 49.4% of World Total Net Electricity Consumption Sources: International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions for Fuel Combustion: 1971-2003. 2005 Edition; and Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003 Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate Focus • Voluntary practical measures taken by these six countries in the AsiaPacific region to create new investment opportunities, build local capacity, and remove barriers to the introduction of clean, more efficient technologies. • Help each country meet nationally-designed strategies for improving energy security, reducing pollution, and addressing the long-term challenge of climate change. • Promote the development and deployment of existing and emerging cleaner, more efficient technologies and practices that will achieve practical results in areas such as: Energy Efficiency Clean Coal Natural Gas Bioenergy Methane Capture/Use Civilian Nuclear Power Geothermal Agriculture/Forestry Rural/Village Energy Systems Advanced Transportation Hydro/Wind/Solar Power Building/Home Construction/Operation • Seek opportunities to engage the private sector. Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate Organization Policy and Implementation Committee (USA, Chair) Administrative Support Group (USA) Cleaner Fossil Energy Task Force Australia (Chair) China (Co-Chair) Renewable Energy and Distributed Generation Task Force Korea (Chair) Australia (Co-Chair) Power Generation And Transmission Steel Task Force Aluminium Task Force USA (Chair) China (Co-Chair) Japan (Chair) India Co-Chair) Australia (Chair) USA (Co-Chair) Cement Task Force Japan (Chair) Coal Mining Task Force Buildings And Appliances Task Force USA (Chair) India (Co-Chair) Korea (Chair) USA (Co-Chair) Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate Next Steps • Policy and Implementation Committee and Task Forces will meet April 18-21 in Berkeley, California. • Task Forces to begin development of Action Plans — “blueprints” for action — for the private sector and governments. Strategic framework for identifying opportunities (technologies and practices) and implementing priority actions to advance clean development and climate goals. Identification of specific opportunities (technologies and practices) for cooperation and barriers to these opportunities. Establishment of ambitious and realistic results-oriented goals for both immediate and medium-term specific actions, with measurement systems to gauge progress toward achieving the goals. • We are seeking actions that are both broad and deep, including both technology development and deployment. • Action Plans to be completed by mid-2006, with implementation to begin at start of Fiscal Year 2007 (October 1, 2006). Summary Stabilization of greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations in the atmosphere—the “ultimate objective of the UNFCCC confronts several realities, including: Reality 1—Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Concentrations Is a Long-Term Issue. Reality 2—Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Dominant Energy Source for Decades. Reality 3—Can’t Expect Developing Countries to Reduce Energy Consumption for the Foreseeable Future. Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad Portfolio of Technologies Required. Reality 5—Challenge is Formidable. • U.S. addresses climate change within a broader development agenda—one that promotes economic growth, reduces poverty, provides energy security, reduces air pollution, and mitigates greenhouse gas emissions. Seeks to accelerate near-term deployment of cleaner technologies through a mix of mandatory, incentive-based, and voluntary programs, and working through international partnerships, with emphasis on public-private partnerships. Seeks to develop “breakthrough” cleaner technologies through governmentfunded RD&D programs domestically, and working through international partnerships, again emphasizing public-private partnerships where feasible. Room for Optimism: U.S. Experience with Air Pollution • Air Pollution Down 54% Since 1970: Down 10% in 2001-2004 Economy Up 187% Vehicle Miles Up 171% Energy Use Up 47% Population Up 40%