Download Convergent or Divergent Superintelligence

Convergent or Divergent
Superintelligence
We need a “smart systems
theory”
• What is the Evolution and Ecology of
Intelligence?
– Under what circumstances do we see complex
organisations of intelligence of different kinds,
and under what circumstances do we see
monocultures?
– Economy and sociology as the ecology of
intelligence?
Hard or soft takeoff?
• Runaway self improvement leading to
single “winners” - a “spike”
• More gradual self improvement leading to a
broad front - a “swell”
• The scenario assumed will determine policy
to a large extent
• Do we have any evidence for either
scenario?
General vs. specific intelligence
• How powerful and easy to design?
• Likely a strong determinant of hard vs. soft
takeoff
Reasons to think general
intelligence is hard
• No free lunch theorems
• The Bias-Variance dilemma
– Specific bias vs. slow learning rate
• No strong evolutionary trend towards GI
– either very expensive or hard to achieve
Is intelligence increase easy or
hard?
• Difficulty of improving intelligence might
remain constant, increase or decrease
compared to current level
• Different mental architectures have different
affordances and might be able to develop
not just at different rates in different
domains, but might be able/unable to solve
certain problems.
One kind of intelligence or many
• Evolution shows that the problem of
survival can be solved in a large number of
radically different ways
• Intelligence models
– Top-down AI with recursive search
– Subsumption architectures of linked behaviours
– Calculate P and reformulate problems in terms
of Turing questions
– Collective intelligence
Intelligence amplification
• IA does not need to understand the human
brain except for extreme enhancement. It
can be an user interface issue
• Gradual acclimatisation
• Effective intelligence might be more
relevant than “real” intelligence
A scenario
• Economics drives development of specific
intelligent systems
• General intelligence as a result of specific
intelligence
• Intelligence fairly
hard but useful
• Plurality of intelligent systems
• Soft take-off
• Intelligence amplification
– Exoselves
• When GI appears, it will be integrated into
the existing systems rather than become
something independent