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Outline of the balanced migration concept April 2009 1 The UK’s population is 61 million today. The Government forecasts it will hit 70 million in 2028. 70 per cent of this growth will be due to immigration. 2 This growth assumes net migration of 190,000 a year. 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 2006 High migration (250k p.a.) Pricipal projection (190k p.a.) Balanced Migration (estimates) Natural change - no migration 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Source: Natural Change, High migration and Principal Projection from GAD (2006-based). Balanced migration projection derived from GAD principal and low migration projections 3 Migration is the single largest reason for additional household formation nationally… 19% 38% Migration More adults More pensioners More single households 25% Source : Estimated from GAD 2006-based population projections and DCLG New Projections of households for England and the Regions to 2026. 4 Immigrants on work permits, not asylum seekers, are now the main source 180000 160000 140000 120000 Work Permits 100000 Asylum Spouses 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 90 93 96 99 '02 '05 '08 Immigrants by category Sources: Work Permits: Migration Advisory Committee, skilled, shortages, sensible : Table 2.3 Work Permits plus First Permissions plus an estimate of 50% for dependants. Asylum: Hansard 12 November 2008, Column 1214WA Spouses: Control of Immigration: Statistical Summary 1997 - 2007; Table 2.6 (EEA Spouses excluded) 5 Such large-scale immigration is a new phenomenon 250 200 150 100 50 0 04 00 96 92 88 84 80 76 72 68 -100 64 -50 Net migration into England 1964-2006 ‘000’s Source: ONS – Parliamentary written answer WA91 -17.01.2005 and ONS International Migration Statistics November 2007 6 … is a matter of public concern… 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 74 78 80 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 Source: MORI Political Monitor: What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today (spontaneous)? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today (spontaneous)? Percentage saying Race relations/immigrants/immigration. (Figures mainly at April except for 74,77, 78 and 82 and Mar 05) 7 …and the recession will have only a temporary effect… 8.0% 300 250 6.0% 200 4.0% 150 100 2.0% 50 06 04 02 00 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 0 72 70 0.0% -50 -2.0% -100 -4.0% -150 GDP growth Net migration 8 Balanced migration - in a nutshell • Balanced migration would seek to bring the numbers of immigrants into line with the number of emigrants. • The main change would be to control the number of non-EU citizens who are given the right to settle permanently in the UK. 9 What would NOT change • Free movement of people in the European Union • The acceptance of genuine asylum seekers • The admission of foreign students • Genuine marriages • The current Points Based system 10 An outline of the numbers Spouses and fiancé(e)s 50,000 (Currently 62,000) Other dependants 10,000 Settlement quota for those who came with a work permit (that is non-EU citizens) 20,000 Net migration from EU 15 (the recent average is 30,000) 30,000 Net migration from new EU members 30,000 ---------140,000 Net British emigration (latest year 2007) 96,000 ---------- Total net migration (last year 237,000) 45,000 11 Impact of Balanced Migration • Economy – No change to current arrangements for EU. Nor for non-EU workers who wish to work, not settle here – Employers will continue to be able to hire non-EU foreigners to work for them for up to 4 years, so long as the employee holds a work permit • Housing – New household formation would be reduced by 40 per cent • Population – Stabilise the population of the UK at about 65 million by mid century, otherwise it would approach 80 million in mid-century, according to the Government’s central forecast 12 Benefits • Balances the need for a competitive economy and the costs of a rapidly growing population • Provides, as the House of Commons Economics Committee recommended, a "reasoned target range for net immigration" to which immigration policies could be adjusted • Reduces pressure on the environment, schools, transport and the NHS • Encourages British industry and commerce to train British workers • Improves the prospects for integrating newcomers to our society • Reduces the drain of talented people from third world countries who need their skills more than we do. 13