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Dayton
Metropolitan
Economy in Context
Richard Stock, PhD.
Business Research Group
University of Dayton
State of the Dayton Metro Area
(in December Each Year, 2000-2014)
• Dayton lost
32,400 jobs in the
two year period
from December,
2007 to
December, 2009.
• It has recovered
12,900 of those
jobs in the last
five years
Employment (in 000s)
460
443.1
440
420
400
404.7
380
360
340
320
372.3
385.2
State of the Dayton Metro Area: Last 4 Years
(in December Each Year, 2009-2014)
• Growth was
steady in the
December 2009
to December
2012 period.
• Stagnation in
2013 and early
2014 has been
reversed in last
few months
Employment (in 000s)
390
385.2
385
380.2
380.8
380
376
375
370
365
372.3
376.4
Total Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros
compared to Ohio and the United States, Dec. 2000-2014
Manufacturing Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati
Metros compared to Ohio and the U.S., Dec. 2000-2014
Wholesale Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros
compared to Ohio and the U.S., Dec. 2000-2014
Retail Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to
Ohio and the U.S., Dec. 2000-2014
Transportation and Utilities Employment Index: Dayton and
Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States,
December 2000-2014
Information Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros
compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014
Financial Activities Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati
Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 20002014
Prof. & Bus. Serv. Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati
Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 20002014
Education & Health Services Employment Index: Dayton and
Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States,
December 2000-2014
Health Services & Social Assistance Employment Index: Dayton and
Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States,
December 2000-2014
Leisure & Hospitality Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati
Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 20002014
Government Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros
compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014
Federal Govt. Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros
compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014
Local Govt. Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros
compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014
The Income Piece
Average Weekly Earnings in Dayton and Cincinnati relative to
Ohio and U.S., December 2007-2014 (2014 Constant Dollars)
Relationship to National Economy
Cyclical factors
• How closely linked is the Dayton Economy to the National
Economy?
• From January, 2004 to December, 2014, 92% of variation in
monthly Dayton Metro Area unemployment rate can be
explained by variation in the U.S unemployment rate
United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly
Unemployment Rates, January 2004-December 2014
United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly
Unemployment Rates, September 2007-December 2014
Number of Unemployed in Dayton Metropolitan Areas, 1990December 2014
From the height of unemployment, 33,949 fewer people
unemployed but 20,129 fewer in work force than in Jan 2010 and
only 13,820 more jobs
Forecasting the Next 3 years
• Note that the Dayton Metropolitan Areas has
mirrored the Country as a whole closely in the last
few years.
• What are the implications of the National Economic
Forecast?
• Federal Government and Local Employment Declines
Have Already Taken a Toll. Are we done?
Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal
Reserve Bank (1rd Quarter Estimates)
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Real GDP (%)
Quarterly data:
2015:Q1
2015:Q2
2015:Q3
2015:Q4
2016:Q1
CPI Inflation Rate (%)
Headline
Core
2.7
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.2
-1.4
1.6
1.9
2.0
2.1
1.3
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
Annual average data:
2015
3.2
2016
2.9
2017
2.7
2018
2.7
5.4
5.1
5.0
4.9
1.1
2.1
2.3
1.7
1.9
2.1
Implications of National Forecast for the Dayton
Metropolitan Economy
United States
Dayton Metro
Unemployment Unemployment Number of
Rate
Rate
Unemployed
Real GDP (%)
Quarterly data:
2015:Q1
2015:Q2
2015:Q3
2015:Q4
2016:Q1
2.7
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.2
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
17,700
17,700
17,700
17,100
Annual average data:
2015
3.2
2016
2.9
2017
2.7
2018
2.7
5.4
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.2
17,600
16,500
16,500
15,900
17,100
Defense Budget Constraints
• Number of Jobs Linked to Wright Patterson Air Force Base
Activities ~ 25,000 to 30,000
• Cuts are likely to be program specific for particular big ticket
items, but there has already been an impact locally at Federal
Government and Professional and Technical Service
employment level.
• A Republican Congress is NO Guarantee of a loosening in
Defense Budget constraints.
• Assuming a 10% drop in WPAFB related employment over a 3
to 4 year period, that implies 2500 to 3000 fewer jobs or an
annual impact of about a 1000 jobs.
• It continues to represents a head wind on local job growth
The Good News
• Fuyao Glass +1000, Early 2015
• Prologis P&G Distribution Center, +800 Early
2015
• Emerson Climate Technologies Innovation
Center +50 End of 2015
Summary
• The local economy’s rebound stalled out over 2013 and early
2014 due to declines in defense related professional and
technical services employment BUT NOW
• Encouraging trends in Manufacturing, Transportation/Utilities,
Professional & Business Services, Health Care and Gov’t
Employment
• The unemployment rate remains below National Rates
because of continued decline in the Civilian Labor Force
• Defense spending cuts will continue to create problems for
WPAFB associated work.
• Job Growth may accelerate due to maturing economic
development projects