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T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU A SUMMARY NOTE ON REVISED GDP ESTIMATES COVERING 1998-2007 TURKEY Ulusal Hesaplar ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Daire Başkanlığı Milli Gelir Hesapları Grubu 5/23/2017 1 T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU I. INTRODUCTION – A more relevant conceptual framework that reflects contemporary requirements for measuring Turkey’s economic and financial conditions. – Ensures comparability of Turkey’s statistics with other countries. – Enables Turkey to meet data requirements of international organizations. Ulusal Hesaplar ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Daire Başkanlığı Milli Gelir Hesapları Grubu 5/23/2017 2 T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU II.TURKEY’S NATIONAL ACCOUNTS HISTORICAL REVISION AND FUTURE PLAN – Comprehensive revisions of Turkish National Accounts System • • • • Base Year Base Year Base Year Base Year 1948 1968 1987 1998 ( Published in 1950 ) ( Published in 1972 ) ( Published in 1993 ) ( Published in 2008 ) Ulusal Hesaplar ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Daire Başkanlığı Milli Gelir Hesapları Grubu 5/23/2017 3 T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU – A major undertaking of several years of intense efforts that improved measure of economic activities, understandability of accounts and harmonization with international standards – Steps to inform users of major changes: • Strategic Plan 2007-2011 • Official Statistical Program 2007-2011 • Presentation performed by Turkstat during screening process, which is part of EU accession process. • Meetings with the press • Discussion with major users, Ulusal Hesaplar ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Daire Başkanlığı Milli Gelir Hesapları Grubu 5/23/2017 4 T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU III. OVERVIEW OF MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS TO TURKEY’S NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 1998-2007 – The international guidelines for compiling national accounts and GDP. • European System of Accounts 1995 replaced the 1968 SNA – Current situation in Turkey vis-à-vis the guidelines • Turkstat was compiling GDP on the basis on the 1968 SNA • Turkstat has a two-phase program for implementing the ESA 95 – First, implementation in March of 2008 – Second phase is elaborated in Turkstat’s Strategic Plan 20072011 – Historical revisions come from three types of improvements • Definitions, classifications, and other methodological improvements • Improvements to source data • Improvements to statistical techniques Ulusal Hesaplar ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Daire Başkanlığı Milli Gelir Hesapları Grubu 5/23/2017 5 T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU IV. MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS TO TURKEY’S NATIONAL ACCOUNTS – The 2002 Census of Industry and Business Establishments • Better coverage of production of goods and services, particularly for manufacturing industries, updated business register leading to improved results from future sample surveys. – The Labor Force Survey (LFS) • Improved LFS sample size increases accuracy, content is expanded. • Results in improvements to the adjustments for the Non-Observed Economy (better exhaustiveness) – The 2000 Building Census and the Number of Electricity Subscribers. • Improved data on the number of dwellings which is used in the estimates of paid and imputed rents by type of dwelling and heating system. – The 2001 Farm Census • Updates and improves technical coefficients utilized for estimation of the sector’s value added Ulusal Hesaplar ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Daire Başkanlığı Milli Gelir Hesapları Grubu 5/23/2017 6 T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU – Improvements to the commodity flow system • Improves the identification of goods used in intermediate consumption, investment, and household consumption • Improves the indirect estimates of selected components of final demand (GDP by expenditure) and selected adjustments to production (e.g., construction). – Improved Supply and Use tables for 2002, basis for benchmark year • The 2002 Supply-Use and Input-Output Tables is the first table compiled by the concepts, definitions and classifications of the 1995 European System of Accounts (ESA’95). – Financial Services measured according to ESA 95 • Measurement of the “Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured” (FISIM) according to ESA 95 • A portion of FISIM is allocated to final consumption (final demand), which would increase GDP by the portion of FISIM that is used in final demand • A portion of FISIM is allocated to intermediate consumption in GDP by production approach. • Central Bank output is measured as sum of costs. Ulusal Hesaplar ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Daire Başkanlığı Milli Gelir Hesapları Grubu 5/23/2017 7 T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU – Introduction of a revised base year (1998) • Improves the accuracy of constant price GDP – Adoption of chain-linking method in constant price estimation • Gives more accurate aggregate volume growth rate • Adoption of Unit value indices at constant price estimation of exports/imports of goods. – Measurement at basic prices (GDP by Production Approach) • The VAT (and other taxes and subsidies on products) are now shown as a separate component of GDP – No net impact on GDP, but better measurement of value added Ulusal Hesaplar ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Daire Başkanlığı Milli Gelir Hesapları Grubu 5/23/2017 8 T.C. BAŞBAKANLIK TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU – Classification systems based on ESA 95 and other international standards • New classification of industries (NACE Rev. 1) and private household consumption (COICOP) will facilitate international comparison • Reclassification of some components of GDP by industries (such as government production, which is now allocated to public administration, health, and education) – Free Trade Zones is included in economic territory of country – Government Final Consumption is split up two categories. » Individual Final Consumption Expenditure of Government » Collective Final Consumption Expenditure of Government – Final Consumption Expenditure of Households is divided into four groups • Final consumption expenditure of resident and non-resident households on the economic territory • Final consumption expenditure of resident households in abroad. • Final consumption expenditure of non-resident households on the economic territory. • Final consumption expenditure of resident households. 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