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The economics of disequilbria: exchange rates and public debts Presentation by Prof. Paolo Savona University of Zhejiang, Hangzhou, Oct. 28, 2010 2017/5/23 1 What is wrong with men is that they always want to teach others what to do Meng Tzu, 3rd century B.C. The great advance of modern logical thought consists in having ascertained that the Truth does not exist and that we can only argue about it Karl Popper, 20th century A.D. 2017/5/23 2 The reference model Economists have always studied equilibrium models of supply and demand (Marshall), up to the “general” equilibrium (Walras/Pareto) Keynes himself started out from the “underemployment equilibrium” for his theory Since the Second World War a large body of literature has dealt with disequilibrium but little headway has been made Globalization requires us to study disequilibria more closely if we want to make rational, coordinated decisions 2017/5/23 3 Geopolitical Economy Geopolitical Economy studies the effects of these imbalances It investigates national economic policy choices from the point of view of their direct global impact and their feedback effects on the country that adopted them The world is a closed economy in which institutional, legal and market obstacles give rise to a series of disequilibria Among these, two are especially important for the proper working of the mechanism of development: balance-ofpayments and national and local government budget imbalances 2017/5/23 4 External imbalances Country • • • • • • • • • Balance of trade Current account US$ bn US$ bn % GDP United States -605 -431 -3.3 Japan 87 181 3.3 China 183 289 4.9 United Kingdom -141 - 34 -1.7 Euro area 13 - 68 -0.5 (Germany) 208 178 5.2 (Spain) - 74 - 75 -4.6 (Italy) - 22 - 73 -3.0 Brazil 17 - 46 -2.8 Saudi Arabia 105 23 12.4 South Africa - 1 -11 -5.0 Australia - 2 -49 -2.6 Source: The Economist, October 16th, 2010 2017/5/23 5 Intra-European imbalances A situation similar to that between the United States on the one hand and China-Japan on the other has been created in the euro area, with Germany strongly in surplus and Spain-Ireland-Italy and France in deficit Exchange rate adjustment is impossible since the currency is the same, and the preferred course is to play the card of deflation of the economies in external deficit The problem is being ignored in the official venues in Brussels, although the European Central Bank is monitoring it The tendency is to blame government budgets, not foreign trade 2017/5/23 6 Public finance imbalances Country • • • • • • • • • %deficit/GDP %Public debt/GDP latest 2009 2014 United States 9.0 88.8 112.0 Japan 7.6 217.4 239.2 China 2.2 20.9 21.3 United Kingdom 10.1 68.6 99.7 Euro area 6.4 84.1 n.d. (Germany) 3.7 79.8 91.4 (Spain) 9.6 54.7 81.2 (Italy) 5.0 117.3 132.2 Brazil 2.1 70.1 62.2 Saudi Arabia 2.6 14.6 9.4 South Africa 7.3 29.0 29.5 Australia 2.4 13.7 25.9 Sources: The Economist, October 16th, 2010, for deficit/GDP; McKinsey ,2010, for debt/GDP 2017/5/23 7 What is being done about the public finance imbalances The United States and the United Kingdom are following aggressive Keynesian policies; the euro area and the rest of the world, moderate policies; Japan and South Africa are faced with special problems All the countries have an excessive public debt both according to the European criterion of 60% and by the standard of 70% that economists indicate as the “point of no return”, the debt level beyond which there is no turning back with ordinary policies of fiscal tightening Nevertheless, the G20, under the impulse of the European Union prompted by Germany, has agreed to recommend a deflationary fiscal policy as a necessity 2017/5/23 8 The twin deficits The gap between saving (S) and investment (I) is equal to the gap between government spending (G) and tax revenues (T) plus exports (Ex) minus imports (Im). As a formula S – I = (G – T) + (Ex – Im) This means that for a country to invest more than it saves, it must run a budget and/or an external deficit The USA, UK, Spain, Italy, Brasil, and Australia have external deficits, China, Germany and Saudi Arabia external surpluses Except China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Australia, the other countries have a public deficit pushing their indebtness beyond the “point of no return” 2017/5/23 9 The source of the problem The United States contends that the source of the external deficit is the overvalued yuan exchange rate, while domestic demand is out of balance because of the budget deficit The opposite position is taken inside the European Union: it is not an exchange rate problem China rejects the US thesis and pushes (correctly) domestic demand in order to reabsorb the external surplus When exchange rates or domestic demand are out of balance, a “balanced” adjustment path must be traced The principle of equally shared responsibility for adjusting imbalances must be restored, whereas today only the countries in deficit stand accused (except USA!) 2017/5/23 10 Geopolitical Economy choices to be made Globalization makes national economic systems interdependent By now, virtually no problem can be solved at national level Coordination and cooperation are the bases of civil and peaceful coexistence If we want the global market to work, we must accept the “one market, one money” principle on which the European Union has founded its Treaty China has already come out in favor of SDRs, but almost no heed has been paid to its position 2017/5/23 11 Chinese monetary policy: my own assessment The stability of the $/yuan exchange rate is an anchor of stability for the global market. It should be pursued, not to perpetuate the imbalances, but rather in order to convince the United States to take SDRs as the international monetary standard, thereby introducing the principle of the same exchange rate regime for all The European Union must work alongside China to reach this goal, but it is not doing so There is a problem of public debt that has to be faced simultaneously with the alignment of exchange rates and control of domestic demand 2017/5/23 12 The problem of public debts The debt overhang in all the main countries, except few countries (included China), can’t be solved through budget surpluses Extraordinary measures are needed to guarantee the holders of government bonds, and to permit the return to orthodox monetary and fiscal policies I propose placing portions of the debt with the IMF, denominating them in SDRs, indexing them to inflation (i.e. zero real returns) and lengthening their maturity This solution is not unlike that adopted by private firms in financial difficulty 2017/5/23 13 Conclusion All countries have an interest in eliminating the imbalances to protect growth, unless governments have “mental reservations” in favor of adjustment through inflation or default on their public debt This can be done only by strengthening international policy coordination and cooperation, starting out from the decisions of the G20, giving the international monetary system a standard that is no longer a national currency, and introducing the principles of symmetrical responsibilities for surpluses and deficits and balancing interventions on exchange rates with those on countries’ domestic demand 2017/5/23 14 The economics of disequilibria: exchange rates and public debts © Paolo Savona 2017/5/23 15