Download Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
Name: ________________________________
You are the Manager of the Minnesota Twins. You
need to write your lineup for the next week, so you
want to make sure players who are playing well
appear higher in the batting order.
Your Challenge: How should you order your hitters to give
your team the best chance to win?
LEVEL 1
This data table shows statistics on some of the top Twins players from the 2014 season.
Player
At Bats
Hits
Home Runs
Brian Dozier
598
145
23
Trevor Plouffe
520
134
14
Eduardo Escobar
433
119
6
Kurt Suzuki
452
130
3
Joe Mauer
455
126
4
One of the most commonly used statistics in baseball is a player’s batting average. A batting
average is the probability a player will get a hit for each turn at bat.
1.
a.
b.
c.
Calculate each player’s batting average.
Calculate the probability that each player hits a home run if they get a hit.
Calculate the probability that each player hits a home run if they get an at bat.
Player
Brian Dozier
Probability of a Hit
(Batting Average)
Probability of a
Home Run
(if they get a hit)
Probability of a
Home Run
(if they get an at bat)
0.242
Trevor Plouffe
Eduardo Escobar
Kurt Suzuki
Joe Mauer
2.
Do you notice any patterns in the data? Explain your thinking.
Updated February 2015 1 © NextLesson 2015 Minnesota Twins
You want to make predictions for the next week before deciding your batting order.
3.
You want to decide what your numbers may look like if your players each get 30 at bats in
the next week. Use the probabilities to predict the approximate relative frequency of hits
and home runs for each player. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.
Player
At Bats
Brian Dozier
30
Trevor Plouffe
30
Eduardo Escobar
30
Kurt Suzuki
30
Joe Mauer
30
Hits
Home Runs
4.
Based on your predictions, would Brian Dozier or Trevor Plouffe have more hits? By how
many more?
5.
On average, a major league player will receive between 24-32 at bats per week.
a.
b.
c.
6.
About how many total at bats will Kurt Suzuki need to reach 10 hits?
Hint: Use his batting average.
About how many total at bats will Joe Mauer need to reach 10 hits?
Do you think reaching 10 hits is achievable within a week?
In your opinion, is it likely that any player will hit more than 2 home runs this week? Why or
why not?
Most managers prefer players with the highest probability of hitting home runs to bat 3rd or 4th in
the batting order. They also prefer players with the highest probability to get a hit to bat 1st or 2nd
in the order.
7.
Based on your research, select a batting order and justify why you believe it is the best
order.
Updated February 2015 2 © NextLesson 2015 Minnesota Twins
LEVEL 2
After four games, you decide to look at the box scores to see if your predictions are working out.
Game 1
Player
At
Bats
Hits
Brian Dozier
6
Trevor Plouffe
Game 2
HRs
At
Bats
Hits
0
0
3
5
3
0
Eduardo Escobar
3
0
Kurt Suzuki
6
Joe Mauer
4
8.
Game 3
HRs
At
Bats
Hits
0
0
5
4
2
0
0
1
0
3
0
2
0
0
4
Game 4
HRs
At
Bats
Hits
HRs
3
0
4
1
1
4
1
0
3
1
0
0
2
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
4
1
0
1
0
4
1
0
5
2
0
Based on the observed frequencies:
a.
Add up the total at bats, hits, and home runs per player for the four games.
b.
Use the statistics to calculate the same probabilities as Level 1.
Player
At
Bats
Hits
Home
Runs
Probability of
a Hit
Probability of a
Home Run
Probability of a
Home Run
(Batting Average)
(if they get a hit)
(if they get an at bat)
Brian Dozier
Trevor Plouffe
Eduardo Escobar
Kurt Suzuki
Joe Mauer
9.
Are the probabilities of the outcomes the same as or similar to your predicted probabilities
from Level 1? Why do you think this is?
10.
Based on your data, which players are performing better than you expected? Which
players are performing below expectation? Cite specific evidence to explain your
reasoning.
11.
Do you think you should make a change to your batting order? Justify your decision with
evidence.
Updated February 2015 3 © NextLesson 2015 Minnesota Twins
Challenge
All hits are not created equal. While some players can hit a lot of home runs, others may thrive at
getting doubles or triples. Total bases is a statistic that managers use to estimate how well a
player is hitting. When calculating the statistic, singles count as 1 base, doubles count as 2, triples
count as 3 and homeruns count as 4.
1.
2.
In the table, determine the number of total bases each player earned.
Player
At Bats
Singles
Doubles
Triples
Home
Runs
Brian Dozier
598
88
33
1
23
Trevor Plouffe
520
78
40
2
14
Eduardo Escobar
433
76
35
2
6
Kurt Suzuki
452
93
34
0
3
Joe Mauer
455
93
27
2
4
Total
Bases
Use the At Bat and Total Base data to calculate the expected number of bases a player
would earn per each at bat, rounding to the nearest thousandth.
Expected Number of
Bases Earned per At Bat
Player
Brian Dozier
Trevor Plouffe
Eduardo Escobar
Kurt Suzuki
Joe Mauer
3.
Based on the data throughout the assignment, rank your batters for the year from most to
least effective. Justify you selection with evidence.
Updated February 2015 4 © NextLesson 2015 Minnesota Twins
Finale You could give students one of the following finale options or have them choose themselves.
1. Research the other members of the Minnesota Twins to develop a batting order with all of the
hitters. Use this order and statistics from each player to create a promotional flyer for this
weekend’s game.
2. Plan a strategy of stealing more bases in an attempt to score more runs. Research your
players’ stolen base data to decide which players are more likely to succeed. Write an email to
your team’s general manager describing the new strategy and whether or not you feel the team
needs to add more speed.
3. Create a presentation for a pending free agent about your team, telling them about the
statistics for your team and persuade them to sign with you.
Updated February 2015 5 © NextLesson 2015 Minnesota Twins
Glossary
At bats – a player’s turn at batting.
Manager – the coach of a baseball team
who makes in-game strategy and player
Batting average – this is a statistic that decisions (see also Job Background section).
measures the performance of a baseball
hitter, calculated by the number of runs Pending free agent – a player who is
divided by the number of at bats.
looking for a contract with a new team.
Batting order – in baseball, there are nine Pitch – a ball thrown to a batter.
players that are put in an order to determine
who hits when.
Plate - a flat, often five-sided piece of hard
rubber or other material that serves to
Box scores – an organized list of statistics define the area over which the pitcher must
that is created after each baseball game.
pitch the ball for a strike and that a base
runner must safely reach on his way from
General manager – the supervisor of the third base to score a run.
team’s manager who makes decisions on
which players the team gets.
Run – a point being scored by making it
around the bases and back to the plate after
Hits – a hit is given to a batter who batting.
successfully reaches first base after hitting
the ball.
Strike - a pitch that is counted against the
batter, in particular one that the batter
Home run - a fair hit that allows the batter to swings at and misses, or that passes through
make a complete circuit of the bases without the strike zone without the batter swinging,
stopping and score a run.
or that the batter hits foul.
Lineup – a synonym for batting order.
Updated February 2015 Total bases – a calculation based on the
number of bases a player earns on each hit.
© NextLesson 2015 Minnesota Twins
Job Background
A Sports Team Manager in this context falls within the category of “Coaches” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Quick Facts: Coaches and Scouts 2012 Median Pay
$28,360 per year Entry-­‐Level Education
Bachelor’s degree Work Experience in a Related Occupation
On-­‐the-­‐job Training
None None Number of Jobs, 2012
243,900 Job Outlook, 2012-­‐22
15% (Faster than average) Employment Change, 2012-­‐22
36,200 What Coaches and Scouts Do Coaches teach amateur or professional athletes the skills they need to succeed at their sport. Scouts look for new players and evaluate their skills and likelihood for success at the college, amateur, or professional level. Many coaches are also involved in scouting. Work Environment Coaches and scouts often work irregular hours, including evenings, weekends, and holidays. Full-­‐time coaches usually work more than 40 hours a week for several months during the sports season. Coaches travel frequently to sporting events. Scouts may be required to travel more extensively when searching for talented athletes. How to Become a Coach or Scout Coaches and scouts typically need a bachelor’s degree. They must also have extensive knowledge of the game. Coaches typically gain this knowledge through their own experiences playing the sport at some level. However, although previous playing experience may be beneficial, it is typically not required for most scouting jobs. Pay The median annual wage for coaches and scouts was $28,360 in May 2012. Job Outlook Employment of coaches and scouts is projected to grow 15 percent from 2012 to 2022, faster than the average for all occupations. Increasing participation in high school and college sports will boost demand for coaches and scouts. Updated February 2015 © NextLesson 2015