Download USGS National Hydrologic Model 3

American Water Resources Association
2012 ANNUAL WATER RESOURCES CONFERENCE
Nov. 12-15, 2012
Jacksonville, FL
Tuesday, Nov. 13
1:30 PM – 3:00 PM
SESSION 21: (Special Session) USGS National Hydrologic Model 3
Approach for Assessment of Water Availability in Major River Basins in Alabama - Ana Maria Garcia, U.S.
Geological Survey, Raleigh, NC (co-authors: R. Knight, J. LaFontaine)
Climatic and water-use changes can present major challenges when water managers try to maintain permitted
withdrawals while also providing for in-stream uses such as habitat. The National Hydrologic Model (NHM)
infrastructures, being developed by USGS, was selected as the framework for development of regional-scale
hydrologic models to aid water managers in Alabama in their assessment of Alabama surface water availability.
The hydrologic model PRMS (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System) which is part of the NHM, was configured to
provide a detailed water budget analysis, a critical starting point for developing realistic targets for within-basin
and basin-to-basin water supply development. The major drainage areas represented by the models are the
Mobile River basin; including the Tombigbee and Alabama rivers, Gulf of Mexico basins; the Middle Tennessee
River; and the Chattahoochee River. The models were configured using a detailed characterization of spatially
explicit hydrologic parameters based on 1:100,000-scale hydrography (National Hydrography Dataset Plus) in
conjunction with current geospatial data on climate, land-use, and topography .The calibration strategy
implemented a multi-objective estimation technique (based on a shuffled complex evolution algorithm) coupled
with a nested calibration approach, where upstream basins were calibrated before downstream basins. This
methodology allowed stream-flow calibration at most USGS stream gages in the study area. Model performance
was evaluated by calculating yearly Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) coefficients over the 10-year
simulation periods. Results showed the models were accurate in simulating stream flow (NSE > 0.5) and can be
used to quantify the current state of Alabama's surface water budget.
An Application of the National Hydrologic Model in Puerto Rico - Ashley Van Beusekom, North Carolina
State University, Wichita Falls, TX
The high rainfall in Puerto Rico's inland mountains supplies water to the rest of the densely populated island. The
sedimentary rocks nearer to the coast make swamps and estuaries common. Man-made reservoirs are
abundant; 70% of the water supply in Puerto Rico comes from surface water runoff. The reservoirs are also used
for collecting for flood control and hydroelectric power generation. Climate change in the Caribbean has reduced
the amount of rainfall in Puerto Rico. Because of this, the groundwater sources are being depleted and surface
water sources are becoming even more important. The National Hydrologic Model (NHM) approach was applied
to model the Puerto Rico hydrologic system over the past 60 years using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling
System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model that simulates the effects
of precipitation, temperature, and land-use on basin hydrology. This application used inputs from the NHM
Geospatial Fabric, which defined hydrologic response units and associated parameters from NHDPlus and other
datasets. The acreage of waterbodies is substantial enough that it was included in order to simulate the
hydrology of the surface depressions. After the NHM-consistent multi-basin, multi-step, multi-objective model
calibration with the past climate data was done, future climate scenarios were ran to assess the response of
Puerto Rico's hydrologic system to climate change.
An Application of the National Hydrologic Model in the Upper South Platte River Basin, Colorado –
Lauren Hay, U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO (co-author: E. Kuhr)
Warmer temperatures are hastening the timing of spring snowmelt peak flows on snowmelt-dominated rivers
across western North America. Currently, cottonwood and willow seed dispersal tends to occur during or just after
snowmelt peak flow. An application of the National Hydrologic Model was used to develop a simulation model of
the upper South Platte River Basin (SPRB, drainage area 25,016 km2) located in the front range of the Rocky
Mountains in Northern Colorado. The application will be used to simulate flood timing, potential climate change
effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, and seedling recruitment. This application used the
Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model that
simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land-use on basin hydrology. The South Platte River
Basin was first partitioned into Hydrologic Response Units based on an aggregation of NHDPlus watersheds.
Climate input data (temperature and precipitation) were then developed using the software program Downsizer.
Finally, the software program Project Chief was used to set up the modeling file structure, input files, and maps
required for PRMS application. A multi-basin, multi-step, multi-objective process was used for model calibration.
Results from this application are presented and will be used to evaluate the changes in the timing of both peak
streamflow which could potentially effect seedling recruitment.
Combining the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System with the Reg3CM Regional Climate Model to
Estimate Potential Effects of Climate Change on Northern Great Plains Streams - Katherine Chase, U.S.
Geological Survey, Helena, MT (co-authors: L. E. Hay, S. W. Hostetler)
Streams in the Northern Great Plains provide critical "green lines" of habitat for aquatic and terrestrial wildlife.
The fish in these streams have evolved to survive heat, cold, floods, and drought. However, changes in water
quantity associated with global climate change may transform some prairie streams from essential refuges to
habitats no longer capable of supporting fishes. U.S. Geological Survey researchers and their partners are
studying these potential changes in stream ecosystems in the Montana portion of the northern Great Plains. The
study design and preliminary results will be discussed during this presentation. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling
System (PRMS) loosely coupled with the RegCM3 regional climate model is being used to estimate possible
changes in streamflow under future climate scenarios in eastern Montana. PRMS is a deterministic, distributedparameter, process-based model that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on
streamflow. RegCM3 is used to dynamically downscale global climate simulations. Local PRMS models will be
constructed for the Redwater River and O'Fallon Creek watersheds in eastern Montana. Parameters for these
local models will be extracted from a regional PRMS model for the entire Missouri River watershed. The local
models will then be calibrated to historical streamflow data. Both the local and regional PRMS watershed models
will be used to simulate streamflows for more than 1,000 sites in eastern Montana where fisheries data have
been collected. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate a wide range of possible future climate scenarios on
a global scale. RegCM3 uses lateral boundary conditions from selected GCMs, and then simulates atmospheric
circulation and surface interactions internally at a 15-kilometer resolution. Precipitation and temperature time
series simulated by RegCM3 will be used to force the PRMS models to generate streamflows under possible
future climate scenarios. Fisheries managers will be able to combine possible future streamflows with fisheries
data to help focus conservation and restoration efforts in the northern Great Plains. Information related to
changes in timing and quantities of streamflow also will be useful to watershed conservation groups, ranchers,
and others that rely on northern Great Plains streams.