Download Global Markets Minesweeper

August 23, 2013
Global Markets Minesweeper
International Markets Analysis
FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION
German IFO indices, US consumer confidence index for August and US revised Q2 GDP are probably the key
announcements of the following week.
US consumer confidence index (27/8) for August and the final reading of University of Michigan confidence index (30/8)
will probably be consistent with moderate expansion of the consumption in the US. Durable goods orders for July will be
released on August 26. The PCE core index (30/8) has probably risen on a yearly basis in July at a pace indicative of
subdued inflationary pressure. US revised GDP (29/8) will likely indicate higher GDP growth in the second quarter
versus the first quarter. The S&P CaseShiller index (27/8) has likely increased in June for 17th consecutive month,
suggesting that the housing market is rebounding.
The S&P CaseShiller Home Price index indicates that the housing market is recovering.
USA: S&P/CaseShiller 20 (yoy change), 2001 - 2013
%
20
15
10
5
0
‐5
‐10
‐15
5/13
11/12
5/12
11/11
5/11
11/10
5/10
11/09
5/09
11/08
5/08
11/07
5/07
11/06
5/06
11/05
5/05
11/04
5/04
11/03
5/03
11/02
5/02
11/01
5/01
‐20
Source: Bloomberg
In the Eurozone, the Eurostat’s inflation estimate (30/8) for August is expected at 1.4% from 1.6% in July, still below the
policy target of the ECB (close but below 2%) for 7th consecutive month. Eurozone economic confidence (30/8) may
have risen in August at a high since March 2012. German IFO indices for August (27/8) will probably indicate that the
economy is recovering.
In the UK, the GfK consumer confidence index (30/8) is expected marginally higher in August compared to July.
Swiss KOF leading indicator for August will be announced on August 30.
In Japan, the industrial production (30/8) has likely risen in July for 5th month in the last 6 months. The National CPI
data for July (30/8) may indicate some improvement in the fight against deflation in Japan.
International Markets Analysis
t. +30 210 326 8265, [email protected]
International Markets Analysis
Global Markets Minesweeper
Event Risk Calendar, 26 - 30 August 2013
Monday 26/8
Period
Survey
Prior

Corporate Service Px Index (YoY)
Jul
0.4%
0.4%

US
Durable Goods Orders (ΜοΜ)
Jul
-3.6%
3.9%

26/8 15:30
US
Durables Ex Transportation (ΜοΜ)
Jul
0.5%
-0.1%

26/8 15:30
US
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (ΜοΜ)
Jul
0.5%
0.9%

26/8 17:30
US
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
Aug
--
4.4

Date Time
Country
26/8 02:50
JN
26/8 15:30
Event

UK markets closed (Spring Bank Holiday)

Auctions
GE

Germany to Sell EUR3 Bln 364-Day Bills (12:30)

Eco Event
FI

Bank of Finland Governor Liikanen will speak

Tuesday 27/8
Period
Survey
Prior

Small Business Confidence
Aug
--
49.4

GE
IFO Business Climate
Aug
107.0
106.2

27/8 11:00
GE
IFO Current Assessment
Aug
110.8
110.1

27/8 11:00
GE
IFO Expectations
Aug
103.0
102.4

27/8 16:00
US
S&P/CS 20 City SA (MoM)
Jun
1.00%
1.05%

27/8 16:00
US
S&P/CS Composite-20 (YoY)
Jun
11.90%
12.17%

27/8 17:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
Aug
--
-11

27/8 17:00
US
Consumer Confidence Index
Aug
79.3
80.3

27-30 AUG
UK
Nationwide House PX (MoM)
Aug
0.6%
0.8%

27-30 AUG
UK
Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY)
Aug
3.3%
3.9%

Date Time
Country
27/8 08:00
JN
27/8 11:00
Event

Auctions

JN
Japan to Sell 20-Year Bonds (06:45)
IT
Italy to Sell 1.7% I/L 2018, 3.1% I/L 2026 & EUR3 Bln Zero 2015 Bonds (12:00)
US
U.S. to Sell USD34 Bln 2-Year Notes (20:00)


Eco Event
GE

ECB member Asmussen speaks at forum (20:00)

Wednesday 28/8
Period
Survey
Prior

Import Price Index (MoM)
Jul
0.3%
-0.8%

GE
Import Price Index (YoY)
Jul
-2.5%
-2.2%

28/8 09:00
SZ
UBS Consumption Indicator
Jul
--
1.44

28/8 09:00
GE
GfK Consumer Confidence
Sep
7.1
7.0

28/8 11:00
IT
Retail Sales (MoM)
Jun
0.0%
0.1%

Date Time
Country
28/8 09:00
GE
28/8 09:00
2
Event
Global Markets Minesweeper
International Markets Analysis
28/8 11:00
IT
Retail Sales (YoY)
Jun
--
-1.1%

28/8 11:00
EC
M3 Money Supply (YoY)
Jul
2.1%
2.3%

28/8 13:00
UK
CBI Reported Sales
Aug
--
17

28/8 14:00
US
MBA Mortgage Applications
Aug 23
--
-4.6%

28/8 17:00
US
Pending Home Sales (MoM)
Jul
0.1%
-0.4%

28/8 17:00
US
Pending Home Sales (YoY)
Jul
--
9.1%


Auctions
US

U.S. to Sell USD35 Bln 5-Year Notes (20:00)

Eco Event
JN
BoJ Deputy Gorneror Iwata speaks (08:00)

UK
BoE Governor Carney speaks (14:45)


Thursday 29/8
Period
Survey
Prior

Retail Trade (YoY)
Jul
-0.1%
1.6%

JN
Retail Sales (MoM)
Jul
-1.3%
-0.2%

29/8 02:50
JN
Large Retailers' Sales
Jul
-0.5%
3.5%

29/8 09:45
FR
Business Confidence
Aug
96
95

29/8 10:00
SP
GDP (QoQ)
2Q F
-0.1%
-0.1%

29/8 10:00
SP
GDP (YoY)
2Q F
-1.7%
-1.7%

29/8 10:00
SP
CPI EU Harmonised (YoY)
Aug P
1.7%
1.9%

29/8 10:55
GE
Unemployment Rate
Aug
6.8%
6.8%

29/8 11:00
IT
Consumer Confidence Index
Aug
97.8
97.3

29/8 15:00
GE
CPI (MoM)
Aug P
0.1%
0.5%

29/8 15:00
GE
CPI (YoY)
Aug P
1.7%
1.9%

29/8 15:30
US
GDP Annualized (QoQ)
2Q S
2.3%
1.7%

29/8 15:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
Aug 23
--
336K

29/8 15:30
US
Personal Consumption
2Q S
1.8%
1.8%

29/8 15:30
US
GDP Price Index
2Q S
0.7%
0.7%

Date Time
Country
29/8 02:50
JN
29/8 02:50
Event

Auctions
JN
Japan to Sell 2-Year Bonds (06:45)

IT
Italy to Sell Bonds (12:00)

US
U.S. to Sell USD29 Bln 7-Year Notes (20:00)


Eco Event
US
Fed of St. Louis President Bullard speaks (15:50)

US
Fed of Richmond President Lacker will speak (21:00)


Friday 30/8
Period
Survey
Prior

GfK Consumer Confidence
Aug
-15
-16

JN
Overall Household Spending (YoY)
Jul
0.2%
-0.4%

30/8 02:30
JN
Jobless Rate
Jul
3.9%
3.9%

30/8 02:30
JN
Natl CPI (YoY)
Jul
0.7%
0.2%

Date Time
Country
30/8 02:05
UK
30/8 02:30
Event
Global Markets Minesweeper
3
International Markets Analysis

30/8 02:30
JN
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY)
Jul
0.6%
0.4%
30/8 02:30
JN
Tokyo CPI (YoY)
Aug
0.5%
0.4%
30/8 02:30
JN
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)
Aug
0.4%
0.3%
30/8 02:50
JN
Industrial Production (MoM)
Jul P
3.7%
-3.1%
30/8 02:50
JN
Industrial Production (YoY)
Jul P
2.0%
-4.6%
30/8 08:00
JN
Housing Starts (YoY)
Jul
14.3%
15.3%
30/8 09:00
GE
Retail Sales (MoM)
Jul
0.7%
-0.8%
30/8 09:00
GE
Retail Sales (YoY)
Jul
1.9%
-2.8%
30/8 10:00
SZ
KOF Leading Indicator
Aug
1.33
1.23
30/8 11:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
Jul P
12.2%
12.1%
30/8 11:30
UK
Net Consumer Credit
Jul
0.7B
0.5B
30/8 11:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
Jul
59.5K
57.7K
30/8 11:30
UK
M4 Money Supply (YoY)
Jul
--
1.5%
30/8 12:00
EC
Business Climate Indicator
Aug
-0.35
-0.53
30/8 12:00
EC
Economic Confidence
Aug
93.8
92.5
30/8 12:00
IT
CPI EU Harmonized (YoY)
Aug P
1.2%
1.2%
30/8 12:00
EC
Consumer Confidence
Aug F
--
-17.4
30/8 12:00
EC
Services Confidence
Aug
-6.9
-7.8
30/8 12:00
EC
Unemployment Rate
Jul
12.1%
12.1%

30/8 12:00
EC
CPI Estimate (YoY)
Aug
1.4%
1.6%

30/8 12:00
EC
CPI Core (YoY)
Aug A
1.2%
1.1%
30/8 15:30
US
Personal Income (ΜοΜ)
Jul
0.2%
0.3%
30/8 15:30
US
Personal Spending (ΜοΜ)
Jul
0.3%
0.5%
30/8 15:30
US
PCE Deflator (MoM)
Jul
0.2%
0.4%
30/8 15:30
US
PCE Deflator (YoY)
Jul
1.5%
1.3%
30/8 15:30
US
PCE Core (MoM)
Jul
0.2%
0.2%
30/8 15:30
US
PCE Core (YoY)
Jul
1.3%
1.2%
30/8 16:45
US
Chicago Purchasing Manager
Aug
53.0
52.3

30/8 16:55
US
Univ. of Michigan Confidence
Aug F
80.5
80.0

Eco Event
US
Fed of St. Louis President Bullard speaks on the economy and monetary policy (16:00)
International Markets Analysis
www.alpha.gr
Panos Remoundos
Maria Koutouzi
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA
Konstantinos Anathreptakis
+30 210 326 8265




[email protected]
panos.remoundos@@alpha.gr
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Disclaimer:
The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make no representation or warranty, express or
implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of such information. In addition we have no obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to
otherwise notify a recipient in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. We
are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that recipients seek their own independent advice in relation to
any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change
the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate
or other market or economic measure. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This communication is provided for information purposes only. It is
not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor to enter into any agreement or contract with Alpha bank or any affiliates. In addition, because this communication
is a summary only it may not contain all material terms, and therefore this communication in and of itself should not form the basis for any investment decision. Financial instruments that
may be discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors, and potential investors must make an independent assessment of the appropriateness of any transaction in light of their
own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such a transaction. By accepting receipt of this communication the recipient will be deemed
to represent that they possess, either individually or through their advisers, sufficient investment expertise to understand the risks involved in any purchase or sale of any financial
instrument discussed herein.
4
Global Markets Minesweeper