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PVC in Eastern Europe
Special market report
2006
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PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
RESUME…............................................................................................................... 6
DEFINITIONS IN THE REPORT................................................................................ 7
1. MACROECONOMIC INDEXES OF EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ................... 11
2. PVC MARKET: WORLD TRENDS ......................................................................... 19
2.1. World PVC Market .................................................................................. 19
2.2. Asian PVC Market................................................................................... 27
2.3. PVC Market in Western Europe ................................................................ 28
3. PVC MARKET IN EASTERN EUROPE ................................................................... 32
3.1. General Market Trends ........................................................................... 32
3.2. Consumption of PVC in Eastern European Countries .................................. 35
3.3. Production of PVC by Countries of Eastern Europe ...................................... 46
3.4. Export of PVC by Countries of Eastern Europe............................................ 49
3.5. Import of PVC by Countries of Eastern Europe ........................................... 51
3.6. The Balance of the VCM Market in Eastern Europe...................................... 53
3.7. The Balance of the Chlorine and Caustic Markets in Eastern Europe.............. 57
а) Chlorine..............................................................................................57
b) Caustic ...............................................................................................61
4. PVC MARKET BY COUNTRIES OF EASTERN EUROPE .......................................... 32
4.1. Poland ................................................................................................ 65
4.1.1. The General Economic Situation ........................................................65
4.1.2. Consumption of PVC ........................................................................68
а) Profile Market ......................................................................................71
b) Pipe Market .........................................................................................72
c) Other Markets......................................................................................73
4.1.3. Production of PVC ...........................................................................73
4.1.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets............75
4.2. Hungary.............................................................................................. 78
4.2.1. The General Economic Situation ........................................................78
4.2.2. Consumption of PVC ........................................................................80
а) Profile Market ......................................................................................83
b) Pipe Market .........................................................................................83
4.2.3. Production of PVC ...........................................................................84
4.2.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets............87
4.3. Romania ............................................................................................. 91
4.3.1. The General Economis Situation ........................................................91
4.3.2. Consumption of PVC ........................................................................92
а) Profile Market ......................................................................................94
b) Pipe Market ........................................................................................94
4.3.3. Production of PVC ...........................................................................96
4.3.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets............99
4.4. The Czech Republic........................................................................... 103
4.4.1. The General Economic Situation ...................................................... 103
4.4.2. Consumption of PVC ...................................................................... 105
4.4.3. Production of PVC ......................................................................... 107
4.4.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets.......... 109
4.5. Slovakia............................................................................................ 111
4.5.1. The General Economic Situation ...................................................... 111
4.5.2. Consumption of PVC ...................................................................... 112
4.5.3. Production of PVC ......................................................................... 114
4.5.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets.......... 114
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PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
4.6. Former Yugoslavia……………….……………………………………….……………………116
4.6.1. The General Economic Situation ………………………………………………………………………………116
4.6.2. Consumption of PVC …………………………………………………………………………………………………119
4.6.3. Production of PVC ……………………………………………………………………………………………………121
4.6.4. The Balance of the Chlorine and Caustic Markets …………………………………………………124
4.7. Bulgaria……………………………….……………………..……………….…………………..127
4.7.1. The General Economis Situation ………………………………………………………………………………127
4.7.2. Consumption of PVC …………………………………………………………………………………………………128
4.7.3. Production of PVC………………………………………………………………………………………………………130
4.7.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets …………………………131
4.8. Baltic Countries……………………………………………………………..…………………..133
4.8.1. The General Economic Situation ………………………………………………………………………………133
а) Latvia ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………134
б) Lithuania …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………135
в) Estonia………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………136
4.8.2. Consumption of PVC …………………………………………………………………………………………………137
4.8.3. Production of PVC………………………………………………………………………………………………………139
4.8.4. The Balance of the Chlorine and Caustic Markets……………………………………………………139
4.9. The Republic of Belarus………………………………………..……….……………………140
4.9.1. The General Economic Situation ………………………………………………………………………………140
4.9.2. Consumption of PVC …………………………………………………………………………………………………142
4.9.3. Production of PVC………………………………………………………………………………………………………143
4.9.4. The Balance of the Chlorine and Caustic Markets……………………………………………………143
4.10. Turkey……………………………………………………………………….……………………144
4.10.1. The General Economic Situation ……………………………………………………………………………144
4.10.2. Consumption of PVC ………………………………………………………………………………………………146
4.10.3. Production of PVC……………………………………………………………………………………………………150
4.10.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets ………………………152
5. INFLUENCE OF OTHER REGIONS ON PVC MARKET OF EASTERN EUROPE……..154
5.1. Iran ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………155
5.2. China ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………158
5.3. South Korea …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………165
APPENDIX……………………………………………………………………………………………….167
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PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
This market report includes consumption, production and export-import
analysis of PVC, VCM, Chlorine and Caustic in all countries of Eastern Europe.
Report provides the data from 2000 to 2005 as well as market forecast for 2010.
Report was prepared by analysts of Harriman Chemsult and Market Report
Company (MRC).
We would like to present you the up-to-date PVC market report with
aggregated data about sixteen Eastern European countries. Besides additional data
on Russia, Turkey, Iran, China, South Korea and Japan are presented. There is the
detailed analysis of trends in consumption markets and presentation of activity of
the largest producers and consumers.
We estimated the prospects of PVC consumption in each country of Eastern
Europe up to 2010. Separately we have analyzed the consumption, production and
export-import of VCM, ethylene, chlorine and caustic in each country as well. There
is a detailed description of each PVC producer according to its production balance
(VCM, ethylene and chlorine availability, caustic sales ability).
We have analyzed the Asian region to understand its influence on PVC
market in Eastern Europe in the nearest future. In particular, the market situation
and development trends in China, its influence on possible deliveries of PVC from
South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
In the report, you can also find answers for the following questions:
¾ What is PVC, Chlorine and Caustic consumption level in each country of Eastern Europe?
How will these markets develop until 2010?
¾ Which PVC processing sectors will be the most perspective in Eastern Europe?
¾ How will profile, pipes, flooring and films markets develop in Poland, Hungary, Czech
Republic, Slovakia and Romania?
¾ What is PVC consumption growth potential in Turkey? How will the declared PVC projects
in Iran influence on Eastern European producers positions in Turkey?
¾ Will VCM delivery balance be broken because of PVC production input in Kalush?
¾ Why were the PVC productions in Tarnow, Oswiecim and Dwory closed? Will PVC
productions in Pancevo and Devnya be reanimated or not?
¾ What are Dioki perspectives to renew the VCM capacities by 2008-2009?
¾ How well are PVC/VCM/Chlorine/Caustic productions in BorsodChem, Anwil, Oltchim,
Spolana, NCHZ, Petkim balanced?
¾ How will the chlorine and caustic markets develop in each country of Eastern Europe?
Which exactly companies are the biggest chlorine/caustic consumers in these countries?
¾ What is the role of China for the nearest years - PVC importer or exporter?
¾ Where will Japan, South Korea, Taiwan redirect their PVC export deliveries during the
next three-five years?
Statistics of report:
187 pages, 133 tables, 215 diagrams,
31 355 words, 204 companies mentioned, 20 appendixes
Format:
PDF file or color paper version.
Contact
[email protected]
4
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PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
List of tables
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Construction volumes in EE, mln. sq. m
Construction volumes growth in countries of Eastern Europe, %
The world PVC demand, 2003
The world PVC market, КТ
PVC-paste world balance, 2004, КТ
The World biggest producers of PVC-S and PVC-paste, 2004
The World PVC-E capacity expansion, КТа
The World trade balance of PVC-Е , 2010, КТ
PVC demand distribution in Asia, 2004
PVC consumption in Western Europe , 2003-2004, КТ
PVC market in Western Europe, 2003-200, КТ
PVC market indexes in Western Europe, 2003-2005, КТ
Real PVC consumption increase in countries of EE
PVC consumption in countries of Eastern Europe, MT
PVC pipe market in Eastern Europe, КТ
Polymers use for pipe production
PVC production in countries of Eastern Europe, КТ
PVC capacities in countries of Eastern Europe, КТа
PVC capacity loading in countries of Eastern Europe, %
PVC export from Eastern Europe, MT
Export share in PVC production, MT
PVC import into countries of Eastern Europe, MT
Import share in PVC consumption, MT
VCM capacities in countries of Eastern Europe, MT
VCM export-import in countries if Western Europe, 2005, КТ
Chlorine import into countries pf EE, MT
Chlorine export from countries of EE, MT
Caustic import into countries of EE, MT
Caustic export form countries of EE, MT
Macroeconomic indexes of Poland
New capacities in polymers production until 2010
PVC market in Poland, MT
Some PVC articles production in Poland, MT
Window profile production in Poland, 2004, mln. USD
Pipe producers in Poland, 2004, mln. USD
Flooring producers in Poland, 2004, mln. USD
PVC production in Poland, MT
PVC compounds production in Poland, 2000-2004, MT
Chlorine market in Poland, MT
Caustic consumption in Poland by branches, КТ
Chlorine/caustic capacities in Poland, КТ
Caustic market in Poland, MT
Caustic consumption in Poland by branches, КТ
Macroeconomic indexes of Hungary
PVC market in Hungary, MT
Consumption of PVC-S for articles production, Hungary, MT
BorsodChem capacities, КТа
PVC production in Hungary, т
PVC compounds production in Hungary, 2000-2004, MT
Chlorine market in Hungary, MT
Chlorine consumption in Hungary by branches, КТ
Chlorine/Caustic capacities in Hungary, КТ
Caustic market in Hungary, MT
Caustic consumption in Hungary by branches, КТ
Chlorine/ Caustic capacities in Hungary, КТ
Caustic market in Hungary, MT
Caustic consumption in Hungary by branches, КТ
Macroeconomic indexes of Hungary
PVC market in Romania, MT
PVC-S deliveries, Oltchim production, MT
Oltchim capacities, КТа
Chlorine market in Romania, MT
Chlorine consumption in Romania by branches, КТ
Chlorine/ Caustic capacities in Romania, КТ
Caustic market in Romania, MT
Caustic consumption in Romania by branches, КТ
Macroeconomic indexes of Czech Republic
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PVC market in Czech Republic, MT
PVC consumption in Czech Republic, MT
PVC finished articles export/import in Czech Republic, MT
PVC-S deliveries in Czech Republic, MT
PVC compounds deliveries in Czech Republic, MT
PVC compounds import-export to Czech Republic, MT
Chlorine market а in Czech Republic, MT
Chlorine consumption in Czech Republic by branches, КТ
Chlorine/Caustic capacities in Czech Republic, КТ
Caustic market in Czech Republic, MT
Caustic consumption in Czech Republic by branches, КТ
Macroeconomic indexes of Slovakia
PVC market in Slovakia, MT
Chlorine market in Slovakia, MT
Chlorine consumption in Slovakia by branches, КТ
Chlorine/Caustic capacities in Slovakia, КТ
Caustic market in Slovakia, MT
Caustic consumption in Slovakia by branches, КТ
Macroeconomic indexes of ex-Yugoslavia
GDP in countries of ex-Yugoslavia, 2004, %
GDP in countries of ex-Yugoslavia, mln. USD
GDP per capita in countries of ex-Yugoslavia, USD
Population in countries of ex-Yugoslavia, thous. people.
Dioki capacities, КTа
Dioki production, КТ
Chlorine market in ex-Yugoslavia, MT
Chlorine consumption in ex-Yugoslavia, MT
Chlorine production capacities in ex-Yugoslavia, MT
Chlorine production in ex-Yugoslavia, MT
Caustic market in ex-Yugoslavia, MT
Caustic consumption in ex-Yugoslavia, MT
Caustic production in ex-Yugoslavia, MT
Caustic import into ex-Yugoslavia, MT
Macroeconomic indexes of Bulgaria
PVC market in Bulgaria, MT
Petrochemical production deliveries from Burgas, MT
Chlorine market in Bulgaria, MT
Chlorine consumption in Bulgaria by branches, КТ
Chlorine/Caustic capacities in Bulgaria, КТа
Caustic market in Bulgaria, MT
Caustic consumption in Bulgaria by branches, КТ
Macroeconomic indexes of Baltic countries
Macroeconomic indexes of Latvia
Macroeconomic indexes of Lithuania
Macroeconomic indexes of Estonia
PVC market in Baltic countries, MT
Chlorine market in Baltic countries, MT
Chlorine consumption in Baltic countries, MT
Caustic market in Baltic countries, MT
Caustic consumption in Baltic countries, MT
Macroeconomic indexes of Belarus’
PVC market in Belarus’, MT
Chlorine market in Belarus’, MT
Caustic market in Belarus’, MT
Macroeconomic indexes of Turkey
PVC market in Turkey, MT
Production capacities of Petkim, 2005
Basic polymers production in Turkey, MT
Chlorine market in Turkey, MT
Caustic market in Turkey, MT
PVC market in Iran, КТ
PVC production capacities in Iran, 2004-2010, КТа
PVC market in Iran, 2004-2010, КТ
Macroeconomic indexes of South Korea
Petrochemical production in South Korea, KТ
Petrochemical production in Japan, KT
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PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
List of diagrams and pictures
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GDP increase in the world, %
Industrial production increase in the world, %
GDP increase in countries of EE, %
GDP in current prices in EE, bln. USD
GDP distribution in EE, 2004, %
GDP increase in some countries of EE, %
Population in EE, mln. people.
GDP per capita in EE, USD
GDP in countries of EE, 2004, bln. USD
GDP in countries of EE, 2010, bln. USD
GDP in countries of EE (РРР), 2004, bln. USD
GDP distribution in EE, 2010, %
Construction per capita in EE , sq. m
Construction volumes in EE, 2004, %
Construction in EE, 2004, mln. sq. m
Total construction volumes growth 2005-2008, % to 2004
Basic polymers consumption in the world, 2004, %
PVC world balance, 1995-2004
PVC world production, mln. MT
PVC world capacities distribution , 2005-2010
New PVC capacities, 2005-2010, %
PVC world capacities, 2004, %
PVC world capacities, 2010, %
PVC world prices, USD / MT
PVC-Е world consumption structure, 2004, %
PVC-Е consumption in the world, 2004, %
PVC-Е consumption structure in Western Europe, 2004, %
PVC-Е consumption structure in Western Europe by
countries, 2004, %
PVC deliveries balance in some countries of Asia, KT
PVC prices, FOB / NWE, USD /MT
PVC producers in Western Europe, 2004
PVC production integration in Western Europe
PVC production in Western Europe, 2004, %
Average PVC production capacities, 2005, KТа
PVC consumption in Western Europe, 2004, %
PVC consumption in Western Europe by countries, %
PVC consumption in the world, mln. MT
PVC consumption in the world, kg/person
PVC region markets, 2004, kg
PVC region markets, 2010, kg
PVC consumption in EE, 2004
Pipe PVC consumption in EE, 2004
Soft compounds consumption in EE, 2004
Rigid compounds consumption in EE, 2004
Chlorine-vynil branch situation in world regions, 2004
PVC consumption in EE, 2004, КТ
PVC consumption in EE by countries, 2004, %
PVC consumption in EE, 2004, КТ
PVC consumption in EE by countries, 2010, КТ
PVC consumption in EE, КТ
PVC consumption per capita in EE, kg
PVC market components in EE, КТ
PVC-E consumption increase, 2005-2010, %
PVC –E consumption in CEE, 2004
PVC price, 2000-2006, USD /MT
Profile productionin Europe, 2003
Profile consumption in Europe, 2003
PVC profile consumption per 1000 homes, MT
PVC pipe consumption in CEE, 2004
Evolution of pipe market
Pipe consumption increase, 2000-2005, Western Europe, %
European pipes market, КТ
Pipes consumption, France, 2004
Pipes consumption, Switzerland, 2004
Pipes consumption, Germany, 2004
Pipes consumption, Poland, 2004
PVC production by EE countries, КТ
PVC production/capacities in EE, КТ
PVC capacities in EE, 2004, %
PVC capacities loading in EE, %
PVC export by EE countries, КТ
PVC import into Turkey, КТ
PVC import by EE countries, КТ
PVC / VCM Capacities in EE, 2004, КТ
PVC/ VCM production in EE, КТ
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VCM capacities loading in EE, %
VCM Capacities by EE countries, 2004, %
PVC/VCM production without Kalush, КТ
VCM capacities by EE countries, 2010, %
VCM deliveries from Kalush, 2004, %
VCM deliveries from Kalush, 2005, %
PVC / VCM capacities in EE, КТ
Chlorine consumption in EE, КТ
Chlorine consumption in EE, 2004, %
Chlorine market in EE, КТ
Chlorine production in EE, КТ
Chlorine production in EE, 2004, %
Chlorine production capacities in EE, 2004
Chlorine capacities loading in EE, %
Chlorine import into EE, 2004, %
Chlorine export from EЕ, 2004, %
Caustic consumption in EE, КТ
Caustic consumption in EE, 2004, %
Caustic market in EE, КТ
Caustic production in EE, КТ
Caustic production in EE, 2004, %
Caustic capacities in EE, 2004, %
Caustic capacities loading in EE, %
Caustic import into EE, 2004, %
Caustic export from EE, 2004, %
GDP in Poland, bln. Zlt.
Chemical market in Poland, bln. EUR
Polymers consumption in Poland, 2004, %
PVC consumption in Poland, КТ
PVC consumption per capita, Poland, kg
PVC market components in Poland, КТ
PVC import into Poland, 2005, %
PVC prices in Poland, 2000-2006, USD / MT
Poland. PVC consumption by markets, КТ
PVC –S consumption in Poland, 2004, %
Windows sale structure in Poland, %
PVC soft compound consumption in Poland, 2004, %
PVC rigid compounds consumption in Poland, 2004, %
PVC compounds processing in Poland, КТ
Goods production of PVC chain in Poland, 2004, КТ
GDP in Hungary, bln. EUR
Hungary. Construction volumes per capita, sq. m
PVC end consumption in Hungary, КТ
PVC –S consumption in Hungary, КТ
Hungary. PVC consumption per capita, kg
Hungary. PVC market components, КТ
BorsodChem PVC-S deliveries, КТ
PVC price, 2000-2006, USD /MT
PVC-S consumption by markets, Hungary, КТ
PVC production профиля in Hungary, КТ
Production of polymeric pipes in Hungary, КТ
VCM capacities,BorsodChem, KTa
PVC production chain, BorsodChem
Soft compounds production in Hungary, 2004, %
Rigid compounds production in Hungary, 2004, %
PVC compounds consumption in Hungary, КТ
PVC compounds production in Hungary, КТ
Goods production of PVC chain в BorsodChem, 2005
Goods production of PVC chain capacities in BorsodChem, 2010
Ethylene deliveries capacities in BorsodChem
Ethylene balance in TVK, 2005
GDP in Romania, bln. USD
Romania. Construction volumes per capita, sq. m
PVC end consumption in Romania, КТ
Romania. PVC consumption per capita, kg
PVC market components in Romania, КТ
Romania. PVC profile consumption, КТ
PVC profile import into Romania, 2003, %
PVC production in Romania, КТ
Oltchim PVC capacities, КТа
Oltchim location
PVC production chain, Oltchim
PVC production goods balance, Oltchim, 2004
Petrom production, КТ
GDP in Czech Republic, bln. EUR
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PVC in Eastern Europe - 2006
List of diagrams and pictures (continuation)
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Czech Republic. Construction volumes per capita, sq. m
PVC consumption in Czech Republic, КТ
Czech Republic. PVC consumption per capita, kg
Czech Republic. PVC market components, КТ
Spolana. Before and after flood, 2002
GDP of Slovakia, bln. EUR
PVC consumption in Slovakia, КТ
Slovakia. PVC consumption per capita, kg
Slovakia. PVC market components, КТ
GDP of ex-Yugoslavia, bln. USD
GDP per capita in ex-Yugoslavia, 2004, bln. USD
PVC consumption in ex-Yugoslavia, КТ
PVC consumption in ex-Yugoslavia, 2004, %
Ex-Yugoslavia. PVC consumption per capita, kg
PVC consumption per capita, 2004, kg
Dioki capacities, КТ
Dioki production, КТ
Dioki production chain, КТ
GDP in Bulgaria, bln. USD
PVC consumption in Bulgaria, КТ
Bulgaria. PVC consumption per capita, kg
PVC import into Bulgaria, 2005, %
PVC production forecast in Bulgaria, 2007, %
GDP in Baltic countries, bln. EUR
GDP in Baltic countries, 2005, %
GDP per capita in Baltic countries, thous. USD
PVC consumption in Baltic countries, КТ
PVC consumption in Baltic countries, 2005, %
Baltic countries. PVC consumption per capita, kg
Baltic countries. PVC consumption per capita, 2004, kg
GDP in Belarus’, bln. USD
PVC consumption in Belarus’, КТ
Belarus’. PVC consumption per capita, kg
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GDP in Turkey, bln. USD
Polymers consumption and GMP increase in Turkey, %
Petrochemical productions in Turkey
PVC consumption in Turkey, КТ
Turkey. PVC consumption per capita, kg
Turkey. PVC market components, КТ
PVC import into Turkey, КТ
First five PVC importers to Turkey, КТ
PVC importers, duty free, КТ
PVC-S producers shares in Turkey, 2004, %
PVC-S consumption structure in Turkey, 2005, %
Geography of PVC processors in Turkey
PVC articles export form Turkey, 2004, %
Petkim PVC production area
Petrochemical goods production, Petkim
Caustic import into Turkey, 2005, %
PVC consumption per capita in Iran, кг
PVC-S consumption in Iran, 2004, %
PVC producers shares in Iran, 2004, %
Main PVC importers to Iran, 2004, %
GDP in China, bln. USD
PVC consumption in China, mln. MT
China. PVC consumption per capita, kg
China. PVC market balance, mln. MT
Planed new PVC capacities in China
Average PVC production capacity in Asia, КТа
PVC capacities distribution in China
PVC market balance in China, 2004, %
PVC consumption in China, 2005, %
PVC deliveries to China, 2003, %
PVC export dependence from China deliveries
GDP in South Korea, bln . USD
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PVC in Eastern Europe - 2006
List of companies mentioned
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17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
Abadan Petrochemical Plant
Ajka
Alfa PVC
Alpro
Aluminipari
Aluplast
Aluplast Romania
Anwil
Arkema
Arvand
Atofina
Autobar Packaging Balkan
Basell Orlen Polyolefins
BBG Alum
BC-Ablakprofil
BC-Ongropack
Blick
BorsodChem
Budapesti Vegyim
Budimex SA
Budimex Unibud
Bulplast
Cangzhou
Catalytic Int
CEC
CEFIC
Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia
Central Statistical Bureau of Lithuania
Chematex
Chemopetrol
ChemOrbis
ChimComplex
CMAI
Cooling towers
Corina Gealan
CTIP
Czech Statistical Office
De Nora
De Nora
De Nora Permelec
Deceuninck
Decora
Devnya
Dioki
Dow
DSM
Dwory
Echo Investment
Elcabel
Elektrobosna E I
ERG Bierun
Ergis
Erpen
Escape
EVC
Exbud Skanska
Filpen
Firatpen
Formosa
Fulcrum Global Partners
Gamaplast
Gealan
Gealan Polska
Ghadir
Gotmar
Granpol
Hansaplast
Harriman Chemsult.
Heghmatane
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
134.
135.
136.
137.
Heimatieh
HIP
Hochtief Polska
Hungarian Central Statistical Office
Huyndai
Hydro
ICIS-LOR
Imam Khomeini
INCEL
Ineos
Instalplast-Lask
Iran Petrochemical Commerce Company
ITD
Kabro
Kaczmarek-2
Kapitan Diado Nikola
Kommerling
Kompen
Krupp Uhde
KWH Pipe
Lentex
LG Chem
Lipoplast Timisora
LVM
Matroz
Metalplast – Oboroniki
Michael Rigby Associates
Mitex SA
Mitsui Chem
Mitsui Eng
MOL
Mominakrepost
Mondo Style Timisoara
Mostostal Warszawa
Mostostal Zabrze Holding
Nafta Polska S.A.
National Bureau of Statistics of China
National statistic office of Republic of
Korea
National statistical institute of Bulgaria
Nexant
Ningxia West
Nitrokémia 2000
NCHZ
Ohis-Komerc
Oknoplast
Oltchim S.A.
OMV
Orianea
Pagev
Pakpen
Panorama Ablakgyarto
Penta-Group
Pestan
Petar Karaminchev
Petco
Petkim
Petkim Petrokimya Holding
Pimas
PipeLife
PKN Orlen
Plastchim
Plastcommerce
Plastform
Plastics Review
Plastsistem
Polimeri
Polinex
Polish Chamber of Chemical
Industry
138.
139.
140.
141.
142.
143.
144.
145.
146.
147.
148.
149.
150.
151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.
157.
158.
159.
160.
161.
162.
163.
164.
165.
166.
167.
168.
169.
170.
171.
172.
173.
174.
175.
176.
177.
178.
179.
180.
181.
182.
183.
184.
185.
186.
187.
188.
189.
190.
191.
192.
193.
194.
195.
196.
197.
198.
199.
200.
201.
202.
203.
Profil PVC
Profilink
Profine
Profine Romania
Pukad
PV Plastik
Qilu
Rehau
Romaplast
Samsung
Saponia
Seltra
Shell Chemicals
Shenyang
Shin Etsu
Sinochem
Slovnaft
Sodaso
Solvay Kemia
Solvin
Spolana
Spolek
Statistical Office of Estonia
Stigma
Stone & Webster Eng
Storgozia
Strabag
Suki Group
Tainyuan
TCT
Technip
Teolinoplast
Terraplast
ThyssenKrupp
Tianyuan Shanghai
Tovama
Tovarna KIH
Trocal
Turkish statistical institution
TVK
UCT
Unipetrol
Uponor
Uponor Polska
Valplast
Veka
Vestolit
Vias
Vinnolit
Warbud SA
Wavin
Wavin Metalplast
Weiss-Profil
World Bank
Xinjiang Tianye
Zachem
ZAW Tarnowie
ZC Oswiecim
ZC Rokita
ZC Zachem
Zelin
Zupa
KAR
Karpatneftechem
Lukoil-neftechem
Ministry of statistics and
analysis of Belarus’ Republic
204. Finance Ministry of Slovak
8
© www.mrcchemical.com
©
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
Resume
We would like to present our new report that has been worked out jointly by
two companies: Market Report Company (MRC) and Harriman Chemsult.
Collecting information for this report we found out that there were practically
no aggregated data on the PVC market for the countries of Eastern Europe (EE). As
a rule, reports pertain either to some certain countries or to a group of countries of
this region. We tried to fill this gap and compiled a general report that embraces all
countries of Eastern Europe. Now, our comprehensive analysis includes materials on
16 countries with the total population of 178 million. Furthermore, we paid special
attention to the influence exerted by neighboring countries, mainly by Turkey and
Russia.
Macroeconomic figures of Eastern European countries are quite positive
today. Within the recent six years the general GDP rate has been growing by 4-5%
annually. The volume of GDP, evaluated at the purchasing power parity rate,
constituted USD 1 825 billion in 2005, which corresponds to the current GDP rate of
Great Britain or France, for instance. By the year 2010, the GDP index per capita (in
current prices) would have exceeded the level of USD 7.6 thous. Moreover, in the
For the first time we
tried to embrace the
PVC market of all
Eastern European
countries
Czech Republic and in Hungary, this figure already now makes up USD 10 thous.,
and in Slovenia the GDP per capita will correspond to the current level of Spain and
Greece by 2010 (see Section 1).
The construction market in EE countries demonstrates positive dynamics as
well. We would like to draw your attention to the Polish construction market, which
holds about 44% of all construction volumes in the region. Since the EU is going to
grant about EUR 48 billion for the development of the Polish infrastructure by the
year 2012, we are looking forward to continuing growth of construction in Poland.
The PVC market in Eastern Europe is one of the fastest growing markets in
the world (see Section 2). Within the nearest five years the overall PVC
consumption will be increasing by 7-8% annually. The highest growth rates will be
observed in Romania, Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. In 2010, the overall PVC
consumption in the region will exceed the level of 1.1 mln. MT, and the PVC
consumption per capita will approach to the world average level of 6.5 kg per
person.
Today, the Eastern European region is the net exporter of PVC. In 2004, the
export constituted 75% of the total output of PVC manufactured there. The biggest
exporters of PVC are Hungary, Romania and Poland. Despite of the dominating
domestic PVC manufacture, import of PVC to Eastern Europe increases in average
by 12% per year. The highest import figures are recorded in Poland (240 КТ),
Ukraine (80 КТ) and Hungary (31 КТ) – see Section 3.
Turkey is the main importer of PVC from Eastern Europe now. The market of
PVC in this country will be increasing by 8% annually, furthermore, the growth of
consumption right up to the year 2010 will be provided exclusively by the growth of
import supplies of PVC. Forecasting development of the EE market till the year
2010, we took into account possible increasing export opportunities of Iran (Section
© www.mrcchemical.com
9
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
4.1), which, in the future, may affect export supplies to Turkey of the biggest
Eastern European manufacturers such as Oltchim, BorsodChem and Anwil.
Since the PVC production is inseparably linked with the production of Chlor
Alkali products, VCM, EDC and ethylene, we made up balances of all these products
by each country of Eastern Europe, where PVC production facilities are located. At
present, the overall PVC production capacity is in general coordinated with that of
VCM. However, the utilization of the latter, not taking into account, the VCM plant in
Kalush, constitutes 96-98% today. Shall the PVC-S project in Kalush be realized
(the planned capacity is 300 KTa), by the year 2010, there may arise shortage of
VCM at the level of 120-150 KT in the market of Eastern Europe (see Section 3.6)
Reasoning from the existing and forecast balance of production capacities of
PVC, VCM, EDC, chlorine, caustic and ethylene, we analysed possibilities to increase
such capacities by each EE PVC manufacturer. We drew up balances for the entire
chain of products used in PVC production for Anwil, BorsodChem, Oltchim, Spolana,
NCHZ and Petkim. We analysed opportunities of Lukoil-Neftechem in view of PVC
The report places emphasis on
important issues of the
industry: development of PVC
processing, VCM market
balance, influence of Turkey,
Iran and China
production in Kalush, as well as that of Dioki on restoration of VCM and PVC
production.
The fourth Section of the Report (4.1 – 4.10) is entirely dedicated to the
detailed description of trends in consumption, production and foreign trade of PVC,
VCM and chlorine-caustic separately in each country of Eastern Europe. Studying
markets of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania and Turkey, we
separately analysed PVC consumption structure by processing sectors. Having
studied these data you may find out, for instance, that in terms of PVC profile
production per one thousand dwellings, EE countries are outstripping now many
states in Western Europe, and Poland in terms of this index is basically the AllEuropean leader. We analysed prospects of PVC processing in profile, pipe, cable
and flooring sectors separately by each Eastern European country.
Many experts forecast coming of Chinese PVC to the market of Eastern
Europe within the nearest three-four years, referring to supplies from China to
Turkey and Russia which already took place in 2005. We also analysed key trends in
the Chinese market (Section 5.2) and determined prospects of PVC export from this
country. Taking into account the inseparable link of the Chinese market with the
PVC export from Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, we tried to analyse the potential
of these countries in their search for new export opportunities in new regions,
including markets of Eastern European countries (Section 5.3).
All detailed data (GDP, demographics, construction volumes, consumption,
output, export and import of PVC, VCM, chlorine, caustic, etc.) by each Eastern
European country, including Turkey and Russia, over the period 2000 – 2010 are
presented in respective tables in Appendix to this report.
© www.mrcchemical.com
©
10
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
...extract from report…
1. Macroeconomic Indexes of East European Countries
The economy of countries of the Eastern European region (hereinafter referred
to as EE) is one of the fastest developing economies in the world. The growth of
the GDP over the period 2005-2007 will make up a bit more than 5%, which is by
1.5 times more than average in the world, and by almost two times more than in
the countries of Western Europe (see D.1.1).
D.1.1. Growth of GDP in the world, %
Central&Eastern Europe
8
Europe 25
Southeast Asia
South America
World
USA
7,1 6,9
6,3
6,2
6
5,3
6,2
4,1 4,3
4
3,1
2,3
4,4
4
3,5
3,8
3,1 3
3,2
3,5
2,2
2,1
1,8
2
6
5
4,8
0
2004
The growth of
the EE economy
will have
constituted 4%
by 2010
2005
2006
2007
Source: CEFIC
According to the forecast of the World Bank, the growth of the GDP in 15
countries of Eastern Europe will be remaining at the level of 4% right up to the
year 2010.
The GDP per capita in the countries of Eastern Europe is not homogeneous
either. The highest level was recorded in Slovenia, the Czech Republic and
Hungary in 2004 (D. 1.9).
GDP per capita, 000 USD
D.1.9. GDP* in EE countries, 2004, USD bln.
20
Slovenia
32
15
Czech Rep
107
Hungary
100
10
Slovakia 41
Poland
242
Turkey
302
Lithuania 22
5
Russia
582
Eastern Europe
825
Ex-Yugoslavia 104
Bulgaria 24
Romania
73
Ukraine
65
0
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Population, mln. people
* in current prices
Source: WorldBank
… It is of no less importance to consider distribution of GDP, calculated by
PPP (purchasing power parity). This index demonstrates the potential of
underestimated economies of Eastern Europe, which still undergo structural
changes.
... Among other markets we should single out the Hungarian market, which
is the leader in Eastern Europe in terms of construction per capita, and the market
© www.mrcchemical.com
11
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
of Lithuania, where the level of the specific construction is higher than in Russia,
Belarus and Ukraine taken together. The volumes of the construction market in
Turkey are by more than two times higher than the similar figures in Russia (D.
1.15).
Construction
per capita, sq.m.
D.1.15. Construction in EE, 2004, mln. sq.m.
5
Hungary
46
4
Poland
142
Czechia
30
3
EE
265
2
Litva
5
Romania
Turkey
30
94
Russia
1
Belarus
44
Ukraine
4
8
0
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Population, mln.
In Poland and in
Hungary the
construction markets
will be developing faster
than in any other
European countries
Source: MRC
The construction market of Poland exceeds the Russian market in terms of
absolute indexes by more than 3.5 times. Besides, the volumes of Polish
construction are significant even comparing with progressive countries of the
world. Most probably, the construction market of Poland will continue to develop
very quickly in future, taking into consideration subsidies assigned by the EU in the
amount of EUR 48 billion for the period 2006-2012 meant for the development of
the general economic infrastructure.
Extremely high dynamics of the construction market is observed in the
Turkish market (only in 2004, the construction volume increased by 1.5 times
compared to 2003).
We should admit that the growth of the construction volumes in Russia,
Ukraine and Belarus are high as well. The construction market of Romania
demonstrates low growth rates. The Baltic States undergo rapid development of the
construction market. There has been some recession in the growth of the
construction volumes in Czech Republic within the recent years, however, by the
year 2008, will have been growing much faster than the same market in the
countries of Western Europe. The two countries of Eastern Europe – Poland and
Hungary – will remain the leaders in terms of construction growth rates.
© www.mrcchemical.com
©
12
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
...extract from report…
3. PVC Market in Eastern Europe
3.2. Consumption of PVC in East-European Countries
Inside of Eastern Europe, the PVC markets develop in accordance with
different scenarios (see D. 3.2.1). We can mark out markets with relatively low
level of PVC consumption per capita but with high growth rates: Russia, Lithuania,
Ukraine, Belarus, Romania. And vice versa, there are markets with the high level
of the specific consumption but with the stable dynamics such as Hungary and
Poland. There are countries with balanced consumption and dynamics such Turkey
and Slovakia. As well as there countries with relatively low specific consumption
and low growth rates such as Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro.
D. 3.2.1. Consumption of PVC in EE, 2004, KT
PVC per capita, kg
Hungary
12
110
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Poland
10
376
Turkey
8
588
Czechia
EE
55
6
803
Slovakia
26
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Russia
4
16
Estonia
71
Romania
2
15
448
Ех-Yugoslavia
3
45
Belarus
Ukraine
23
61
0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Market growth, 99-04,%
PVC markets in
different EE countries
develop with different
dynamics
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
It is noteworthy that almost half of PVC consumed in Eastern Europe
belongs to the Polish market (D. 3.2.2). It is followed by the markets of Hungary
and Ukraine. In terms of their volumes the markets of Turkey and Russia together
surpass the market of Eastern Europe. In 2004 PVC consumption in Turkey
conforms to 75% of market in Eastern Europe, in Russia – to 60%.
D. 3.2.2. Consumption of PVC in EE, 2004
Slovenia 3%
Croatia 1%
Baltic States 2%
Czechia 7%
Belarus 3%
Macedonia 1%
Bulgaria 2%
Serbia and
Montenegro
4%
Hungary
13%
Ukraine
8%
Slovakia
3%
Romania
6%
Poland
46%
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
© www.mrcchemical.com
13
15
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
Differences in the consumption of PVC by the countries of Eastern Europe
will become more leveled (D. 3.2.3). The majority of markets are stabilized at the
level of 5%, and the annual growth at the level of … kg of PVC per capita. The
markets of Russia and Turkey will be separately corresponding already to 80% of
the EE market. The growth in Turkey will be stabilized at the level of 7-8%,
whereas in Russia the market will be demonstrating the annual growth at the level
of 11-12%.
D. 3.2.3. Consumption of PVC in EE, 2010, KT
PVC per capita, kg
Poland
15
472
Hungary
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
109
12
Turkey
894
44
Slovakia
9
Ех-Yugoslavia
Czechia
Lithuania
95
26
60
6
EE
Belarus
Russia
38
839
1 124
Bulgaria
3
31
Romania
Estonia
Ukraine
5
154
89
0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Market growth, 05-10,%
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
The Polish PVC market
is the most capacious
in Eastern Europe
In terms of PVC consumption Poland will remain an undisputable leader. The
Ukrainian market will be able to outstrip the Hungarian market in PVC consumption
volumes by 2010, and it will become the second regional market in Eastern Europe
(D. 3.2.4). The markets of Lithuania and Romania will be demonstrating quite high
growth rates.
D. 3.2.4. Consumption of PVC in EE, 2010
Belarus 2%
Sample page
Bulgaria 2%
Please see full data in our Report
Baltic States 2%
Czechia 6%
Ex- Yugoslavia
Ukraine
11%
14%
Hungary
11%
Slovakia
4%
Romania
6%
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
Poland
42%
The distinctive feature of some EE countries with the developed PVC
production (Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) is that the
classical formula for the definition of the actual PVC consumption “Consumption =
Production + Import - Export” is not quite correct for them. This is explained by
the fact that the domestic remainders of PVC of PVC producers in these countries
calculated as “Production minus Export” do not always correspond to the
consumption inside of the country…
© www.mrcchemical.com
15
14
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
… extract from report…
А) Profile Market
The present volume of profile production in Europe exceeds the level of …
mln. MT. During 2000-2004, this sector increased by 30%. The markets of two
countries – Germany and Great Britain – provide more than two thirds of the
European PVC profile consumption (D. 3.2.9)
D. 3.2.9. Production of profile in Europe, 2003
Poland
West-European profile
manufacturers
actively develop the
market of Eastern
Europe
7%
Russia
Other
3%
12%
Turkey
11%
Great Britain
20%
France
8%
Hungary
1%
Germany
38%
Source: MRC
There are more than 70 manufacturers in the industry, moreover, we can
single out top five companies (four companies are from Germany), which hold
more than a half of the total production volume:
¾
Profine: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia
¾
Veka: Germany, Great Britain, Poland, France, Spain, Russia
¾
Rehau: Germany, Great Britain, Poland, France, Russia
¾
Aluplast: Germany, Great Britain, Poland, Austria, Russia
¾
Deceuninck: Germany, Great Britain, Poland, Belgium, France, Spain, Turkey
… Already now, the markets of Poland and Turkey surpass in terms of their
absolute indexes the market of France. And in terms of PVC profile consumption
per 1000 homes the East-European countries by far ahead of the markets of
Western Europe (D. 3.2.11).
Poland is the
European leader in
terms of PVC
consumption per
1000 homes
D. 3.2.11. Consumption of PVC profile per 1000 homes, MT
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
16
12
8
4
0
France
Germany
Hungary
Slovakia
Austria
Estonia
Latvia
Slovenia
Belgium
Turkey
Ireland
Lithuania
UK
Czechia
Poland
Source: MRC
© www.mrcchemical.com
15
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
… extract from report…
3.6 The Balance of the VCM Market in Eastern Europe
Since 2002, the volume of VCM production has always been surpassing the
level of the PVC production. Today, the existing VCM production capacities are
concentrated in six countries of Eastern Europe as well (Table 3.6.1).
Table 3.6.1. VCM production capacities in the EE countries, MT
Country
2000
2001
Croatia
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Romania
Slovakia
Turkey
Ukraine
Czech Rep
Total EE
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
The workload of the
VCM production
capacities is by 10%
higher than that for
PVC
Today, the share of the leaders in the production of VCM (Ukraine, Poland
and Hungary) makes up 70% of the total volume of the VCM production capacities
in Eastern Europe …
The shortage of the VCM production capacities at BorsodChem, Anwil and
Oltchim is compensated by its surplus at Karpatneftechem in Kalush (LukoilNeftechem Group) …
… In case Kalush launches own PVC-S production in 2009 with the capacity
300 Kta, the balance of the PVC/VCM in Eastern Europe can be broken. The
shortage of the VCM production capacities may make up about … KTa by 2010 (D.
3.6.9).
D. 3.6.9. PVC/VCM production capacities in EE, KT
PVC
VCM
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
2000
1437
1500
1008
1437
1026
1397
1092
1237
1125 1252
2003
2004
1105
1342
1158
1442
1290
1442
1290
1602
1440
1725
1602
1725
1602
1000
500
0
2000
2001
2002
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: MRC
© www.mrcchemical.com
16
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
… extract from report…
4. PVC Market by Countries of Eastern Europe
4.1 Poland
The Polish PVC market has been growing with the average annual speed
6.5% within the recent six years. The overall PVC consumption will make up … KT
by 2010. In terms of this index, the Polish market is the leader in Eastern Europe
(D. 4.1.2.1).
D. 4.1.2.1. Consumption of PVC in Poland, KT
500
400
291
300
268
305
437
450
461
472
2007
2008
2009
2010
418
page
Please
see full data in our Report
328
399
376 Sample
200
100
0
2000
Poland is the biggest
East European PVC
net importer as well
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
… Supplies of imported PVC constitute 64% of its consumption; the export
makes up almost half of the manufactured PVC (Table 4.1.2.1).
Table 4.1.2.1. PVC market in Poland, MT
Index
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005*
Capacities
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Production
Import
Export
Consumption
Import into consumption
Export to consumption
* assessment
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
… According to our estimations, the Polish PVC-S market, during 20062010, will be developing mainly due to the growth of processing in the profile
manufacturing sector. The markets of pipes and cable will preserve their existing
volumes (D. 4.1.2.6).
D. 4.1.2.6. Poland. Consumpt ion of PVC-S by market s, KT
pipes
films / sheets
cable
profile
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: BorsodChem/ MRC
© www.mrcchemical.com
17
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
а) Profile Market
At present, PVC windows are the leaders in the Polish window market (D.
4.1.2.8).
D.4.1.2.8. Structure of window sales
in Poland, %
Other
15%
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
PVC
40%
Aluminum
15%
Wooden
30%
Source: MRC
The biggest European
players are leading in
Polish profile market
In 2004, the overall production of doors and windows in money terms made
up almost USD 2 billion. The export of doors and windows constituted EUR 280
mln. in 2004, 70% of them were windows and doors made of wood. Today, there
are about 90 enterprises in this sector with the overall number of employees more
than 120 thousand persons.
There are such biggest European manufacturers of PVC profile as Rehau,
Aluplast, Gealan, ThyssenKrupp. There are also large Polish companies: Roplasto,
Metalplast, Oknoplast, Profil PVC. (Table 4.1.2.4).
Table 4.1.2.4. Manufacturers of window profile in Poland, 2004, USD, mln.
Company
Rehau Sp. z. o.o.
Proceeds
Profit
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Margin
Aluplast Sp. z. o.o.
Oknoplast Sp. z. o.o.
Profil PVC Sp. z. o.o.
ThyssenKrupp Alpex Plastics Sp. z. o.o.
Gealan Polska Sp. z. o.o.
Source: Plastics Review
© www.mrcchemical.com
18
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
…extract from report…
4.2 Hungary
… Hungary is the biggest net exporter of PVC in Eastern Europe. The ratio of
export to the overall production volume constitutes 80%; and in absolute terms
the level of export exceeds the level of … KT (D.4.2.2.4).
D. 4.2.2.4. Hungary. PVC market components, KT
Production
Import
272
268
233
219 page
Sample
Please see full data in our Report
229
212
200
100
Export
275
267
264
300
216
44
49
58
59
63
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
0
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
Despite of the high level of the domestic PVC production, the Hungarian
market is supplied with more than … KT of imported PVC. Today, the share of
Hungary is the
biggest exporter of
PVC in Eastern
Europe
import in the total consumption exceeds the level of …% (Table 4.2.2.1).
Table 4.2.2.1. PVC market in Hungary, MT
Index
2000
2001
Capacities
2002
2003
2004
2005*
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Production
Import
Export
Consumption **
Import into consumption
Export to production
* assessement
** according to formula: production + import and export
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
… Within the recent five years the Hungarian profile production increased by
2.5 times. It is expected that this sector will be demonstrating positive dynamics
further on (D. 4.2.2.8).
D. 4.2.2.8. PVC prof ile product ion in Hungary, KT
30
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
20
10
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: BorsodChem
BorsodChem subdivision – BC-Ablakprofil – is one of the biggest players in
the Hunagarian market of profiles. In 2004, its sales level exceeded …KT; 37% of
them are supplied for export. The market share of profiles for the window system
Panorama
(BC-Ablakprofil brand) constitutes 40-45%. Panorama’s subdivision–
Ablakgyarto es Formalgaso – manufactured … thous. m. of PVC windows
(consumption of about … MT of profiles).
© www.mrcchemical.com
19
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
…extract from report…
4.4 The Czech Republic
4.4.4 The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets
The PVC production in Neratovice is a good example of equilibration of the
entire production chain. The overall chlorine production capacities at the enterprise
constitute 135 KTa (the plant was built in 1975 in compliance with the technology
of De Nora). The PVC production capacity is 132 KTa (Huels). EDC (capacity - 200
KTa) / VCM (capacity - 135 KTa) plant was built according to the technology of
Stauffer. The product mix of the enterprise includes both suspension PVC and its
compounds (the volume of compound production constituted about 5 KT in 2004).
Apart from Spolana, chlorine production capacities are also located at
Spolek. Their overall load made up 62% in 2004 (Table 4.4.4.1).
Table 4.4.4.1. Chlorine market in Czech Republic, MT
Index
2000
Capacities
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005*
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Production
Import
Export
Consumption
Source: Harriman Chemsult
* assessment
PVC production in
Czech Republic is
well balanced
PVC production is the main consumer of chlorine (Table 4.4.4.2).
Table 4.4.4.2. Consumption of chlorine in Czech Republic by industries, KT
Product
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005*
2007*
Vinyls
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
C2 Chloroethanes
Other organics
Non-organics
Other
Total
Source: Harriman Chemsult
* assessment
Consumption of caustic in Czech Republic constitutes … KT; import (mainly,
from Hungary) does not exceed … KT; and export in the amount of … KT mainly
belongs to Germany and Austria (Table 4.4.4.4).
Table 4.4.4.4. Caustic market in Czech Republic, MT
Index
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005*
Capacities
Production
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Import
Export
Consumption
* assessment
Source: Harriman Chemsult
In caustic supplies Spolana mainly concentrates on export; and Spolek is
more oriented towards the work in the domestic market. Production of paper is the
main consumer.
© www.mrcchemical.com
20
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
…extract from report…
4.10 Turkey
4.10.2 PVC Consumption
PVC market in Turkey develops very quickly. Within the recent six years it
has been growing in average by 14% annually. The overall PVC consumption
would run up to the level of … KT by the year 2010 (D. 4.10.2.1). According to the
forecast of Petkim, the PVC market in 2010 would constitute … KT.
D. 4.10.2.1. PVC consumpt ion in Turkey KT
1000
803
Sample page
753
700our Report
Please see full654
data in
800
600
853
894
588
447
400
351
424
480
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
There is PVC production capacities shortage in the country. The level of
PVC import makes up 75% in total consumption volume. The Turkish market will
remain the biggest net importer in the region right up to 2010. By this time, the
import of PVC may have constituted … KT. Turkey is the most important market
for Romanian Oltchim and Hungarian BorsodChem. Export of Romanian PVC to
Turkey made up 95 KT, Hungarian – 26 KT in 2004. (D. 4.10.2.5).
D.4.10.2.5. First five PVC importers into Turkey, КТ
Turkey will still be the
biggest net-importer
in the region
100
2002
2003
2004
50
0
Romania
Hungary
Germany
Poland
Italy
Source: MRC
There are sixty profile systems producers and almost five thousand plastic
windows producers in Turkey. The biggest profile producers are Pimas, Filpen,
Pakpen, Kompen, Erpen, Firatpen. By Pukad estimation, profile production
capacities made up … KT and its total production volume - … KT in 2005. At the
same time more than … KT of profiles were exported to other countries.
Three
sectors of PVC processing provided more than … KT of export deliveries in 2004.
As well as in other countries of Eastern Europe, PVC consumption growth
leader is profile sector. According to market experts, there are no objective
reasons for PVC consumption volumes decrease. It is expected the new capacities
input.
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21
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
… extract from report …
5. Influence of other regions on PVC market of Eastern Europe
5.1 Iran
… Today, the demand of the Iran PVC market meets mainly with domestic
production. The share of import in the general consumption structure constituted
about 12% in 2004 (Table 5.1.1).
Table 5.1.1 PVC market in Iran, КТ
Index
2001
Production
2002
2003
2004
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Import
Export
Consumption
The net export of PVC
from Iran will make
up 370 KT in 2010
Source: MRC
The leading PVC suppliers to Iranian market are two local companies: Iran
Petrochemical
Commerce
Company
(IPCC)
и
Abadan
Petrochemical
Plant
(D.5.1.3).
D.5.1.3. The share of PVC producers in Iran, 2004,
%
Sample page
Abadan
Please see full data in our
Report
22%
Сауд. Аравия
6%
IPCC
68%
Western Europe
3%
other
1%
Source: MRC
… In the nearest future, the country plans to put into operation new PVC
production capacities at the level of … KTa. The launch of the production Arvand
(330 KT) in 2009 will be the biggest project. As well, in 2009, Heghmatane is
planning to start production of emulsion PVC with the capacity 40 KTa (Table
5.1.2). The overall PVC production capacities in the country will make up more
than … KTa in 2009. At the same time, consumption of PVC will run up to … KT per
year in 2010 (Table 5.1.3).
Table 5.1.3 PVC market in Iran, 2004-2010, КТ
Index
2004
2005*
2006*
2007*
2008*
2009*
2010*
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Production
Import
Export
Consumption
* forecast
Source: MRC
According to the estimations of experts, Irani export opportunities will make
up about … KT per year already in 2009. One of the crucial issues is how Irani
companies are going to distribute their export supplies.
© www.mrcchemical.com
22
24
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
….extract from report…
5.2 China
… At present, China is the biggest world importer of petrochemical products.
In the opinion of Nexant, China manufactures only half of the overall volume of
consumed base polymers. About 42% of the total volumes of the world PE export
belong to China. The similar situation is with polypropylene, polystyrene and PVC.
Overall PVC consumption demonstrates extremely high growth rates. The
annual growth within the recent six years constituted about 10-11%. It is expected
that within the following decade the overall consumption of PVC would increase by
two times. By the year 2010, China will be consuming about …mln. MT of PVC (D.
5.2.2).
D. 5.2.2. PVC consumption in China, mln. MT
PVC production growth in
China will change its
deliveries structure in all
other region markets
15
Sample page
Please see full data in our
9,4
8,9 Report
10
4,8
5,3
5,7
6,3
2000
2001
2002
2003
7,0
7,8
8,3
2005
2006
9,7
10,1
2009
2010
5
0
2004
2007
2008
Source: MRC
It is expected great changes in the structure of PVC deliveries to Chinese
market. PVC import will decrease more than in five times, at the same time its
domestic production volume will increase in 1.9 times up to 2010.It is declared
more than thirty projects in PVC, VCM, EDC capacities expansion up to 2006.
...Because of differences in opinions about China between West-European
analytics, we decided to use Chinese company marketing information. According to
Sinochem today PVC consumption makes up about 24% in profile market and 21%
in pipes market. Because of fast growth of domestic PVC production, China may
soon become independent player in the world export market. The influence of
Chinese exporters during price differences conservation in internal and external
markets will be especially great. Chinese PVC today has already appeared in the
markets of Turkey and Russia.
South Korea, Taiwan and Japan will be the main victims of Chinese PVC
Chinese PVC has
already appeared
in the markets of
Turkey and Russia
import structure changes. During the biggest PVC import into China, the share of
these three countries made up 64% of total import deliveries. PVC export from
China made up … KT in 1Q 2006: about ...КТ were delivered to Turkey, ... КТ – to
India, ... КТ – to Korea, ... КТ – to Egypt and … KT – to Russia.
Analysts of Sinochem expect that Turkey and South America will become
the most attractive areas for export of Chinese PVC by the year 2010. With the
growth of the Chinese export, we may only await where they are going to direct
PVC from Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan.
© www.mrcchemical.com
23
24
PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006
Appendix
© www.mrcchemical.com
24
PVC in Eastern Europe - 2006
estimation
forecast
Table A-3. GDP per capita, USD (in current prices)
Country
2 000
2 001
2 002
2 003
2 004
2 005
2 006
2 007
2 008
2 009
2 010
Belarus’
Bulgaria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Hungary
Latvia
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Lithuania
Macedonia
Poland
Russia
Romania
Serbia and Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
Turkey
Ukraine
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Total EE*
* Here and further not including Russia and Turkey
Source: World Bank
25
© www.mrcchemical.com
PVC in Eastern Europe - 2006
Table A-5. PVC resin consumption, MT
Country
2 000
2 001
2 002
2 003
2 004
2 005
2 006
2 007
2 008
2 009
2 010
Belarus’
Bulgaria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Macedonia
Poland
Russia
Romania
Serbia and Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
Turkey
Ukraine
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Total EE
Source: MRC/Harriman Chemsult
26
© www.mrcchemical.com
PVC in Eastern Europe - 2006
Table A-10. PVC production, MT
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Romania
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Slovakia
Turkey
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Total EE
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
Table A-13. VCM capacities, MT
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Romania
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Slovakia
Turkey
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Total EE
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
27
© www.mrcchemical.com
PVC in Eastern Europe - 2006
Table A-14. Chlorine consumption, MT
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Belarus’
Bulgaria
Serbia and Montenegro
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Romania
Slovakia
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Estonia
Russia
Turkey
Total EE
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
28
© www.mrcchemical.com
PVC in Eastern Europe - 2006
Table A-18. Caustic consumption, MT
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Belarus’
Bulgaria
Serbia and Montenegro
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Sample page
Please see full data in our Report
Russia
Romania
Slovakia
Turkey
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Estonia
Total EE
Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult
29
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