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Through Improved
Prediction and
Impact Modelling
Contributors
Programme Background
 Storms have had an increasing social and economic
impact over recent years
 Impacts caused by adverse weather are
disproportionately influenced by extremes
 Climate change is likely to increase costs associated
with storm impacts
 NERC has allocated £4.9m from 2009-2014 to
address research gaps, in particular, prediction of
mid-latitude storms and their impacts
Programme Background
 The aim is to improve forecasting of storms and their
impacts on catchments and coasts
 In the short-term
- 0-48 hours through numerical weather prediction (NWP)
 And in the long-term
- over decades and with evolving climate change through improved
climate prediction
 On both timescales there is a need to improve
forecasting of impacts
Programme Structure
 Given the high degree of influence of storms on other
natural hazards there is a requirement for improved
linkage with impact models
- To better inform policy
- To enable measures that minimise storm associated risks
 This requires information to flow between numerical
weather prediction, climate models and impact models
 The programme has therefore been structured into three
interconnecting deliverables
Deliverable 1
 Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
- increased understanding of and capability to predict mesoscale
structures in extra-tropical cyclones.
This project is being undertaken by a
consortium called DIAMET - DIAbatic
influences on MEsoscale structures in
extratropical sTorms
DIAMET - outline
 A ‘field campaign’ using NERC aircraft to investigate
mesoscale structures in storms approaching the UK, with
high-resolution modelling of these events
 Use the results of the field campaign to constrain
simulations in the Met Office’s Unified model
 Improve understanding in terms of the fundamental
predictability of mesoscale structures
Deliverable 2
 Climate Science
- improved understanding of how climate change and natural
variability will affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical
cyclones
This project is being undertaken by a
consortium called TEMPEST - Testing and
Evaluating Model Predictions of European
Storms
TEMPEST -outline
 Assessing predicted change in extra-tropical cyclones to
inform the next IPCC assessment report
 Understand which processes are leading to the large
spread of climate model predictions for European extratropical cyclones
 Detailed investigation extra-tropical cyclones response to
climate change
Deliverable 3
 Impacts
- improved ability to use numerical weather prediction and climate
model output for storms impact modelling over a short and long
term
This project is being undertaken by a
consortium called DEMON - Developing
enhanced impact models for integration with
next generation NWP and climate outputs
DEMON - outline
 A better understanding of the errors and uncertainties in
weather forecast and climate model rainfalls
 The development of methods to use satellite and
airborne data on floods to improve flood forecasts
 Methods to predict water extents, depths and velocities
during floods for whole urban areas down to the
resolution of individual buildings
Programme Management
 Programme Executive Board – joint with CWC
 Programme Advisory Board:
- Prof. Denis Peach (Chair), Dr Sean Longfield
Dr David Burridge, Prof. Ian Townend
 Programme/Science Management Team:
- Dr Helen Beadman, Dr Michal Filtness (NERC)
- Graham Leeks, Dr Rob Ward,
Dr Daren Gooddy, Dr Lucy Ball (CEH/BGS)
Programme Timetable
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Proposal Calls
Proposal assessment
Project/Consortium awards
Annual Programme meeting
Website Development
Stakeholder engagement meetings
Integration Workshops
2014
Q1
Deliverable/Outcomes
 Development of new/improved models and methodologies
 Collection of new data
 High-profile publications
 Guidance given to the climate impacts assessment community and
policymakers regarding the trustworthiness of climate predictions
 Developing an integrated research community