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ABND in the Philippines:
Sources of financial data and making projections
Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)
The Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP) is a cost-estimation tool developed by the ILO on the
basis of an older UNICEF & ILO tool. It has been used to compute the cost of implementing the
recommendations of the ABND exercise. The RAP uses data such as population, labour force
estimates, economic indicators such as GDP growth, labour productivity, inflation, minimum and
average wages, poverty rates, government revenues and expenditures, etc. The outcomes of the
RAP are the estimated cost of implementing recommendations till 2020, and their impact on the
national budget.
ILO prepared an initial draft of the RAP model, by collecting data from available national and
international sources, and making projections under reasonable assumptions where data was
not available. In most cases, historical data until 2012 or 2013 was available from national
sources. The projections from then until 2020 were either taken from international sources or
made by ILO. These were discussed and finalized in a meeting with the Philippine Statistics
Authority (PSA).
There are four inputs worksheets namely POP, EAP, ECO, GGO, which are colour coded blue.
There are four Benefits worksheets, one each for social insurance, social welfare, social safety
nets, and labour market interventions. These worksheets are used to compute the cost of the
scenarios and are colour coded green. The Summary worksheet provides a snapshot of the cost
of all the scenarios and is colour coded red.
The sources of data and projections for the input worksheets are explained below.
Main points of interest

In the meeting with PSA, it was highlighted that calculations should be based on data
collected from national government agencies rather than international organizations, as
far as possible. When this is not possible, simple projections or extrapolations based on
historical data can be done. Projections from international sources can be used when
they are based on historical data from national sources.
POP
Population

Total population and breakdown by gender and single age for 2005-20 are to be
obtained from PSA.
Other demographic data and vulnerable groups




Number of households in 2006, 2009 and 2012 was obtained from the Family Income
and Expenditure Survey (FIES). Based on this, the average household size was computed.
It was then assumed to remain constant from 2013 to 2020 at its 2012 level.
The number of persons with disabilities (PWDs) was obtained from Census 2010. The
proportion of PWDs to total population has been assumed to remain constant until 2020.
The number of disaster victims has not been projected as beneficiaries of social safety
nets would depend on the occurrence of disasters and financial allocations.
Data on public school enrolment from 2008 to 2012 was obtained from the Department
of Education Factsheet on Basic Education Statistics. For ease of calculation, school year
2008-09 has been assumed as commercial year 2008 in the RAP, and so on. Public school
enrolment was projected until 2020 based on the historical trend, i.e. it is assumed to
increase at a rate of around 2.7%. This is higher than the general child population growth
rate of around 0.6%, due to efforts to increase school enrolment, especially in rural areas.
Public school enrolment
21,500
21,000
y = 18306e0.0266x
R² = 0.9773
20,500
20,000
Public school
enrolment
19,500
19,000
Expon.
(Public
school
enrolment)
18,500
18,000
17,500
1

2
3
4
5
Most at-risk population for HIV was obtained from the Philippine Estimates of the Most
At-Risk Population and People Living with HIV, done by the Philippine National AIDS
Council in 2011. The proportion of most at-risk population to total population has been
assumed to remain constant until 2020.
Social protection beneficiaries and social insurance members

The number of Technical-Vocational Education and Training (TVET) graduates from 2005
to 2011 was obtained from the Philippine TVET Statistics available on the Technical
Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) website. The average proportion of
TVET graduates to population over 15 years of age during 2005-11 was calculated. This


proportion has been assumed to remain constant from 2012 to 2020, and in this way the
number of TVET graduates until 2020 has been projected.
Registered members of SSS include both employers and workers. Workers include wage
and salaried workers, self-employed and Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) and their
dependants. These numbers from 2007 to 2013 were obtained from the SSS annual
reports, and projected until 2020. The number of employers registered with SSS is
projected according to its average proportion to employed persons during 2007-13. The
number of workers registered with SSS is projected according to its average proportion
to the population during 2007-13.
Data on registered members of GSIS for 2011 and 2012 was obtained from the GSIS
financial statements. In 2012, GSIS membership surged due to the government's
ongoing rationalization program. The proportion of GSIS members to the number of
formal sector workers has been assumed to remain constant from 2013 to 2020, at its
2012 proportion.
EAP


Economically active population or labour force in the Philippines from 2005 to 2012 has
been obtained from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The projections from 2013 to 2020
were obtained from the ILOSTAT database. ILOSTAT uses LFS data to make its
projections. The data has been segregated by gender and age groups: youth (15-24),
prime working age (25-54), 55-64, and 65+.
The share of agriculture workers among total employed persons from 2008 to 2013 was
obtained from the LFS. Projections from 2014 to 2020 were made based on the historical
trend. The percentage was used to calculate the total number of agriculture workers.
ECO

The Macroeconomic worksheet contains economic indicators for the country.
Inflation

Data on Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2005 to 2012 was obtained from the National
Statistics Office (NSO), accessed from the Bureau of Labor and Employment Statistics
(BLES) website. Projections from 2013 to 2019 were obtained from the International
Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (IMF WEO). IMF WEO uses NSO historical data
to make its projections. Inflation was calculated as the percentage change in CPI. For
2020, the average inflation value during 2016-19 was taken.
Labour productivity

Labour productivity was calculated as GDP at constant prices divided by employment.
Employment, unemployment and underemployment



The number of employed and unemployed persons and breakdown by gender was
calculated using unemployment rate and total labour force.
The unemployment rate from 2005 to 2012 was obtained from the LFS. The data has
been segregated by gender and major age groups, i.e. 15-24, 25-54, 55+. Projections
from 2013 to 2019 were obtained from the IMF WEO, which uses LFS data to make its
projections. For 2020, the unemployment rate was calculated based on its compounded
average growth rate from 2015 to 2019.
The underemployment rate from 2008 to 2013 was obtained from the Annual Labor and
Employment Estimates, NSO. It varies between 19.1% and 20.0%. The underemployment
rate from 2014 to 2020 was projected as the average rate between 2008 and 2013.
Informal sector

The number and percentage of informal sector workers from 2005 to 2012 was obtained
from the LFS, accessed from the BLES website. The data has been segregated by gender.
Informal sector workers as a percentage of total employed persons, declines from 2005
to 2012. Projections from 2013 to 2020 were made based on the historical trend, and
also show a declining percentage of informal sector workers.
Informal sector
48.0%
46.0%
y = -0.024ln(x) + 0.4575
R² = 0.7902
44.0%
42.0%
Informal sector
40.0%
Log. (Informal
sector)
38.0%
36.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Poverty

The national poverty threshold and national poverty rate in 2006, 2009 and 2012 were
obtained from the FIES. The national poverty threshold from 2013 to 2020 was projected
to increase in proportion to inflation. The national poverty rate from 2013 to 2020 was
projected on the basis of its historical trend and shows a declining rate, similar to the
historical data.
National poverty rate
27.0%
26.5%
National
poverty rate
26.0%
y = 0.2673x-0.024
R² = 0.7143
25.5%
25.0%
Power
(National
poverty rate)
24.5%
24.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Gross domestic product (GDP)


GDP at constant 2000 and current prices, GDP growth rate, GDP deflator (index) and
change from 2005 to 2012 were obtained from the National Statistical Coordination
Board (NSCB), accessed from the Philippine Statistical Yearbook 2013. The National
Accounts of the Philippines was accessed for 2013 data. Projections from 2014 to 2019
were taken from IMF WEO. IMF WEO uses NSCB historical data to make its projections.
The GDP growth rate in 2020 was calculated as the constant average value of the
previous four years.
Gross national income (GNI) at current prices from 2005 to 2012 was obtained from
NSCB, accessed from the Philippine Statistical Yearbook 2013. The National Accounts of
the Philippines was accessed for 2013 data.
Household income and expenditure, and wages


The total household income and expenditure in 2006, 2009 and 2012 were obtained
from the FIES.
The average daily basic pay of wage and salaried workers from 2009 to 2013 was
obtained from the LFS, accessed from the BLES website. It increases at an average rate of
around 4.7%. It is projected to increase based on the historical trend and shows an
increase of 4.4% to 4.6%.
Average daily basic pay of wage and salaried
workers (PHP)
400
350
300
250
200
y = 0.325x2 + 12.465x + 278.57
R² = 0.9973
Average daily basic
pay of wage and
salaried workers
(PHP)
Poly. (Average daily
basic pay of wage
and salaried
workers (PHP))
150
100
50
0
1

2
3
4
5
In the Philippines, the minimum daily wage is different across regions. It is also different
for non-agriculture, plantation and non-plantation based jobs. For the purpose of the
RAP, the lowest and highest regional wage as of August 2014 are considered. The actual
cost of any scenario will then lie between these two. The minimum wage is projected to
increase following the same trend as the average daily basic pay.
GGO (SQ)

The General Government Operations (Status Quo) worksheet includes the major
components of the central government revenues and expenditures, as well as sources of
budget deficit financing from domestic and foreign sources. It also contains breakdown
of the social insurance (SSS and GSIS) revenues.
State revenues and expenditures

The State revenues and expenditures from 2007 to 2012 were obtained from the Bureau
of Treasury, accessed from the NSCB's Philippine Statistical Yearbook 2013. The average
proportion of State revenues and expenditures to current price GDP between 2007 and
2012 was calculated. This average proportion was then used to project State revenues
and expenditures from 2013 until 2020.
Total financing

Total domestic and foreign financing from 2007 to 2012 was obtained from the Bureau
of Treasury, accessed from NSCB's Philippine Statistical Yearbook 2013. Projections from
2013 to 2020 can be done if required, by calculating the proportion of total financing to
GDP, and then increasing or decreasing this proportion year-on-year, as decided by the
country.
Social insurance revenues



Social insurance revenues from 2005 to 2012, i.e. SSS and GSIS contributions, were
obtained from NSCB's Philippine Statistical Yearbook 2013. They can be projected if
required, in proportion to wage increases and insured persons.
Investment income for SSS and GSIS between 2008 and 2012 was obtained from the
respective annual reports. Investment income can be projected if required, on the basis
of the investment base and assumed return on investment.
Other sources of SSS and GSIS revenues from 2008 to 2012 were obtained from NSCB's
Philippine Statistical Yearbook 2013.