Download Plant Phenology and Climate Change

Project BudBurstSM
Plant Phenology and Climate Change
Part I – Background on Phenology:
1. Begin by reading the Project BudBurstSM website on plant phenology and climate change
(neoninc.org/budburst/phenology_climatechange.php) Answer the following questions as
you read this page:
a. What will happen to the weather we experience during winter and summer as
climate change progresses?
b. The global temperature is expected to rise 3.2 to 7.20 F during the 21st century.
Yet, when you really think about it, this increase may not seem to be that big of a
temperature difference. Why will 7.20 or even 3.20 F be such an enormous
problem even though the number doesn’t seem all that big?
c. Give a definition of phenophases in your own words:
d. What factors affect phenophases?
e. In the space below, explain how climate change could have an impact of
phenophases. Be as detailed as you can be in your explanation.
Part II – Using Phenology Data:
2. The following is a table from the Project BudBurstSM 2007-2011 phenology data Summary Report.
Use the table to answer the following questions:
©National Ecological Observatory Network
a. Between 2008 and 2010, what happened to the date on which the first Forsythia plant blooms
opened in Chicago, IL?
b. Considering Chicago for just this specific time period, develop a hypothesis as to why the
dates for first bloom changed the way they did.
c. Between 2008 and 2010, the Mertensia virginica plants appeared to bloom in a similar pattern
in Stillwater, MN (Go Ponies!) as seen in the Forsythia plants in Chicago. What happened to
this pattern in Mertensia virginica 2011?
Part III – Weather, Climate, and Phenology Data:
3. The following three images show January through March Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) for
the 2011 winter. The PDSI attempts to
measure the duration and intensity of the
long-term drought-inducing circulation
patterns. Long-term drought is cumulative, so
the intensity of drought during the current
month is dependent on the current weather
patterns plus the cumulative patterns of
previous months.
a. Using these images and the
phenology data summary report from
the previous page, formulate a
hypothesis as to why Stillwater, MN
saw a reversal in phenophase
patterns in 2011.
b. Floyd Swink and Gerould Wilhelm
recorded first flowering dates of
common plants in Chicago from 1955 to
1994 while botanizing the region to
collect information for their book,
Plants of the Chicago Region.
Comparing this information to
ProjectBudBurst℠ data (2007-2011
avg.) reveals that Forsythia plants
bloomed 24 days earlier since the
Swink/Wilhelm average. Yet Forsythia
were seen to bloom 9 days later in 2011
than in 2010 and 7 days later than in
2007. Thinking about what you know
about climate and phenology data,
develop a hypothesis regarding annual
bloom dates that fits with the data that
you have been given in this activity.