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EEA
02 March 2016
Climate‐ADAPT „Research projects page submissions ‐ Ongoing projects
a) Template Project descriptions
Name of projects:
Impacts and risks from high‐end scenarios: Strategies for innovative solutions (IMPRESSIONS)
Project logo:
The Challenge:
There is widespread acceptance that the climate is changing. Although the UNFCCC Conference of
the Parties (COP) meeting in Paris in December 2015 agreed to hold the increase in the global
average temperature to well below 2°C above pre‐industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5°C, projections based on current emission trends point to much more
substantial warming, with possible increases of 4oC or more in the long‐term unless there is much
more radical action to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the increasing plausibility of these
high‐end scenarios, there are few studies that assess their potential impacts, the ability of
adaptation options to reduce vulnerabilities, and the potential synergies and trade‐offs between
adaptation and mitigation. Thus, it is vital that decision‐makers have access to reliable scientific
information on these uncertain, but potentially high‐risk, scenarios of the future to inform
adaptation planning.
Project objectives:
The overall objective of IMPRESSIONS is to advance understanding of the consequences of high‐end
climate change through the development of an integrated set of multi‐scale, high‐end climate and
socio‐economic scenarios and their application to improved models for analysing impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation. Adaptation and mitigation pathways that address these impacts and
vulnerabilities are being generated with stakeholders. The pathways are being analysed to assess the
need for transformative strategies that take account of potential synergies and trade‐offs between
adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. We are also evaluating how the new
knowledge gained from the scenarios, impact modelling and pathways can be embedded within
decision‐making processes, so that effective climate governance plans are conceived that deal with
adaptation and mitigation in a synergistic way.
Methodology:
The main approach is to develop new scenarios and models of the impacts of high levels of climate
change, and apply these to five case studies at different geographical scales: Europe; regional or
local (Scotland, Iberia and Hungary); and an EU External case study that looks at interactions
between Europe, central Asia, Russia and China. Different adaptation and mitigation options will
then be assessed for each case study, in order to help decision‐makers identify strategies that are
robust for a range of possible futures.
This is being achieved through the following steps:
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Establish decision‐maker needs. In‐depth interviews and stakeholder workshops to
understand what tools and knowledge decision‐makers need in order to make robust and
effective decisions on adaptation and mitigation in the face of highly uncertain scientific
information.
Develop integrated climate and socio‐economic scenarios. Work closely with stakeholders
in the five case studies to create a set of integrated high‐end climate and socio‐economic
scenarios that include potential tipping points.
Develop robust methods and models to assess climate change impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation options. Integrate a wide range of existing and new spatial models of impacts
and adaptation into a single assessment framework, to analyse the complex interactions,
synergies and trade‐offs between different sectors such as agriculture, forestry, urban
development and tourism as they compete for land, water and energy, and the resulting
impacts on health and biodiversity.
Develop adaptation and mitigation pathways. Work with stakeholders in each case study to
develop adaptation and mitigation pathways which will be tested with the models.
Analyse risks, opportunities, costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation. Evaluate the
adaptation and mitigation pathways developed by stakeholders, studying the effectiveness
over time of different pathways in the face of high‐end climate and socio‐economic
scenarios, which could include non‐linear changes and tipping points. Develop
recommendations on robust new policy strategies and pathways, including the risks and
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opportunities of different policy options, in order to provide integrated and potentially
transformative solutions that help society plan for the long‐term in the context of high levels
of climate change.
Knowledge exchange and dissemination. Communicate the results to a broad community of
stakeholders to maximise their active participation in the research and enhance current
approaches to climate change policies and actions.
Expected results:
The main outcomes from IMPRESSIONS will be:
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A more thorough understanding of decision‐makers’ needs for increasing the robustness of
decisions in response to high‐end climate change scenarios.
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A set of integrated high‐end climate and more extreme socio‐economic scenarios covering
global, European and regional/local scales.
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Improved quantification and mapping of cross‐sectoral impacts, risks and vulnerabilities
associated with high‐end scenarios along with consideration of their uncertainties.
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Advances in how adaptation is modelled by incorporating a more comprehensive
representation of associated constraints, triggers, time lags and consequences.
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New models which simulate adaptation as a process by representing the behaviour of
decision‐makers, firms and institutions as learning and interacting agents.
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Assessment of the robustness of current policies and the need for transformative strategies
to deal with high‐end scenarios.
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A set of sustainable development transition pathways that offer options for harmonising
adaptation and mitigation strategies to enable society to adapt effectively to potential
impacts under high‐end scenarios and across multiple scales.
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A knowledge network and information hub to support mutual learning and enhance
decision‐makers’ capacity to take up the project’s recommendations.
All deliverables and papers will be made available on the IMPRESSIONS website (www.impressions‐
project.eu) when finalised.
Project partners:
List the institutions involved in the project and add the country name.
1.
NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UK)
2.
University of Lisbon (Portugal)
3.
Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden)
4.
Wageningen University (Netherlands)
5.
Danish Meteorological Institute (Denmark)
6.
Finnish Environment Institute (Finland)
7.
University of Edinburgh (UK)
8.
Dutch Research Institute for Transitions (Netherlands)
9.
Cranfield University (UK)
10. Jill Jäger (Austria)
11. Scuola Superiore di Studi universitari e di perfezionamento Sant'Anna (Italy)
12. Prospex (Belgium)
13. Pensoft Publishers (Bulgaria)
14. TIAMASG (Romania)
15. University of Kassel (Germany)
16. Joan David Tabara Villalba (Spain)
17. Central European University (Hungary)
18. University of Paris 1 (France)
19. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (UK)
20. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zurich (Switzerland)
21. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (Germany)
22. Iodine (Belgium)
23. University of Milano‐Bicocca (Italy)
24. University of Salzburg (Austria)
25. University of Oxford (UK)
b) Template Facts:
Funding instrument: Collaborative project
Start Date: 1 November 2013
End date: 31 October 2018
Duration: 5 years
Project coordinator: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, UK (note that we are in the middle of a
contract amendment to move the coordination from University of Oxford to Centre for Ecology &
Hydrology)
Project website: www.impressions‐project.eu
Contact: Dr. Paula Harrison, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library
Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP; Email: [email protected]
c) Further advice and contact:
Examples of project sheets can be found at: http://climate‐adapt.eea.europa.eu/research‐projects
In case of questions please contact Andreia Gonçalves Sousa ([email protected])