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Forests as mitigation tools in Hungary
András HUSZÁR
[email protected]
Climate Policy Desk Officer
Department for Climate Policy
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Forests in Hungary
3. The Role of Forests in Carbon Sink in the Future
4. Climate Change and Forests
5. Carbon Balance Change
6. Summary
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Scientific background and source
Dr. Zoltán Somogyi
Dr. Borbála Gálos
Forest Research Institute
Budapest, Hungary
[email protected]
Institute of Environmental and Earth
Sciences, University of West Hungary
[email protected]
• National Food Chain Safety Office (NFCSO), Hungarian Forest Management:
https://www.nebih.gov.hu/en/specialities/erdeszet
• Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO): https://www.ksh.hu/environment
• National Inventory Report for 1985-2013, Hungary (2015)
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Introduction
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Introduction
Source: WWF Forest & Climate Programme
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Forests in Hungary
Source: NFCSO, 2015
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Forests in Hungary
Source: NCSO, 2015
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Forests in Hungary
Source: HCSO, 2015
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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The Role of Forests in Carbon Sink in the Past
The sources of emissions and removals in the L-FL category
Source: National Inventory Report for 1985-2013, Hungary (HMS 2015)
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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A Tool to Estimate the Role of Forest Carbon Sink
CASMOFOR: CArbon Sequestration MOdel for FORestations - an accounting model
to assess the removals and emissions of carbon by afforestations
Source: http://www.scientia.hu/casmofor/indexE.php
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Forest carbon balance under „normal” climate
Baseline scenario (i.e. assuming no climate change) for beech forests in Zala country, Hungary
Source: Somogyi Z. 2014
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Climate Change in Hungary
wetter
Projected climate tendencies for Hungary
dryer
warmer
IPCC emission scenario: A1B
Error bars: „likely range” of the
projected changes
Source: Gálos, B. et al. 2015
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Forests might disappear due to projected climate
change
A
B
Modeled future tree species distribution maps
for 2036–2065 (A) and 2071–2100 (B), beech – blue,
sessile oak – green, Turkey oak – red, no forest – white
Source: Móricz N. et al. 2013
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Forest may become huge sources of carbon
„Climate change” scenario for beech forests in Zala country, Hungary
Source: Somogyi Z. 2014
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Forest carbon balance change
For the area where sessile oak replaces beech in Zala country, Hungary
Source: Somogyi Z. 2014
Tuczno, Poland
26-29 April
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Climate Change and Forests (REMO)
Effects of an assumed amunt of afforestation on the summer
precipitation in 3 Hungarian sub-regions
Climate change due to GHG concentration increase 2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990
Climate change due to potential afforestation 2071-2100 (carbon cycle not considered!)
Climate change due to GHG concentration increase & afforestation 2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990
Source: Gálos, B. et al. 2011
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Summary
• The climatic effects of forest cover change can affect the
projected climate change due to GHG concentration increase
• Forests can have large potential to climate change mitigation!
Practical application:

Assessment of the climatic benefit of forests and their role in
adapting to climate change + regional differences

Our models provide basic information for adaptation and
mitigation strategies
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