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G5AIAI Introduction to Artificial Intelligence Graham Kendall History G5AIAI History Predictions • “Within 10 years a computer will be a chess champion” – Herbert Simon, 1958 • Conversion from Russian to English, when presented with – “The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak” produced – “The vodka is good but the meat is rotten” • National Research Council, 1957 G5AIAI History Why do we need AI anyway? G5AIAI History The Travelling Salesman Problem • A salesperson has to visit a number of cities • (S)He can start at any city and must finish at that same city • The salesperson must visit each city only once • The number of possible routes is (n!)/2 G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion A 10 city TSP has 181,000 possible solutions A 20 city TSP has 10,000,000,000,000,000 possible solutions A 50 City TSP has 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 possible solutions There are 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 litres of water on the planet Mchalewicz, Z, Evolutionary Algorithms for Constrained Optimization Problems, CEC 2000 (Tutorial) G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi • The original problem was stated that a group of tibetan monks had to move 64 gold rings which were placed on diamond pegs. • When they finished this task the world would end. • Assume they could move one ring every second (or more realistically every five seconds). • How long till the end of the world? G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Towers of Hanoi • > 500,000 years!!!!! Or 3 Trillion years • Using a computer we could do many more moves than one second so go and try implementing the 64 rings towers of hanoi problem. • If you are still alive at the end, try 1,000 rings!!!! G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion - Optimization • • • • Optimize f(x1, x2,…, x100) where f is complex and xi is 0 or 1 The size of the search space is 2100 1030 An exhaustive search is not an option – At 1000 evaluations per second – Start the algorithm at the time the universe was created – As of now we would have considered 1% of all possible solutions G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion 1E+280 1E+266 1E+252 1E+238 1E+224 1E+210 1E+196 1E+182 1E+168 1E+154 1E+140 1E+126 1E+112 1E+98 1E+84 1E+70 1E+56 1E+42 1E+28 1E+14 1 5N N^3 N^5 N^10 1.2^N 2^N N^N 2 4 8 16 Microseconds in a Day 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 Microseconds since Big Bang G5AIAI History Combinatorial Explosion Running on a computer capable of 1 million instructions/second N2 N5 10 1/10,000 second 20 1/2500 second 50 1/400 second 100 1/100 second 200 1/25 second 1/10 second 3.2 seconds 5.2 minutes 2.8 hours 3.7 days > 400 trillion centuries 45 digit no. of centuries 2N 1/1000 second 1 second 35.7 years NN 2.8 hours 3.3 trillion years 70 digit no. of centuries 185 digit no. of centuries Ref : Harel, D. 2000. Computer Ltd. : What they really can’t do, Oxford University Press 445 digit no. of centuries G5AIAI History Alan Turing • Founder of computer science, mathematician, philosopher and code breaker G5AIAI History Alan Turing 1939-40 the Bombe, machine for Enigma •• 1912 (23 Devises June): Birth, Paddington, London decryption • 1931-34: Undergraduate at King's College, • Cambridge 1947-48: Papers on programming, neural nets, and University prospects for artificial intelligence • 1935: Elected fellow of King's College, Cambridge • 1948: Manchester University • 1936: The Turing machine: On Computable • Numbers... 1950: Philosophical Submittedpaper on machine intelligence: the Turing Test • 1936-38: At Princeton University. Ph.D. Papers in • logic, 1954 (7 June):number Death by cyanide poisoning, algebra, theory Wilmslow, Cheshire • 1938-39: Return to Cambridge. Introduced to German Enigma cipher problem G5AIAI History The Turing Test • Proposed by Alan Turing in 1950 • Suggested as a way of saying when we could consider computers to be intelligent • You need to read and understand The Turing Test G5AIAI History The Chinese Room • If the Turing Test was passed Turing would conclude that the machine was intelligent • In 1980 John Searle devised a thought experiment which he called the Chinese Room (Searle, 1980) – Searle, J.R. 1980. Minds, brains and programs. Behavioural and Brain Sciences, 3: 417-457, 1980 G5AIAI History The Chinese Room • You need to read and understand the Chinese Room • You need to be able to have an opinion about The Turing Test and Chinese Room G5AIAI History Landmarks in AI Physical Symbol System Hypothesis ELIZA (A Therapist) MYCIN (First Expert System) Means End Analysis (Exploits Forward and Backwards Chaining) G5AIAI History Summary Understand what is meant by combinatorial explosion (esp. wrt TSP). The Turing Test (Read the paper) The Chinese Room (Read the paper) Be able to recognise the relationship between The Turing Test and The Chinese Room Landmarks in AI History Read Chapter 1 of AIMA G5AIAI History