Download Rapid estimates: a dashboard for short-term economic developments Kees Zeelenberg

Rapid estimates: a
dashboard for short-term
economic developments
Kees Zeelenberg
(Director of Methodology & Quality,
Statistics Netherlands)
Contents
• Dashboard
• Tracer
• Indicator
• Questions for discussion
Business cycle Dashboard
1
Business cycle Dashboard (1)
• Set of indicators
• Some leading, some coincident, some
lagging
• Cyclical component of the indicators;
shown as standardized deviation from
trend
• Complete and coherent analysis of the
cyclical aspects of the economy
Business cycle Dashboard
2
Business cycle Dashboard (2)
• Sentiment indicators
• Economic indicators
• Labour market indicators
Business cycle Dashboard
3
Business cycle dashboard
Business cycle Dashboard
4
Downswing, recession, recovery, boom
Business cycle Dashboard
5
Business cycle Dashboard (3)
• Sentiment indicators :
• Producer confidence
• Orders received
• Consumer confidence
• Large purchases
Business cycle Dashboard
6
Business cycle Dashboard (4)
• Economic indicators :
• GDP
• Fixed capital formation
• Manufacturing output
• Consumption
• Exports
• Capital market interest rate
Business cycle Dashboard
7
Business cycle Dashboard (5)
• Labour market indicators :
• Jobs
• Temp jobs
• Unemployment
• Vacancies
• Bankruptcies
Business cycle Dashboard
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Business cycle Dashboard
Business cycle Dashboard
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Business cycle Tracer
• Summary of Business cycle Dashboard
• Moving pictures
• Examples:
• Statistics Netherlands
• Eurostat
• OECD
• ABS (Australia)
• Korea
Business cycle Dashboard
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Business cycle tracer (“clock”)
Business cycle Dashboard
11
BCT Indicator:
Summary of Dashboard and Tracer
(“pointer of the business cycle clock”)
Business cycle Dashboard
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Questions for discussion
1. Is it important to have a dashboard (set of
indicators) compared with a single indicator?
2. Does the dashboard help to understand and
analyze the developments in the economy?
3. Is one synthetic indicator (BCT-indicator)
relevant and useful?
4. Does it make sense to combine several types of
indicators (sentiment, economic, labour)?
5. Is the presentation of dashboard, tracer and
indicator adequate?
6. Is there any user feedback?
Business cycle Dashboard
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