Download Food security in the new context: Vietnam case study

Food security in the new context: Vietnam case study
1. Current situation of food security in Vietnam
Food in general and rice in particular is vital for almost all countries in the world and Vietnam is
not an exception because rice is the main staple food. Vietnam basically has favorable conditions
for rice production with tropical weather, available land and water resources and long life
experience in rice cultivation. Therefore, the supply and export of rice have been increasing since
1989. However, taking an overall standpoint of food security (World Food Summit 1996), the food
security in Vietnam should receive much concerns. And we will analyze this status in details here
below.
a. Food Availability
Vietnam has 33 million ha of land, of which 7 million ha are agricultural land and rice occupies
about 4 million ha. Rice is the main food of the Vietnamese people providing 80 percent of the
carbohydrate and 40 percent of the protein intake in the diet. It is the predominant crop in most of
the ecological regions of the country. Most of the rice grown in Vietnam is in the Red River Delta in
the north, where nearly 85 percent of the area was irrigated, and in the Mekong River Delta in the
south. Upland rice is grown on about 100,000 hectares in the southeastern region, central, and
northern highlands.
Along with the economic reform and high economic growth, rice production has increased rapidly.
Figure 1: Rice planted area and production
Source: GSO (2011)
While the land for rice tends to decrease, the total rice cultivated acreage has increased steadily
(from 6.04 million ha to 7.6 million ha) and the total output has increased to nearly 20 million tons
since 1990. Therefore, rice production not only provides enough for domestic demand which has
shown a downward trend since 2008 and is predicted to continue in the near future but
also surpluses for export and rice export reached the peak in 2011 of nearly 7 million tons.
1
Figure 2: Rice export increase (thousand tons)
Source: GSO (2011)
Figure 3: Structural Turning Point in VN’s National Rice Consumption (Million Tons)
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
7000
Source: GSO (2011) and author’s prediction
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b. Food accessibility
Income growth has contributed remarkably to the improvement of food accessibility. This, in turn,
support the country to reduce poverty rate in general and in both rural and urban areas. The
percentage of population living below the total poverty line has decline rather rapidly especially in
urban areas. Considering the poverty rate by regions, it is clearly to see that the poverty incidence
is not equal across regions. Northern mountainous area is the poorest region with poverty rate of
26.5%, followed by Central Highlands and North Central and Central Coast with rate of about 20%.
South East is the region with the lowest poverty incidence.
Table 1: Poverty rate1
The whole country
Urban areas
Rural areas
By region
Red River Delta
Northern mountainous areas
North Central and Central
Coast
Central Highland
South East
Mekong River Delta
Source: GSO (2011)
2004
18.1
8.6
21.2
2006
15.5
7.7
18.0
2008
13.4
6.7
16.1
2010
14.2
6.9
17.4
2011
12.6
5.1
15.9
2010
14.2
5.1
15.9
12.7
29.4
10.0
27.5
8.6
25.1
8.3
29.4
7.1
26.7
7.1
26.7
25.3
29.2
4.6
15.3
22.2
24.0
3.1
13.0
19.2
21.0
2.5
11.4
20.4
22.2
2.3
12.6
18.5
20.3
1.7
11.6
18.5
20.3
1.7
11.6
Beside that, nutrition patterns of Vietnamese people have also been improved. Since 2000, there
have been significant improvements in food consumption pattern with decreasing ratio of rice and
tubers consumption and dramatic increase in consumption of meat products, fruits, eggs and milk.
Figure 4: Average food consumption per head
Source: General Nutrition Survey (2009-2010)
1
The rate is at household level and calculated basing on MOLISA poverty line.
3
Moreover, the proportion of undernourished population is much lower than other regional
countries reflecting a big achievement in nutrition aspect.
Table 2: Undernourished Situtation
Indicator
Measure
Vietnam Thailand Philippines China Cambodia Myanmar Indonesia
Proportion of
Percent
Undernourished
Population
11
16
15
10
22
16
13
Number of
Millions
Undernourished
9.6
10.8
13.2
130.4
3.0
7.8
29.9
2770
2530
2520
2970
2250
2440
2540
Dietary energy
supply (DES)
Kcal/
person/day
Source: GSO (2008)
Despite improvements, there are big gaps among income quintiles in nutritional intakes. The
below figure shows that the three lowest income quintile groups spend the largest proportion of
their monthly expenditure for rice while meat accounts for the largest part of the two rich
groups’ monthly income.
Figure 5: Monthly expenditure per capita by income quintiles in Vietnam
(1: poorest, 5: richest)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
Meat
2
Out of Home Eating
3
4
Rice
Fish
5
Fruit and Veg
Source: GSO (2009)
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In addition, there is a disconection between rice surplus and nutrition goals in Vietnam. While
rice surplus has been increasing rather rapidly since 1999, the rate of stunting childen under 5
year old has went down slowly and become stagnant for the last 8 years.
Figure 6: Disconnect Between Vietnam’s Rice Surplus and Nutrition-Related Goals
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
<5 Child Stunting Rate (%)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Rice Export Volume (000 Tons)
Source: GSO (2010)
c. Stability
Vietnam has attained great achievements in ensuring food supply but there are still many factors
that affect its stability.
Rising food prices
The recent increases in global commodity prices including food products have posed a new set of
challenges to Vietnam’s ability to maintain a path of sustainable and socially equitable growth. If
the world rice price remained at rather low levels in the past, food price volatility has become a
major issue on international market and many domestic markets as well since 2006. In today’s
globalized world, price changes in the international market are most likely to be transmitted to the
domestic market sooner or later. Therefore, it is not surprising that food prices in Vietnam have
fluctuated dramatically recently.
Figure 7: Rice price fluctuation
14000
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9
05 05 05 06 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 08 09 09 09 10 10 10
FOB $
HCMC urb/kg
Can Tho urb/kg
.
Source: Agroinfo (2012)
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The significant rise in food prices has led to increasing vulnerability among specific groups in the
population. In the first place, the higher food prices exert downward pressure on households’
purchasing power, especially in the context of high inflation rate in the economy. Households of
low incomes, who spend a significant proportion of their income on foods have received big
adverse impacts of high food price . In addition, the high rice price has also increased the
probability of households who had just overcome the poverty line falling back below it. In this way,
the sustainability of the success of Viet Nam’s poverty reduction efforts over the past 20 years
could quickly be undermined.
Figure 8: Rice rice Volatility
Natural Hazards
With its unique mix of geography, Vietnam is one of the countries in the Asia Pacific region most
vulnerable to natural disasters. Its long and exposed coastline is subjected to annual beatings by
typhoons, its mountainous terrain is hit alternately by flash floods and prolonged drought, while its
wide river deltas are extremely prone to flooding.
Viet Nam has recently affected by many types of disasters; amongst them, flood and storm are the
most serious and frequent disaster events causing loss of human lives and significant damage to
housing and agricultural produce. Provinces in the North- and South-Central regions are most
regularly affected by disasters, but other provinces in the North and the Mekong River delta have
also seen severe damage, due likely to more extreme events.
Temporal trend analysis shows that there is an increasing trend in disasters recorded over the past
twenty years (1989-2010) with varied impacts on human losses and damages to housing. Extreme
events have occurred also in this time period.
All these disasters can caused severe impacts on crops and food resources, as well as seed stock,
fertilizers and other resources in vulnerable areas; this requires strategies and contingency plans
for disaster risk reduction and damage control at the provincial and local levels. Here below are 2
scenarios for climate changes and under both likely circumstances, Vietnam will meet many
difficulties in terms of sunk areas and the number of people affected.
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Figure 9: Some scenarios for climate change and its effects in Vietnam
Sea water: 1m
Sunk area: 9.1%
People affected: 15.6%
Sea water: 1.5
Sunk area: 12.2%
People affected: 23.9% (20mil)
2. Food security towards 2030
a. New challenges and threats
Climate change is expected to lead to a temperature rise of up to 2,5 ºC by the year 2070. Changes
in rainfall patterns are expected to have a large impact. Central Vietnam for example may expect an
increase of 20% during the Northeast monsoon, while the river flow in the dry season may be
reduced to 40%, leading to drought. Climate change is also expected to lead to more typhoon
landfalls and sea level rise.
Natural resources, especially land and water are becoming scarce, thus creating disputes in use and
leading to conflicts of interest among countries and communities that are locating in the same river
basin.
The fossil fuels are also becoming scarce due to the fact that human beings have used very large
amounts of them like coal and oil to accelerate the process of economic development. And the
world economy is dependent largely on fossil fuels which are accounting for about 80% of primary
energy supply. That means the shortage and the scarcity of them will put much pressure on the
economy and our daily lives as well.
The world population continues to increase and is expected to reach 9 billion in 2042. From 1950 to
2006, grain production tripled, but the world's population growth was faster than that rate.
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Therefore, the world's food reserves became smaller to the food requirement. In the past 20 years,
consumption has grown faster than the growth rate of food supply. In Asia, the main food market,
the population increased by 1.5% each year while rice output increased by only 1.2%, thus the
demand for rice continues to increase in the future.
b. Rice balance scenarios in Vietnam towards 2030
Basing on the current situations of rice production in Vietnam, we work out some scenarios to have
a clearer picture about the future of rice balance in Vietnam.
Key assumption for the scenarios is that paddy land of 3.8 million ha (Land1) will be either strictly
secured and remain unchanged from now on or will reduce gradually at recent reduction rate and
end up with 3 million ha (Land2) by 2030.
Other assumptions include assumptions and probabilities for productivity and per capita
consumption as follows:
Table 3: Assumptions for scenarios
Post harvest losses (%)
Rice yield (tons/ha)
Consumption per capita (kg/year)
1
10 (100%)
7 (30%)
100 (75%)
2
3
6.3 (50%)
120 (25%)
5.8 (20%)
If paddy land will be kept at the current area of 3.8 million, rice surplus will range from 5 million tons
to nearly 12 million tons, which is a very large amount depending on different rice yields and
consumption per capita assumptions.
Table 4: Scenarios with 3.8 million ha of paddy land.
Unit: Thousand tons
Land1 + Yield1 + Cons1
Land1 + Yield1 + Cons2
Land1 + Yield2 + Cons1
Land1 + Yield2 + Cons2
Land1 + Yield3 + Cons1
Land1 + Yield3 + Cons2
Paddy output
47894
47894
43343
43343
40315
40315
Rice
Consumption
10602
12722
10602
12722
10602
12722
Rice Export
11800
9149
8886
6765
7294
5174
In case paddy land will reduce at the rate of 5 recent consecutive years, it is estimated that paddy land
area will end up with only 3 million ha by 2030. However, Vietnam can ensure food supply for domestic
demand with only 3 million ha of paddy land at the “worst case” with no improvement in rice
productivity and no reduction in consumption which are least likely to occur.
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Table 5: Scenarios with 3.0 million ha of paddy land.
Unit: Thousand tons
Rice
Paddy output
Consumption
Rice Export
Land2 + Yield1 + Cons1
37811
10602
6579
Land2 + Yield1 + Cons2
37811
12722
3929
Land2 + Yield2 + Cons1
34218
10602
4167
Land2 + Yield2 + Cons2
34218
12722
2047
Land2 + Yield3 + Cons1
31828
10602
2911
Land2 + Yield3 + Cons2
31828
12722
790
3. Policies on Natural Resources and Infrastructure Management for Agriculture to ensure food
supply.
Recognizing the importance of natural resources and infrastructure for agriculture in ensuring
food supply in the long term, the government of Vietnam has issued policies to protect and
maintain the natural resources as well as policies on enhancing the infrastructure for agricultural
production. Some of the most important policies are
a. Land policies
Land is the main natural resources for agricultural production. Although agricultural land in
Vietnam accounts for 75% of the total land area of the country- a big proportion but paddy land
comprises of but only 16% of the total agricultural land and has shown a decreasing trend
recently. Paddy land lost in the last 10 years is the most fertile and suitable land for rice
production. From 2005 to 2007, paddy land reduced by 34,330 ha and 79% of which is land in
Red River Delta (8,000 ha) and Mekong River Delta (15,000 ha), the two biggest region for rice
production2 . Therefore, the issue of agricultural land, especially paddy land has received great
attention of policy makers, demonstrated in a large variety of current policies as follows:
-
Land Law No. 13/2003/2011 dated 26/11/03
-
Resolution No. 63/NQ-CP dated 23/12/2009 on ensuring national food security
-
Resolution No. 17/2011/QH13 dated 22/11/2011 on land plan towards 2020 and the
national 5 year land use plan for 2011-2015
-
Decision No. 124/QĐ-TTg dated 2/2/2012 on master plan for the development of
agricultural production towards 2020 and 2030 visioning
-
Decision No. 432/QĐ-TTg dated 12/4/2012 on sustainable development strategy for 20112020
-
Decree No. 42/2012/NĐCP dated 11/5/2012 on paddy land use and management.
All these policies focus on the below issues:
-
Ensuring the proper use and management of paddy land
To ensure the National Food Security, the government has set the goal to keep 3.8 million ha of
paddy land to ensure paddy production of 41-43 million tons that meets the domestic demand
2
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment’s Report in 2007
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and ensures the export volume of 4 million tons per year. The 7th Resolution of the Communist
Party also sets the goal for Vietnam agriculture to maintain the current paddy land area and
ensure national food security in medium and long term.
The National Food Security Strategy of the Vietnam Government has stated “Paddy land is an
irreplaceable, non-renewable, non-expandable resource. It is the most important factor for
production development. Protective, effective and stable use of paddy land is, thus, the decisive
measure to ensure the National Food Security”.
-
Promotion of land exchanges and accumulation
Small scale production is a serious obstacle to agricultural production and a consequence of
previous land allocation for farmers basing on the “near and far, good and bad, high and low”
principle. To settle the issue, it is important to finish the process of land accumulation with the
aim to establish large and modern commercial production areas to replace the small-scale
household production.
-
Support policies to protect and enlarge paddy land which include support policies for regions
or provinces who have favorable conditions for rice production and those for rice farmers.
b. Policies on water resources for agriculture production
Like land, water is an indispensable resource for rice production in Vietnam. If water was
previously regarded as an abundant natural resource, water resource for agricultural production
including rice production is becoming increasingly scarce. Water shortages have been becoming
more severe, especially in the Red and the Mekong River Delta- the two major rice producing
areas. Most importance policies are:
-
Decision No. 81/2006/QĐ-TTg dated 14/4/2006 on National Strategy for Water resources
towards 2020.
-
Law on Water Resources No. 17/2012/QH13 dated 21/6/2012
-
Decision No. 1590/QD-TTg dated 09/10/2009 on Irrigation Development Strategy
Under this legal framework, water resources are protected by
-
Setting out comprehensively viewpoint, guiding principles, objectives, missions and
implementation measures regarding the protection, exploitation, use and development of
water resources
-
Working out methods for prevention and mitigation of adverse impacts caused by water
-
Delivery of state responsibilities for related ministries on water sector avoiding conflict,
contradictions, gaps, overlaps on regulating functions, duties, power and organizational
structure of the ministries.
c. Policies on infrastructure for agriculture
Infrastructure is considered to be a key issue for the development of agriculture. Infrastructure
for agriculture includes but not limited to irrigation systems, storage systems, infrastructure for
scientific researches on agriculture, and infrastructure for trading agricultural products.
Some prevailing policies on agricultural infrastructure in general and those for rice production in
particular are:
-
Ordinance No. 32/2001/PL-UBTVQH10 dated 04/04/2001 on exploitation and protection of
irrigation works
10
-
Law on Dykes No. 78/2006/QH11 dated 29/11/06
-
Decision No. 1590/QD-TTg dated 09/10/2009 on Irrigation Development Strategy
-
Instruction No. 4935/VPCP-KTTH dated 07/04/12 on construction of storages for rice
-
Other policies to promote scientific research and technology transfer in agriculture, with
particular emphasis on selected issues: plant breeding, plant protection agents and
fertilizers.
Thanks to the policies, investment on infrastructure for agriculture has been increasing and
irrigation system receives highest attention with investment on it in 1991-1995 accounted for
75% of total capital for agriculture and since then, annual investment for irrigation has been
made up from 1,350 to 1,700 billion dongs.
Annually, the Government allocates a budget of about 2% GDP for science and technology and
one third of the budget goes to agricultural science and technology, mostly to research projects
on plant and animal breeding with the aim to achieve breakthroughs in plant yield and quality.
And thanks to this, infrastruture for agriculture has been improved much with
-
64% of rice land are irrigated and exempt from irrigation fee.
-
95% of communes having car road.,
-
National electric grid covers 96,4% of districts and 89% of communes
-
100 % of communal office having telephones;
-
72% of communes having post office; 56% having markets;
-
100% of communes having clinics; 100% having primary schools;
-
83% of rural inhabitants having access to clean water
However, in genernal the total investment in agriculture in Vietnam is still very small (about 67% of total investment in whole country) and much lower than the contribution of the sector in
national GDP.
Figure 10: Investment in agriculture in total investment (bil dong, 1994 price)
450000
Investment in Agriculture, forestry and fishing
400000
Total investment
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: GSO (2011)
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4. Policy implications
Basing on the current situation of the whole economy and the rice sector, in the context of
small-holding agriculture, and in accordance with the food security objectives set up by the
government:
-
Ensure food supply by continuing to promote intensive rice production, especially in the
Mekong and Red River Delta, creating stable supply sources to ensure national food security in
the short and long term.
-
Ensure nutritional needs by improving nutritional status towards balanced nutrition and calorie
consumption increase to reach the average annual of 2600-2700 Kcal/person and reduce the
incidence of malnutrition in children under 5 years old to less than 5% .
-
Ensure food accessibility by eliminating food shortage and hunger by 2012 and ensuring that
100% of people everywhere, at all times have enough food.
We here below give some policy suggestions:
Regarding paddy land, we suggest to keep highest attention on keeping paddy land in the
Mekong and Red River Delta and classify paddy land into 3 types:
o
Type 1- extremely suitable land for paddy production: This type of land which is located
in favorable areas must be kept for a long term thus result in high rice quality and yield.
o
Type 2- suitable land for paddy production: This type of land will be kept for a certain
period of time, and can be used for other crops to diversify income for farmers if
necessary
o
Type 3- others. This type of land can be used for other crops if required.
By clearly diversifying paddy land, it will be easier for land protection and management, paving
the way for using land more effectively and giving opportunities for farmers to improve their
income by diversifying their production.
Policies for improving rice yield and rice production are also concerned issues.
-
Bigger investment in researches on new and better varieties, especially diseases and flood
resistant varieties.
-
Carry out researches to find out suitable crop structures taking into account the ecological
balance, ensuring production efficiency and suitability.
-
Develop large-scale rice production in Mekong and Red River Delta by supporting land
accumulation and consolidation, expanding or removing land limits and improving agricultural
services.
Policies on infrastructure for agriculture should aim at:
-
Speed up the process of building rice storages to enhance the current storage capacity and
quality.
-
Promoting mechanization in the production, harvesting, processing and storage of rice.
-
Providing more and better facilities for rice trading such as construction of Can Tho Port for rice
export in the Mekong Delta.
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-
Strengthening the rice distribution system and trading network such as food retail outlets and
warehouse systems.
13