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Small States, Regional Integration and Globalization at the University of Iceland
THE SMALL STATES OF THE SOUTH
CAUCASUS:
GEORGIA, ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
DR. ROBIA CHARLES
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AGENDA
Introduction
Political Integration
Relations with the EU and NATO
Territorial Conflicts
Economic Integration
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INTRODUCTION
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SOUTH CAUCASUS: AN INTRODUCTION
Incorporation
into the Russian
Empire
First
Republic
Union Republics
within the USSR
Early
1800s
19181920/1921
19221991
Independence
1991
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QUICK FACTS
Religion
Language
Ethnic groups
Population
Size
comparison
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
95% Armenian
Apostolic
84% Georgian
Orthodox, 10% Muslim
60% Shia, 30% Sunni,
3% Orthodox
Armenian
հայերեն լեզուն
Georgian
ქართულ ენაზე
Azeri
Azərbaycan dili
98% Armenian, 1.3%
Russian
3 million
83% Georgian, 7%
90% Azeri, Lezgin 2.2%,
Azeri, 6% Armenian, 2%
Russian 2%
Russian
4.5 million
9.5 million
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Belgium (29,743 km2)
Lithuania (69,700 km2)
Austria (86,600 km2)
GEORGIA
 Presidential republic
 Western integration
 Independence from Russia
 South Ossetia and Abkhazia
 Transit
 Black Sea
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ARMENIA
 Presidential republic
 Landlocked, transportation and
economic isolation
 Military and economic
dependence on Russia*
 Good relations with Iran
 Nagorno Karabakh
 Turkey
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AZERBAIJAN
 Presidential republic
 Tenuous alliance with
Turkey
 Energy supplier
 Nagorno Karabakh
 Caspian Sea
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POLITICAL INTEGRATION*
 The South Caucasus between Russia and the EU (the Near Abroad)
 Rejoining the world as independent states after 1991
 Behind on democratic reform
 EU
 European Neighborhood Policy>Eastern Partnership (EaP)*
 Bilateral association agreements
 Sectoral cooperation
 Institution-building programs
 Civil society organizations
 NATO*
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EASTERN PARTNERSHIP (EAP)*
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RELATIONS WITH THE EU AND NATO
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
 Strong desire to join the EU
 Lower desire to join the EU
 Lower desire to join the EU
 Strong desire to join NATO
 Little desire to join NATO
 Little desire to join NATO
 Desire for independence and
 EU supports opening the
to have good relations with
Russia
border
 A closed border with Turkey,
conflict over Nagorno
Karabakh impedes integration
into NATO and independence
from Russia
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To what extent would you support your country’s membership in
the European Union? (%)
(CB 2012)
Fully support
Rather not support
Armenia
26
Azerbaijan
26
Georgia
Rather support
Don't support at all
Equally support and don’t support
Don't know
28
22
22
38
23
34
5
6
6
13
6
13
16
2
11
16
To what extent would you support your country’s membership in
NATO? (%)
(CB 2012)
Fully support
Rather not support
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
15
Rather support
Don't support at all
18
23
26
11
22
34
Equally support and don’t support
Don't know
23
33
12
8
18
7
14
18
3 3
12
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3 TERRITORIAL CONFLICTS*
 South Ossetia (population of 55,000)
 158,000 displaced
 Abkhazia (population of 242,862)
 133,000 displaced
 Nagorno Karabakh (population of
46,573)
 30,000 killed and 1 million displaced
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RUSSIA-GEORGIA WAR (2008)*
 Ongoing disagreement since 1991
 May 2008: Russia sends troops to Abkhazia
 August 2008: Georgia sends troops to South Ossetia
 Russia sends troops to border and air strikes South Ossetia
 Russian tanks move into Georgia proper
 Ceasefire brokered by Sarkozy
 Russian troops withdraw and recognizes the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
 Administrative boundary line (ABL) created with Russian troops on one side and EUMM on
the other
 Georgia sees this as Russian occupation (20% of Georgian territory)
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NAGORNO KARABAKH
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NAGORNO KARABAKH
 1921: Stalin NKAO in Azerbaijani SSR with majority Armenian population
 1988: NK seeks to be part of Armenian SSR. Ethnic swap begins. Moscow
declares martial law in NKAO
 1992: NK declares itself an independent republic. Armenian military
begin to take villages
 1991-1994: 30,000 killed, 350,000 Armenian refugees, 600,000 Azeri IDPs
 1994: Ceasefire accord signed (Russian mediation).
 Minsk Process under the OSCE has failed*
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THE PASSENGER (SHORT FILM)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QReNxbw_62s
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How likely is it to find a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict within the next 5 years by peaceful negotiation? (%)
(CB 2011)
Very likely
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Rather likely
Rather unlikely
38
26
Very unlikely
23
25
9
22
DK
RA
12
17
19
1
7
1
26
How likely is it to find a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict within the next 5 years by force? (%)
(CB 2011)
Very likely
Armenia
Azerbaijan
11
Rather likely
10
19
19
23
Rather unlikely
Very unlikely
DK
36
28
RA
23
19
1
10
1
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TURKISH-ARMENIAN BORDER (1993)
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ARMENIA
What effect will the opening of borders with Turkey have on...(%)
(CB 2011 and 2012)
Effect on
Armenian
economy
Effect on internal Effect on national
politics
security
Beneficial
2010
2012
2010
2012
7
No effect
Harmful
22
14
58
13
12
Don't know
13
47
27
26
23
44
11
2010
49
2012
49
18
39
26
8
5
32
28
10
18
29
ARMENIA
Support of opening the Turkish-Armenian border
with no preconditions (%)
(CB 2012)
41
35
16
8
30
Support
Equally support and
oppose
Oppose
Don't know
ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
 USSR economy vs. market economies*
 Survival in the international economy is based on local niche economies:
 Energy in Azerbaijan
 Energy transport in Georgia
 Manufacturing in Armenia
 Commonwealth of Independent States (1991)*
 Eurasian Economics Union (2015) = alternative to the EU’s
neighborhood policy
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ECONOMIES
Georgia
 Inefficient industrial and
agricultural sectors
 Service sector is 69% of GDP
 Oil and gas transport
 GDP $16 billion
 GDP pc $7,165
 WTO member
Armenia
Azerbaijan
 Manufacturing
 Natural gas and oil
 Outdated industry sector
 Oil rents is 42% of GDP
 Scarce natural resources
 GDP $67 billion
 GDP $10 billion
 GDP pc $17,139
 GDP pc %7,774
 Over $1 billion military
 Remittances (21% of GDP)
 WTO member
budget
 WTO consideration
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GEORGIA*
 Trade and economic pact with the EU
(2014)
 Poor relations with Russia
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ARMENIA
 3 Stages of economic development since
independence
 Post-transition progress
 Qualitative stagnation
 Hopeless stagnation
 Russia is the largest economic partner and controls
the transport and energy sector*
 2 million Armenians in Russia, $1 million in
remittances annually
 2013 intention to join Eurasian Customs Union
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AZERBAIJAN*
 No intention to join the Eurasian
Customs Union
 Agricultural sector would be destroyed
by cheap products from Russia, Ukraine
and Belarus
 Losing independence over energy policy
 Nagorno Karabakh
 Russian dominance
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GEOPOLITICS*
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GEOPOLITICS
 South Caucasus energy is perceived as a threat to Russia
 Russia supplies Armenia with gas via Georgia
 Georgia receives power from the Metsamor nuclear power
plant Armenia supplied with Russian uranium that is flown over
Georgia
 Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan have plans to synchronize their
energy grids
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THANK YOU!
[email protected]
WWW.CRRCCENTERS.ORG
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