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Slides to illustrate relative value of various criteria in DSF
MAREFRAME TEAM
Note on Co-creation and the Criteria, Scenarios and models
used here.
You, the stakeholders are a vital part of the MAREFRAME Project.
Today is mostly about demonstrating and understanding how the Decision Support Framework works and
the sort of inputs and agreements you would need to make to make it operational. Nothing will be set in
stone after this meeting!
As it is currently framed following our Den Haag meetings with PELAC and NSAC we have adopted a series of
Criteria for Pelagics, Demersals and for Ecosystem Health and rated them against various Scenarios.
You have been asked individually to tentatively weight these criteria within the three sub groups of
Pelagics, Demersals and Ecosystem Health. Ultimately it will also be necessary to get weightings
between these subgroups. If ultimately you can agree these you will have a stronger chance of
influencing any final choice made by the managers!
The values the criteria have for each of the scenarios you suggested come from the green model. This is a
simplified front end to one multispecies model (SMS). Ultimately we would like it to front up a series of
different models so that differences and uncertainties in model outcomes are apparent and become part
of the decision process.
In the light of todays discussions you may want to suggest different criteria or new scenarios and we are
more than happy to help with this dialog. That is what Co-creation is all about.
Note on tradeoffs
All the trade offs we are looking at today are
for the long term.
The short term is of course vitally important as
well but they change from year to year and
in any case single species models could
usually show these adequately.
The figure shows how the different criteria
trade off for a very simple fishery
In a multispecies system like the North Sea life
is far more complex but less fishing on a
species is likely for associated species and
fleets to improve profitability though not
necessarily total profit, SSB and
conservation status but to decrease
employment afloat and ashore.
Demersal CFP Compliant criteria
Fishing Mortality Rate
SSB (NB Plaice scaled to improve contrast)
0.60
400
350
0.50
300
0.40
250
200
0.30
150
0.20
100
50
0.10
0
SSB cod
0.00
Fcod
F haddock
F saithe
F whiting
F plaice
F sole
SSB haddock
SSB saithe
SSB whiting
BAU
MMEY Solution
MAX GVA
Maximum value
MEY Dem
Blim
BAU
MMEY Solution
MAX GVA
Maximum value
Conservation
MEY Pel
Conservation
MEY Pel
MEY Dem
SS Fmsy
SS MSY Btrigger
SS Bmsy*
SSB plaice*0.1
SSB sole
Note These are all compared to the existing single species reference points. It is possible that some future
CFP might use Multispecies reference points.
Demersal Social Criteria
Note at sea labour
is given as labour
costs in million €
while processing
jobs are given as
estimates of FTE
Demersal Economic Criteria
Note that Profit and Landings
value (left hand axis) are in
million € while
Equity (right hand axis) is the %
range of how profit or landed
value of demersal gears differed
from BAU under each other
scenario. E.g. if one demersal
gears profit was reduced by 40%
and another increased by 40%
as the result of a scenario
change from BAU then the profit
equity measure would be 80%.
It thus indicates how benefits are
shared. A low value suggests
even sharing while a high value
winners and losers. However, it
would be wise to look further
into these figures to see if they
are plausible or if they might be
mitigated.
Pelagic CFP Compliance Criteria
Fishing Mortality Rate
SSB mt(000)
2000
1.2
1800
1600
1
mt(000)
mt(000)
0.8
mt(000)
1400
1200
1000
0.6
800
0.4
600
400
0.2
200
0
0
Herring
Sprat
Mackerel
Herring
Sprat
Mackerel(.1*NEA)
BAU
MMEY Solution
MAX GVA
Maximum value
BAU
MMEY Solution
MAX GVA
Maximum value
Conservation
Conservation
MEY Pel
MEY Dem
Fmsy
MEY Pel
MEY Dem
Blim
MSY Btrigger
Bmsy*
Note These are all compared to the existing single species reference points. It is
possible that some future CFP might use Multispecies reference points.
Pelagic Social Criteria
Note at sea labour is
given as labour costs in
million € while
processing jobs are
given as estimates of
FTE
Note Profit and Landings value
are in million € combined for the
Pelagic trawl, Pelagic siene and
the industrial TR3 and Otter
gears.
Stability of Portfolio is a
combination of the likely year to
year Coefficient of Variation of
Combined Herring and Mackerel
catches for the North Sea. Since
for all scenarios stock levels
remain sufficiently high to keep
these in the 15% and 20%
annual variation there is little
contrast. But if stock level fell
below limit reference points year
to year variation would increase
due to recruitment variation and
assessment and management
rule variations.
Pelagic Economic Criteria
Ecosystem Health Criteria
Notes
Biodiversity: It is difficult to give a
biodiversity measure from the green model
that only contains 12 species. The measure
given here is of the proportion of the all
species SSB that is composed of pelagic
species. A higher figure suggests some
fishing down the food web. However there is
little contrast between the scenarios shown.
Size Structure: This is taken as a proxy for
the Large Fish Index, the proportion of
survey catch >40cm. The predictions here
based upon extrapolated regression results
from the CSM seem high. However, they are
based upon a plausible formulae that gives a
reduced figure when fishing is reduced on
small species and a higher figure when
fishing is reduced upon larger species and
probably give a reasonable relative measure.
It is also likely that all scenarios considered
would exceed the 0.3 target.
Bottom Disturbance is a weighted sum of demersal Fs
relative to BAU. It gives a heavier weight to beam
trawlers.
Charismatic by-catch an unweighted sum of all Fs on
the assumption that all gears might cause such bycatches