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Introduction To Health Statistics Dr. Premananda Bharati Professor and Head Biological Anthropology Unit Indian Statistical Institute 203, B.T. Road, Kolkata – 700 108 West Bengal, India E-mail: [email protected] 1 What is health statistics? Health and medical statistics incorporate a variety of data types. The most common statistics reported are vital (birth, death, marriage, divorce rates), morbidity (incidence of disease in a population) and mortality (the number of people who die of a certain disease). Other common statistical data reported are health care costs, the demographic distribution of disease based on geographic, ethnic, and gender variables, and data on the socioeconomic status and education of health care professionals. 2 CLASSIFYING DISEASES • Acute Diseases – Acute diseases are those conditions in which the peak severity of symptoms occurs within three months (usually sooner), and recovery in those who survive is usually complete. • Chronic Diseases – Chronic diseases are those in which symptoms continue longer than three months and in some cases for the remainder of the person’s life. Recovery is slow and sometimes incomplete. 3 CLASSIFYING DISEASES (cont’d.) • Communicable (Infectious) Diseases – Diseases for which biological agents or their products are the cause and which are transmissible from one individual to another. – The disease process begins when the causative agent is able to lodge and grow or reproduce within the body. – The process of lodgment and growth of a microorganism or virus in the host is termed infection. • Non-communicable (Noninfectious) Diseases/Illnessses – Those diseases or illnesses that cannot be transmitted from an infected person to a susceptible, healthy one. – Several, or even many, factors may contribute to the development of a given non-communicable health condition. – The contributing factors may be genetic, environmental, or behavioral in nature. 4 Classification of Diseases • Acute Diseases – Communicable – Non-communicable (incl. trauma) Common cold, pneumonia, mumps, measles, typhoid fever, flu. Appendicitis, poisoning, trauma (e.g., due to automobile accidence, fires, etc.) • Chronic Diseases – Communicable – Non-communicable Tuberculosis, AIDS, syphilis, rheumatic fever following streptococcal infections, herpes Diabetes, coronary heart disease, osteoarthritis, cirrhosis of the liver due to alcoholism, hypertension. 5 COURSE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE • Exposure/Invasion of Host • Incubation -- period of time between exposure and onset of symptoms -- e.g., interval between HIV infection and development of AIDS can be as long as 10-15 years • Host reaction • Disease runs course -- treatment, recovery/death (most people don’t die from infectious diseases) MODES OF COMMUNICABLE DISEASE TRANSMISSION Direct Transmission Indirect Transmission 6 DIRECT TRANSMISSION Immediate transfer of the disease agent by direct contact between the infected and the susceptible individuals Occurs through such acts as touching, biting, kissing, sexual intercourse, or by direct projection (droplet spread) by coughing or sneezing within a distance of one meter Examples of diseases for which transmission is usually direct are AIDS, syphilis, gonorrhea, and the common cold 7 INDIRECT TRANSMISSION May be one of three types: Air-borne Vehicle-borne(toys,handkerchiefs, food, bleeding) vector-borne (living organism, fly, mosquito) 8 Infectious Diseases 9 Factors Influencing Disease Transmission Agent Environment • Weather • Infectivity • Housing • Pathogenicity • Geography • Virulence • Occupational setting • Immunogenicity • Air quality • Antigenic stability • Food • Survival • Age • Sex Host • Genotype • Behaviour • Nutritional status • Health status 10 Leading Causes of Mortality and Burden of Disease World , 2004 Mortality 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Ischaemic heart disease Cerebrovascular disease Lower respiratory infections COPD (Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) Diarrhoeal diseases HIV/AIDS Tuberculosis Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers Road traffic accidents Prematurity, low birth weight DALYs* % 12.2 9.7 7.1 5.1 3.7 3.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Lower respiratory infections Diarrhoeal diseases Depression Ischaemic heart disease HIV/AIDS Cerebrovascular disease Prematurity, low birth weight Birth asphyxia, birth trauma Road traffic accidents Neonatal infections and other % 6.2 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 (*DALY) The disability-adjusted life year is a measure of overall disease burden, expressed as the number of years lost due to ill-health, disability or early death. 11 Distribution of child deaths for selected causes by selected WHO region, 2004 12 Adult mortality rates by major cause group and region, 2004 Cardiovascular diseases High income Cancers Other noncommunicable diseases Western Pacific Injuries HIVAIDS Americas Other infectious and parasitic diseases Maternal and nutritional conditions Eastern Mediterranean South East Asia Europe Africa 0 2 4 6 8 10 Death rate per 1000 adults aged 15–59 years 12 13 Global projections for selected causes, 2004 to 2030 12 Cancers Deaths (millions) 10 Ischaemic HD Stroke 8 6 Acute respiratory infections 4 Road traffic accidents Perinatal HIV/AIDS TB Malaria 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Updated from Mathers and Loncar, PLoS Medicine, 2006 Projected deaths by cause and income, 2004 to 2030 30 Intentional injuries Other unintentional Road traffic accidents Deaths (millions) 25 Other NCD 20 Cancers 15 CVD 10 Mat//peri/nutritional 5 Other infectious HIV, TB, malaria 0 2004 2015 2030 High income 2004 2015 2030 Middle income 2004 2015 2030 Low income 15 What is public health? Public Health is the science of protecting and improving the community health through health education, promotion of healthy lifestyles, research, and disease prevention strategies. 16 Public health components MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES CONCEPTS SKILLS PRACTICES ALL INTERTWINED WITH BELIEFS 17 Associated disciplines-I •Preventive medicine: (.. The application of preventive measures by clinical practitioners…) •Community medicine: (..the study of health and disease in the population of a defined community..) 18 Associated disciplines-II Epidemiology Statistics Nutrition Health education (debatable if separate or part of PH) Environmental health Population and demography Medical sociology Anthropology Health ethics Behavioral sciences/health education Health services administration 19 Again, what is public health? Public health clearly includes some elements of medical practice, preventive medicine, community medicine. It also includes other disciplines such as nutrition, environmental health, and anthropology. However, it is greater than the sum of all theses parts. 20 Areas of concentration • Health promotion: (...the process of enabling people to increase control over and improve their health...) • Disease prevention: (...the goals of medicine are embodied in the word prevention: to promote health, to preserve health, to restore health when it is impaired, and to minimize suffering and distress) 21 Public health v. medicine Patient Population Individual Intervention Assessment, Policy Medical, surgical Process Outcome Development, Assurance treatment System management Patient management Healthy community Healing 22 Agencies concerned with public health? Practice settings Govt. agencies-MOH Local agencies, municipalities ..etc NGOS Private International organizations? Academic institutions Schools of public health & other programs 23 Core Functions Assessment Policy Development Assurance Vision Healthy People in Healthy Communities Mission Promote physical and mental health and prevent disease, injury, and disability. 24 The fundamental obligation of agencies responsible for population-based health is to: Prevent epidemics and the spread of disease Protect against environmental hazards Prevent injuries Promote and encourage healthy behaviors and mental health Respond to disasters and assist communities in recovery Assure the quality and accessibility of health services 25 Core Functions 26 The measures • Measures of disease occurrence – Prevalence P – Risk R – Incidence rate I • Measures of causal effects – Risk difference RD – Risk ratio RR – Incidence rate difference IRD – Incidence rate ratio IRR – Odds ratio OR 27 Measures of disease occurence • Prevalence P • Risk CI • CFR = risk of death • Incidence rate I – Mortality M = incidence of death 28 Prevalence (Prevalence proportion) The proportion of a population with a certain disease at a given point in time The probability that a randomly chosen individual has the disease P= number of diseased people at the point in time number of individuals in the population P = 0 to 1, or percentage, per million etc. Prevalence : Prevalence is an indicator of the disease occurring in a population. A prevalence rate refers to the proportion of cases of a disease existing in a population, which includes freshly diagnosed cases as well as those living with the disease, to the total population. Thus, Prevalence Rate = No. of cases of a disease / Population size. It is good measure of the burden of a disease in a society or a population. If diabetes is taken into consideration in a population of 50,000 people out of whom 2000 are freshly diagnosed cases whereas 5000 are already living with diabetes, then the prevalence of diabetes will be 0.14 (7000/50000) or 14% or 14000 per 100,000 persons. 29 Point prevalence is prevalence at a certain point in time, the true prevalence. The point is either a calendar point in time, or a certain event, such as birth. Lifetime prevalence is the proportion who has had the characteristic (the disease) during their lifetime. Seroprevalence is the proportion who has antibodies, marking earlier or current infection, i.e. a lifetime prevalence of the infection. 30 Calculating prevalence 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 A B C D E F P = 2 / 4 = 0.5 = 50% 31 Risk (R) (Incidence proportion, cumulative incidence, attack rate) The proportion of the population who gets the disease during a given time period The risk that a randomly chosen individual will get the disease during the time period R = number of new cases during the time period number of individuals in the population R = 0 to 1, or percent, per million etc., but the period must be stated 32 Incidence rate • Incidence rate is the number of new cases of a disease reported for a given population in a given time period. It refers to the fraction of a population that develops a disease in a given time or the number of new cases reported for contacting a disease or a condition during a given time period. Incidence is thus an indicator of the risk of developing some new disease or condition within a specified period of time. • The incidence and prevalence are not same and represent very different concepts. Incidence is the rate at which people contract a disease whereas prevalence represents the total number of diseased people in a population at any given time. Prevalence and incidence are demonstrated with the help of the following example 33 • Example: Let us imagine a sample population of 1000 individuals in whom we want to assess the incidence rate of developing diabetes over a period of 10 years. The individuals were followed up at three cut points of time; at the start, after 5 years and at the end of 10 years. • At the start of the study (time, t=0), there were already 100 individuals who had diabetes. • A follow up for 5 years (time, t=5) revealed that 70 more persons have contracted the disease during this period. • At the end of ten years (time, t=10), 80 more individuals have contracted the disease. • So, at the end of the study after 10 years, the total number of diabetes patients in a sample population of 1000 has been 100 + 70 + 80 = 250 cases. • Therefore, prevalence of diabetes in this sample population = 250/1000 or 0.25 or 25%. 34 Calculating risk Admission day 7 days later A B x C x D E Condition: Same follow up for all R = 2 / 5 = 0.4 = 40% 35 Attack rate (AR) • Risk during an outbreak Usually expressed for the entire epidemic period, from the first to the last case Ex: Outbreak of in March 1999 cholera in country X – Number of cases = 490 – Population at risk = 18,600 – Attack rate = 2.6% 36 Incidence rate (I) (incidence density) The speed of new cases of a disease in the population I= number of new cases in the time period sum of risk period for all individuals I = number per time unit of risk, e.g. per person year 37 Incidence rate (I) The numerator is the number of new cases in a time period The denominator is person time at risk - either the size of the population in the middle of the period (usually acceptable) - or the sum of the calculated time at risk for all the persons in the population 38 Calculating incidence rate 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Days at risk 6.0 A B x 6.0 10.0 C x D 8.5 E 5.0 Total days at risk 35.5 I = 2 / 35.5 persondays = 0.56 / 100 persondays 39 Mortality rate (M) The speed of new deaths caused by this disease in the population, i.e. the incidence of death M = number of new deaths of the disease in the period sum of risk period for all individuals M = number per time unit of risk, e.g. per person year 40 Risk versus incidence rate Risk (R) Incidence rate (I) Synonyms (incidence proportion, cumulative incidence, attack rate) (incidence density) Smallest value Greatest value 0 (or 0%) 0 1 (or 100%) ∞ Units None / person-time Why do we need measures of population health? Governments wish to monitor health of citizens – – – – – – – To set priorities for health services & policies To evaluate social and health policies To compare health of different regions To identify pressing health needs To draw attention to inequalities in health Highlight balance between length and quality of life Numerical index desirable: a “GNP of Health” 42 Classifying Population Health Measures by their Purpose 1. Descriptive measures: i. Current health status (e.g., health surveys) ii. Evaluative measures (e.g., to assess outcomes of health policies) 2. Analytic measures include an implicit time dimension: iii. Predictive methods (risk assessment; projections of disease burden) look forward; iv. Explanatory measures (income inequality or social cohesion) look backwards. 43 These purposes may correspond to different types of research Descriptive (measures of current health status) Health Services Research Evidence-based policy Evaluative (process & outcome measures) Evidence-based medicine Predictive (projection & risk estimation) Etiologic epidemiology Analytic (etiology & determinants) 44 Classifying Population Health Measures by their Focus 1. Aggregate measures combine data from individual people, summarized at regional or national levels. E.g., rates of smoking or lung cancer. 2. Environmental indicators record physical or social characteristics of the place in which people live and cover factors external to the individual, such as air or water quality, or the number of community associations that exist in a neighborhood. These can have analogues at the individual level. 3. Global indicators have no obvious analogue at the individual level. Examples include contextual indicators such as the existence of healthy public policy; laws restricting smoking in public places, or social equity in access to care; social cohesion, etc. Morgenstern H. Ecologic studies in epidemiology: concepts, principles, and methods. Annual Reviews of Public Health 1995; 16:61-81. 45 Linking the focus of a measure to its application • Aggregate measures are typically used in descriptive studies; they focus on the individuals within the population, i.e. idiographic. They measure health in the population • Environmental measures can be used in descriptive, analytic or explanatory studies • Global measures mainly used in analytic studies; focus on generating theory (nomothetic studies). They could measure health of the population 46 Aggregate Measures: Mortality-Based Indicators Life expectancy 47 Life Expectancy Life expectancy is the expected (in the statistical sense) number of years of life remaining at a given age. 48 Expectancies and Gaps 100% G 80% 60% 40% E 20% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 • From a typical survival curve, we can either consider the life expectancy (“E”), or the gap (“G”) between current life expectancy and some ideal. • Expectancies are generic; gaps can be disease-specific (e.g., life yrs lost due to cancer) 49 Aggregate Measures that Combine Mortality & Morbidity Health expectancies Health gaps 50 Composite Measures • Aim to represent overall health of a population • Composite measures combine morbidity and mortality into a health index. (An index is a numerical summary of several indicators of health) • Mortality data typically derived from life tables; morbidity indicators from health surveys, e.g. • Self-rated health • Disability or activity limitations • A generic health index 51 Sidebar: Different Types of Morbidity Scales for Use in Composite Measures • Generic instruments cover a wide range of health topics, e.g. reflecting the WHO definition. These can be health profiles (e.g., Sickness Impact Profile, SF36) or “health indexes” (e.g., Health Utilities Index, EuroQol) • Specific instruments – Disease-specific (e.g., Arthritis Impact Measurement Scale) – Age-specific (e.g., Child Behavior Checklist) – Gender-specific (e.g., Women’s Health Questionnaire) 52 Measures of Mortality Mortality Rates Infant Mortality Rate Neonatal Mortality Rate Postneonatal Mortality rate Perinatal Mortality Rate Fetal Mortality Rate Maternal Mortality Rate Death Rates Crude Death Rate Age-Specific Death Rate Cause-Specific Death Rate Age-Adjusted Death Rate 53 Chart of Early Life Mortality Measures 54 Use of Health Statistics to describe the level of community health to diagnose community ill to discover solutions to health problems and find clues for administration action to determine priorities for health programme to maintain control during execution of programme to develop procedures, classification, definitions and techniques such as recording systems, sampling schemes. etc. 55 Use of Health Statistics to promote health legislation to determine the met and unmet health needs to create administrative standards of health activities to determine success or failure of specific health programmes or undertake overall evaluation of public health work To demand public support for health work 56 Usefulness of health statistics • How many people suffer from particular diseases, how often and for how long • How fatal the different diseases are • To what extent people are prevented by these diseases from carrying on their normal activities • To what extent disease are concentrated in particular groups of the population, eg., according to age, sex, ethnic group, occupation or place of residence 57 Usefulness of health statistics • How far the above factors vary from time to time (variation according to season or from year to year • What is the effect of medical care and health services on the control of disease incidence. 58 59