Download The Greenhouse Effect

BENTLEY COLLEGE
Bentley Model United Nations Program
16th Annual BMUN High School Conference
28-31 May 2004
La Cava Campus Center
BACKGROUND PAPER AND TOPIC SUMMARY
The Greenhouse Effect
As the sun shines down on earth, solar energy arrives in the form of shortwavelength radiation. Some of this radiation is reflected away by the earth’s surface and
atmosphere, however most of it passes through to warm the earth’s surface. The earth
gets rid of the excess energy by transmitting it in the form of long wavelengths, which we
know as infra-red.
Most of the infra-red energy is absorbed by the atmosphere in water vapor, carbon
dioxide, and other greenhouse gasses. These gasses prevent the energy from passing off
the surface of the earth, into space. Many interacting processes transport the energy high
into the atmosphere. Once it reaches this point, it can slowly radiate into space.
By increasing the atmospheres’ capacity to absorb infra-red energy, greenhouse
gas emissions are affecting the way the climate maintains its’ balance between incoming
(short wave radiation) and outgoing (infra-red) energies. When we burn coal, oil, and
natural gasses we increase the amount of carbon dioxide into the air. When we engage in
deforestation, the carbon trapped in the trees escapes into the air, and other basic
activities such as raising cattle and planting rice release methane and nitrous oxide into
the atmosphere. If emissions continue to grow at the current rate, atmospheric levels of
carbon dioxide will double from pre-industrial levels during the 21st century.
The result: global warming of 1.4 to 5.8ºC over the next 100 years. That is in
addition to the .6ºC over the 20th century, at least some of which can be contributed to
greenhouse gasses.
There are many implications that can arise from global warming. Just how this
would affect us is hard to predict because the global climate is a very complicated
system. If one key aspect - such as the average global temperature - is altered, the
ramifications ripple outward. And an uncertain event can cause more uncertain events.
For example, wind and rainfall patterns that have prevailed for hundreds or thousands of
years, and on which millions of people depend may change. Sea-levels may rise and
threaten islands and low-lying coastal areas. In a world that is increasingly crowded and
under stress these extra pressures could lead directly to more famines and other
catastrophes.
At the global level, the evaporation cycle is expected to speed up which will cause
rain patterns to change and evaporation to happen faster. This would affect the moisture
levels in the soil which can be very destructive to farmers. Droughts would also become
more severe or occur more frequently which could be devastating in poorer countries
which relies heavily on clean water, which is a major threat to public health.
Climate and agricultural zones may shift towards the poles which would reduce
mid-latitude crop fields and today’s leading grain-producing areas would experience
more frequent droughts and heat waves. This would devastate food producing industries
and could cause a shortage of the world’s food supply which would raise prices and
hunger rates.
Melting glaciers and the thermal expansion of sea water may raise sea levels,
threatening low-lying coastal areas and small islands. The global mean sea level has
already risen by around 10 to 20 centimeters during the past century, and global warming
is expected to cause a further rise of 9 to 88 cm by the year 2100. The most vulnerable
land would be the unprotected, densely populated coastal regions of some of the world's
poorest countries.
The Kyoto Protocol
Negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) were completed December 11, 1997, committing the
industrialized nations to specified, legally binding reductions in emissions of six
"greenhouse gases"(carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydro-fluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur-hexafluorides). The treaty was opened for signature on
March 16, 1998 through March 16, 1999 at the United Nations Headquarters in New
York. By that date the Protocol had received 84 signatures. Those Parties that have not
yet signed the Kyoto Protocol may accede to it at any time. It does not require
developing nations to sign the treaty, but it does call on all Parties--developed and
developing--to take a number of steps to formulate national and regional programs to
improve "local emission factors," activity data, models, and national inventories of
greenhouse gas emissions and sinks that remove these gases from the atmosphere. All
Parties are also committed to formulate, publish, and update climate change mitigation
and adaptation measures, and to cooperate in promotion and transfer of environmentally
sound technologies and in scientific and technical research on the climate system.
The Convention first recognized there is a problem. It then sets an “ultimate
objective” of stabilizing “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate
system.” It then directed that “such a level should be achieved within a time frame
sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate changes, to ensure that food
production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner.”
The Convention also put a huge onus on developed nations. The reason for this is
because the largest share of historical and current emission originates in these developed
nations. They also felt that these countries should take the lead in combating climate
changes and its adverse impacts. They also recognized that poorer nations have a right to
economic development. They noted that the share of global emissions of greenhouse
gases originating in developing countries will grow as these countries expand their
industries to improve social and economic conditions for their citizens. The Convention
also noted the vulnerability of poorer countries to the effects of climate change. One of
the Convention's basic principles is that the specific needs and circumstances of
developing countries should be given "full consideration" in any actions taken. This
applies in particular to those whose fragile ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change. The Convention also recognizes that states which depend on
income from coal and oil would face difficulties if energy demand changes.
After many meetings and debates, the Convention then produced the Kyoto
Protocol. It first sets legally binding targets and timetables for cutting developed country
emissions. Second, The Protocol addresses the six main greenhouse gases, which are:
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons
(PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6 ). Third, the Protocol recognizes that emissions
cuts must be credible and verifiable. Ensuring that governments comply with their targets
will be essential to the Protocol's success. Each country will need an effective national
system for estimating emissions and confirming reductions. Standardized guidelines must
be crafted to make figures comparable from one country to the next and the whole
process transparent.
The Protocol then addresses the importance of policy making in trying to reduce
greenhouse gases. It highlights effective domestic policies and measures for reducing
emissions. National governments can build a fiscal and policy framework that
discourages emissions. They can phase out counter-productive subsidies on carbonintensive activities, and they can introduce energy-efficiency and other regulatory
standards that promote the best current and future technologies. Taxes, tradable
emissions permits, information programs, and voluntary programs can all contribute. The
Protocol also encourages governments to work together in reducing greenhouse gases.
One of the largest problems many countries such as the US have with the
Protocol, is that it places almost all the burden on developed nations. Many of the steps
to share the burden, such as assigning a national target to each country, and by offering
additional flexibility to the countries with economies in transition, don’t seem to be
relieving any of the burden.
An example of opposition to the Protocol can be seen by looking at the US. The
United States, while under the Clinton Administration signed the treaty but never sent it
to the Senate because the Senate had already voted 95-0, objecting to any treaty that
would incur new commitments by US without participation by developing countries.
In late March of 2001, the Bush Administration made a determination to consider
the Kyoto Protocol "dead" in terms of U.S. policy, and instead announced a cabinet-level
review of climate policy. Bush complained that "No one can say with any certainty what
constitutes a dangerous level of warming and therefore what level must be avoided."
Referring to "developing" countries, which include some of the world's largest
economies, such as those in China and India, the president said "We recognize the
responsibility to reduce our emissions. We also recognize the other part of the story, that
the rest of the world emits 80 percent of all greenhouse gases, and many of those
emissions come from developing countries."
The United States has made 3 arguments why they will not be a part of the Kyoto
Protocol. First, developing countries are exempted from the protocol, and it is the role of
the developed nations to take care of the global warming problem. Second, they feel
there is no scientific evidence for the claims made by the Convention and the Protocol.
Third, they feel the Protocol will hurt the United States’ economy.
Many other nations share the views of the United States. However, the European
Union is now taking steps to get the United States involved in the Protocol. There has
been a high-level effort by the European nations to re-engage the United States in the
Kyoto process. This effort was reported as having been "rebuffed" by the United States,
in favor of an effort to find new approaches, centered on market-based incentives, to
international cooperation to address climate change concerns. In response, the United
States pledged in Feb. 2002 to cut “green house gas intensity” by 18% over 10 years (the
US will cut GWG from 183 metric tons per $1 million of GDP to 151 metric tons per
$1m GDP by 2012).
The most important reason why many nations are not complying with the Kyoto
Protocol is because they feel it will interfere and hinder economic development. For
example, many developing nations who are trying to become world players are investing
great deals of money into human capital and increasing the labor force. By doing so,
more people are looking for work in factories, so due to Labor Market supply and
demand, more firms will be hiring these workers. This increases the number of
greenhouse producing factories being built and as a result increase the amount of gases
being released into the atmosphere. Also, with in increase in per capita GDP, the result
of developing nations expanding their economies, more cars and other greenhouse gas
produces are being bought and used within the countries. This also increases the amount
of gas being released into the atmosphere. Countries believe that if they must comply to
the Protocol, they won’t be able grow economically, and therefore continue to be reliant
on developed nations.
Links
http://unfccc.int/resource/convkp.html
http://www.csa.com/hottopics/ern/01jul/1-kyoto.html
http://www.public.iastate.edu/~pol_s.358/14feb.htm
http://www.energyonline.com/news/articles/f12-2warm.asp
http://www.public.iastate.edu/~pol_s.358/14feb.htm
http://www.csa.com/hottopics/ern/01jul/1-kyoto.html