Download Development of agricultural weather policy as it relates to climate

Development of agricultural
weather policy as it relates to
climate issues
Ray Motha
USDA
Introduction
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--Key Points-Sustainable agriculture
Agricultural weather & climate extremes
Agroclimatic system
Risk management
Agricultural weather policy
Background - Agriculture
• The decline of ancient civilizations in Mesopotamia, the
Mediterranean region, Pre-Columbian southwest U.S.
and Central America is believed to have been strongly
influenced by natural resource degradation from nonsustainable farming and forestry practices.
• Water is the principal resource that has helped
agriculture and society to prosper, but it has been a major
limiting factor when mismanaged.
• In drought years, limited water supplies depletes both
surface and groundwater, with major consequences.
Background - Agriculture
• Food production risen dramatically since 1940’s due to
new technologies, mechanization, pesticides and
fertilizers, seed hybrids, farm management and
government policies.
• While these changes have had many positive effects and
reduced many risks in farming, there have also been
significant costs that, if left unchecked, would cause
great harm to the natural resources and environmental
health.
• What are the vulnerable issues?
Background – Agriculture
Water Resources
• Soil moisture reserves are an essential but limiting
resource.
• Water quality involves such issues as salinization and
contamination of surface and ground waters by
pesticides and nitrates.
• Changing patterns of agriculture affect water resources
through the destruction of riparian habitats within
watersheds. The conversion of natural land to
agricultural land reduces fish and wildlife through
erosion and sedimentation, the effects of pesticides,
removal of riparian plants and the diversion of water.
Background – Agriculture
Air and Land Resources
• Many agricultural activities affect air quality.
Smoke from agricultural burning; dust from
tillage; pesticide drift from spraying; and nitrous
oxide emissions from the use of nitrogen
fertilizer all contribute to air quality.
• Soil erosion continues to be a serious threat to
the agricultural system’s ability to produce
adequate food.
Background – Agriculture
Sustainable Agriculture
• A growing movement has emerged during the
past 25 years to address these issues, and to offer
innovative and economically viable
opportunities.
• Concept of Sustainable Agriculture
Sustainable Agriculture
• Goals: environmental health; economic profitability; and
socio-economic equity.
• Principle: meet the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs.
• Stewardship of both natural and human resources is of
prime importance. Land and natural resource base needs
to be maintained or enhanced for the long term.
• A systems perspective is essential to understanding
sustainability – from the individual farm to the local
ecosystem and to communities affected by the farm.
Sustainable Agriculture
• An emphasis on a systems approach allows more
thorough interconnections between farming and other
aspects of our natural environment.
• The transition to sustainable agriculture is a process,
usually a series of small, realistic steps for farmers.
• However, it is important to note that reaching the
goal of sustainable agriculture is the responsibility of
all participants in the system.
Sustainable Agriculture –Farming
Strategies
• Drought: water conservation measures; drought-tolerant
crop species; improved crop management practices.
• Water quality: conversion of farmland to droughttolerant forages or removal from production; restoration
of wildlife habitat or use of agroforestry to minimize
impacts of salinity.
• Air Quality: incorporate crop residue into soil; reduce
tillage; plant wind breaks, crop covers and strips of
native grasses to reduce dust.
• Soil: reduce or eliminate tillage; manage irrigation to
reduce runoff; and, keep soil covered with plants
Sustainable AgriculturePlant Protection Strategies
• Selection of species and varieties well suited to site and
condition of farm, including pest-resistant crops,
topography, and climate.
• Diversified farming spreads economic risks and is less
susceptible to instability in agro-ecosystem.
• Healthy soil is a key component of sustainability; and,
proper soil, water and nutrient management can help
prevent some pest problems brought on by crop stress.
• Sustainable farmers rely on natural, renewable and onfarm inputs to develop efficient systems that do not need
high levels of input.
Sustainable AgricultureAnimal Production Practices
• Farm capabilities and constraints, including feed and
forage sources, landscape, climate and management must
be factored into livestock operations.
• Long-term carry capacity, stocking rate, and proper
grazing management are essential for both economic and
environmental impacts.
• Animal health, waste management, and surface and
ground water pollutants are growing issues of concern.
Sustainable AgricultureSummary
• By helping farmers to adopt practices that reduce
chemical use and conserve scarce resources,
sustainable agriculture research and education can
play a key role in building public support for
agricultural land preservation.
• Educating land use planners and decision-makers
about sustainable agriculture is an important priority
to promote environmentally safe farming practices,
and to protect prime farmland and wildlife preserves
from over-development.
Agricultural Weather
• While focusing on sustainable agriculture,
farmers have to cope with variable weather
throughout the growing season, extreme events
during the season, and changing climate patterns.
• Agriculture has learned to adapt to climate
variability and climate change, but past changes
have been relatively transitional.
Climate Issues
• Agriculture has developed over time in a
given region based on “normal” or average
climate conditions.
• The frequency of occurrence of extreme
climate conditions dictates the response of
agriculture to climate variability/change.
Extreme Events
Examples
• hurricane
• flood
• tornado
• drought
• heat wave/cold wave
• winter storm (ice storm)
• new max and/or min (temperature, precipitation)
Extreme Events
How can extreme events change with climate
change?
• Shift in the mean of a distribution, e.g. global warming
of 0.6oC over the past century
• Variance of the distribution – e.g. decrease in diurnal
temperature variance, increase in precipitation variance
over Sahel
• More or less skewed distribution – e.g. decrease in
weak storms, increase in stronger storms
• Increase in tropical events – e.g. Hurricane or Tropical
Cyclone
Extreme Events
Simple extremes
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higher maximum summer temperatures
more hot summer days
increase in heat index
lower minimum winter temperatures (more frost days)
more heavy 1-day precipitation events (increased intensity
of precipitation events)
• more heavy multi-day events (increased intensity of
precipitation events)
Extreme Events
Complex event-driven climate extremes
• more heat waves
• More cold waves
• more drought
• more wet spells (floods)
• more tropical storms
• more intense mid-latitude storms
• more intense ENSO events
• more common ENSO conditions
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
(GHG)
• The concentrations of CO2, CO4, N2O and CFCs have
been steadily increasing since the industrial revolution.
• Human activities are responsible for these increases,
which, in turn, impact global temperatures, precipitation
patterns and climatic variability.
• Climate change will alter agro-ecosystem.
• Agriculture can reduce the net GHG emissions that
cause climate change by: storing carbon in the soils and
plants; reducing emissions from livestock operations;
and, more efficient use of fertilizers.
GHG- Carbon Sequestration
• Management practices: Conservation tillage/no-till for
row crops; reduce summer fallow for wheat; increase
winter cover crops; improver water& nutrient use;
rotational grazing/improved grazing crops; conversion
of marginal croplands to grassland, forests, or wetlands.
• In addition to storing carbon in plant materials and in
soil, greater benefits to these management practices
include: improved soil fertility & productivity; reduced
soil erosion; improved water quality; and improved
wildlife habitat.
Agroclimatic System
Objective
• Incorporates the physical properties of the atmosphereland surface (vegetation) and hydrology interactions into
the planning and management of agricultural (food and
fiber) products.
• The objective of a such a system is to achieve a
sustainable, optimized production level through the use
of weather and climate information, while maintaining
the environmental integrity and minimizing the
degradation of the soil, nutrient and water resource base.
• Technology (fertilizers, new seed varieties, farming
practices) is to be used to boost production as long as it
is not detrimental to the resource base in the long term.
Agroclimatic System
Requirements
• A climatic observation system—state of weather
• A biological and geophysical monitoring system—state
of land surface, soil, and vegetation
• An assessment system for land- and water-use strategies
• A data processing and information dissemination
system to guide both operational and planning decisions
• A research component to establish or improve relations
of weather and climate to soil and hydrology for various
crop varieties.
Agroclimatic System
Communication of Information
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Information for farmers/local decision makers:
Advisories on planting/harvesting dates etc.
Disease reports, spraying advisories
Irrigation scheduling
Media reporting (telephone, newspaper, radio,
TV, mail, Internet) of forecasts and advisories
Agroclimatic System
Communication of Information
• Information for government/agro-business:
• Land use planning, agricultural management
strategies
• Water resource management
• Depletion/erosion of soil resources, economic
evaluation of impact on yield
A Call To Action
• Recognition of the urgent need for a
comprehensive strategy to focus on climate
change/variability, involving the combined
efforts of federal, university and research
institutions.
• Recognition of the urgent need for proactive
planning activities rather than reactive
response measures.
Agroclimatic Risk Management
Plan
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Vulnerability Analyses
Impact Assessments
Mitigation Planning
Adaptation Strategies
Adaptation Strategies
1. Adaptation measures are assessed in a developmental
context.
2. Adaptation to short-term climate variability and
extreme events are explicitly included as a step toward
reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change
3. Adaptation occurs at all levels, ranging from local to
national and international levels.
4. Equal importance is placed on both the adaptation
strategy and the process needed for its implementation .
Integrated Climate Risk
Management
• Preparedness to improve the effectiveness of response
and recovery, such as establishing early-warning
systems.
• Mitigation measures to prevent or reduce the impact of a
catastrophic event prior to its occurrence.
• Adaptation strategies to prepare for and minimize the
potential impacts of climate variability and climate
change.
Agricultural Weather and
Climate Policy
• Develop an agricultural weather and climate
policy with preparedness as its foundation (concept
similar to U.S. National Drought Policy).
• Outline a course of action that includes a
preparedness initiative to help reduce the
economic hardships caused by extreme climate
events.
Agricultural Weather and
Climate Policy
• Recommending a paradigm shift in policy
from “Response” to “Readiness”.
• Goal: Reduce the impacts of climate
variability and change on the agricultural
sector.
• Objective: Preparedness must become the
cornerstone of an agricultural weather and
climate policy.
Agricultural Weather and
Climate Policy
• Preparedness is the key to a
proactive policy.
Agricultural Weather and
Climate Policy
• GOAL 1:
• Incorporate planning, implementation of
plans and proactive mitigation measures, risk
management, resource stewardship,
environmental considerations, and public
education as the key elements of an effective
agricultural weather and climate policy.
Agricultural Weather and
Climate Policy
• GOAL 2:
• Improve collaboration among scientists and
managers to enhance the effectiveness of
observation networks, monitoring,
prediction, information delivery, and
applied research, and, to foster public
understanding of and preparedness for
climate variability and change.
Agricultural Weather and
Climate Policy
• Implementation Process:
- Sustainable agriculture objectives;
- Vulnerability assessments;
- Potential climate variability/change analyses;
- Agroclimatic system requirements;
- Adaptation strategies.
Summary
• Developing an agricultural weather and
climate policy that addresses climate issues
for policy makers and scientists would aid
risk management, conservation of natural
resources, and mitigation of climate
variability/change.
• A win-win scenario!
THANK YOU