Download Libya - Eacea

LIBYA
Union for the Mediterranean country fiche
July 2013
Contents
Key demographic and economic characteristics ..................................................................................3
Main political and social developments ................................................................................................4
Education and training outcomes .........................................................................................................4
Labour market trends and challenges ..................................................................................................5
Employment policy measures ...............................................................................................................6
LIBYA | 02
LIBYA: UNION FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN
COUNTRY FICHE
Key demographic and economic characteristics
Libya is a large country with a population of 6,422,772 (2011). The density of the population is about
50 people per km² in the two northern regions of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, but it falls to less than one
person per km² elsewhere. 90% of the population lives in less than 10% of the country, primarily along
the coast. About 88% of the population lives in urban areas, concentrated in the four largest cities:
1
Tripoli, Benghazi, Misrata and Bayda .
The population growth rate has declined over the last years from an annual growth of 2.17% in 2007
to 1.06% in 2011. However, the high growth rate of the 90’s and 2000’s has created high demographic
pressure with under-15s forming almost 30% of the population. This in turn requires significant public
investment in education, health, employment, housing and infrastructure. The share of the working2
age population (15-64) is still increasing (65%) while the share of 65+ is marginal (4.88%) in 2009 .
2
Libya with its 1,750,000 km of land and 1,700 km of coast is one of Africa’s main hubs for irregular
migrants, especially those en route to Europe. A rich country with high oil revenues, it is an attractive
destination for workers from neighbouring Arab states and job-seekers from poverty-stricken and
unstable sub-Saharan countries on its southern borders. Libyan foreign policy during the late 80’s and
the 90’s encouraged irregular African and Arab workers to go to Libya. Their presence was
3
permissible. However, official statistics on the number of immigrants in Libya have been continuously
manipulated and used by the Libyan government according to its changing (national and international)
political and economic interests.
Before the crisis, the most quoted figure was that 600,000 regular migrants were present in Libya plus
between 750,000 and 1.2 million irregular foreign workers, as provided by official Libyan authorities to
the European Commission delegation in 2004 (EC, 2005). More recently (28 March 2011), the
International Organisation for Migration (IOM) estimated the total number of foreign nationals living in
Libya before the crisis at 2.5 million including 1 million Egyptians, 80,000 Pakistanis, 59,000
Sudanese, 63,000 Bangladeshis, 26,000 Filipinos, 10,500 Vietnamese and ‘a large population of SubSaharan Africans mainly from Niger, Chad, Mali, Nigeria and Ghana’ (IOM, 2011).
In terms of economic development, GDP annual growth averaged 8% from 2000 to 2011 and it
reached 122% in 2012 following a fall of 60% in 2011 as reported by the Central Bank of Libya. Libya
is one of the most hydrocarbon-dependent countries. Its economy has been dominated for a long time
by the oil and gas industry accounting for more than 70% of GDP, more than 95% of exports and
4
approximately 90% of government revenue . A major economic issue for the Libyan government is the
diversification of the economy through the development of tourism and trade, taking advantage of its
rich archaeological sites, Mediterranean climate and proximity to Europe. Consequently, the share of
1
No complete population or vital statistics registration exists in Libya. The estimates are from the 2010 Revision of the World
Population Prospects which was prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the
United Nations Secretariat, unless otherwise indicated.
2
World Development Indicators (WDI) at: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators/
3
There is a clear issue of data availability and reliability in Libya and it is very difficult to get accurate and reliable statistics as
the previous regime is not used to collecting data on the labour market and (un)employment.
4
International Monetary Fund (2012), Libya beyond the revolution: challenges and opportunities.
LIBYA | 03
other sectors in GDP remains quite low: 6.3% for manufacturing, 2.7% for agriculture, 8.7% for
wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants and 8.4% for finance, real estate and the business
sector. In spite of the low share of agriculture in GDP, it accounts for 6% of the workforce, employing
5
more workers than the oil industry . Due to the high oil revenues, the country has one of the highest
GDP per capita rates in the region (16,854 USD in 2009) (World Bank, WDI).
Main political and social developments
6
In July 2012, a new General National Congress (GNC) was elected. These elections are the first
elections of any kind held in Libya since 1965, but most importantly they are the first elections since
the overthrow of Gaddafi, Libya’s long time authoritarian ruler, in the Libyan Revolution/civil war in
2011. One of the major tasks of the GNC is to draft a constitution and ensure a peaceful political
transition while maintaining macro-economic stability. However, the recent enactment of ‘political
isolation law’ – which banned all the high-level public figures who had kept posts during the Gaddafi
regime since 1969 from running in the elections and taking high level public posts, led to intense
debate in the country, with the risk of losing the limited human resources available in the
reconstruction of the country.
In terms of human development, the high revenue from hydrocarbon exports allowed the Gaddafi
regime to improve the Libyan quality of life as evidenced by the high Human Development Index.
Libya ranked 64 in 2011 with a HDI of 0.76 compared to 0.644 for Egypt (113th) and 0.698 for Tunisia
(94th) as its immediate neighbours.
This high performance is primarily explained by the good performance in terms of education and
health (at least quantitatively) and high GDP per capita income from oil. The expected years of
schooling for children under 7 (16.6) is very high, while the average years of schooling for 15+
population is 7.3 years. The adult literacy rate (89.2%) is also high and the budget allocated to the
education sector is substantial (public expenditure on education: 7.1% in 2011). As for health,
according to World Health Organisation data, Libya spent 270 USD per capita on health care in 2006
(2.9% of GDP), a figure that is above average for the region but low compared to countries with similar
incomes similar.
In terms of gender equality the country is performing better than most of its neighbours. Indeed the
Gender Inequality Index was 0.31 which is quite good compared to other countries in the region
(Morocco 0.51; Algeria 0.41; Jordan 0.46). Only Tunisia performs better (0.29). Finally, 33 women
have been elected to the General National Congress, representing 16.5% of the 200-member
transitional authority.
Education and training outcomes
Libya is performing well in terms of enrolment in education. Indeed, adult literacy levels are among the
highest in the region. The primary gross enrolment rate is 110% and the secondary gross enrolment
rate is 94%, the highest in the region. The same is true for tertiary education with a gross enrolment
rate of 55.8%, though the reliability of these figures must be taken with caution.
The quality of education however, remains poor. Libya was ranked 128th for primary education and
138th for higher education and tertiary education out of 139 countries by the global competitiveness
5
Figures of 2010. African economic outlook 2011. Libya. AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA.
6
The new GNC has 200 members. The elections used a parallel voting system with an individual-based system and a party listbased system.
LIBYA | 04
7
report of 2010. Many obstacles negatively impact the quality of the education sector. Some reports
have pointed to the absence of appropriately resourced science laboratories restricting the possibilities
of conducting modern science lessons, the absence of practical learning and the reliance on theory
and book learning.
The TVET system comprises three types of school:
■
intermediate institutes offering three-year programmes to students aged 15 and above and who
hold the compulsory basic school certificate;
■
higher institutes offering courses to students aged 18 and above and who hold the secondary
school certificate;
■
technical colleges offering courses to students aged 18 and above who finished secondary school
certificate with higher grade.
There are 381 intermediate centres, 91 higher institutes and 16 technical colleges. The total enrolment
in TVET institutions is 165,916 students: 85,740 in the intermediate institutes, 66,457 in the high
8
institutes and 13,719 in the technical colleges .
For a long time, TVET has been considered a path for absorbing low performing students both from
basic and secondary education. Its low quality and its irrelevance to the needs of the Libyan economy
are the result of the absence of clear mechanisms to analyse labour market needs and consequently
align education and training provision. The participation of, or consultation with labour market actors is
minimal. No systematic approaches or actions that aim to reduce the gap between the supply and
demand of skills are implemented.
The absence of structured information on labour market needs has led to the implementation of
courses in vocational schools based more on the availability of equipment and teacher qualifications
than on the actual needs.
Labour market trends and challenges
The Libyan economy was, and to a large extent still is, a state-driven economy with most jobs in the
9
public sector which absorbs up to 70% of the formal workforce . The private sector employs only
around 4% of the labour force. Almost 120,000 Libyans are self-employed, which includes the informal
sector. The lure of public sector employment influences the return to general education, leaving the
TVET sector as more of a second choice for parents and students. The oil revenues allowed the
government to rely on foreign workers to meet the skills requirements of the labour market. The total
10
number of foreign workers was estimated at 2 million before the revolution.
It is quite difficult to provide a sound analysis of the trends and challenges facing the Libyan labour
market due to the unavailability of data and indicators such as unemployment rate, unemployment by
gender, etc. Currently there is no labour force survey conducted in the country and the Libyan labour
market information system is very limited. The need to strengthen the accuracy, availability and
reliability of labour market indicators as well as the supply and demand of skills are obvious.
7
Challenges for Education and Employability. GIZ 2011
8
Figures provided by the Chairman of the TVET board during a presentation made at the regional expert meeting on TVET in
the Arab States, Muscat Sultanate of Oman, 17-19 March 2012.
9
Socialist People’s Libyan Jamahiriya. Country Economic Report. World Bank. July 2006.
10
Socialist People’s Libyan Jamahiriya. Country Economic Report. World Bank. July 2006.
LIBYA | 05
According to the ILO Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM), activity and employment rates
remain quite high compared to other countries of the region (53.4% and 49.2% respectively in 2011).
They remain low for females (30.4% and 26.3%). Outside the government-dominated education and
defence sectors, the sector with the highest promise of employment is wholesale and retail, which
employs around 80,000 Libyans. The construction sector also appears promising in the medium-term,
although it only employs around 35,000 Libyans. Finally, the manufacturing sector, which has
benefited from a recent government diversification strategy, employs 50,000 Libyans.
As for unemployment, many reports from international organisations mention an unemployment rate of
30%. This high level is combined with a high number of expatriate skilled and less skilled workers.
This paradox is the result of a combination of factors. The first is related to the mismatch between the
education and training system and the needs of the labour market evidenced among others by the
high unemployment rate of university graduates. In the World Bank’s 2011 Libya Investment Climate
Survey, 30% of firms reported that they were unable to find enough workers with the necessary
11
skills . The second factor is linked to the position of the public sector in the economy that has a huge
influence on the labour market. The wages and generous non-wage benefits offered by this sector
have resulted in unrealistic wage expectations from job seekers and graduates from universities and
TVET schools. The last factor is the unwillingness of Libyans to undertake manual work, as shown by
the high number of unskilled migrant workers and the extent of the unfinished construction work in
Tripoli (more than a year after the revolution).
12
According to the African Development Bank , formal employment in Libya consists of 43,000 people
in the oil sector, but 840,000 in public services. The energy sector contributes 60% of Libya's GDP but
employs only 3% of the formal workforce. Public services, including healthcare and education employ
51% of the formal workforce, but only contribute 9% to GDP. The country's informal economy provides
as much as 30-40% of official GDP, while formal employment is marred by ‘welfare employment’ −
one third of the country's 200,000 primary school teachers and 30,000 nurses on government payrolls
are inactive, but enjoy monthly salaries. At the same time there is massive over-employment,
estimated at 30-40% in the banking sector, hotels and utility companies.
The Libyan economy will not be able to create enough jobs unless structural reforms are implemented
to support private sector growth and economic diversification. Such reforms encompass a clear
system of property rights and contract enforcement, mechanisms to avoid anti-competitive behaviour,
ways to promote trust and cooperation, and social and political institutions that can mitigate social
conflict. For the time being Libya will rely on migrant workers to remedy the incapacity of its education
system to provide Libyans with the right skills and their unwillingness to undertake certain jobs.
Employment policy measures
The current Libyan government is prioritising de-mobilised fighters in need of training and jobs for
employment measures. Active labour market programmes and employment measures only started
after 2011. They are implemented by the Ministry of Labour and the Warrior Affairs Commission
(WAC).
The Ministry of Labour is offering three types of course to jobseekers:
■
an “orientation” course focusing on communication skills and on how to search for a job;
■
a “foundation” course focusing on ICT, foreign languages and soft skills;
11
Libya Investment Climate, World Bank, 2011, p. 61.
12
Economic brief – Libya: post-war conflict challenges, September 2011.
LIBYA | 06
■
a “VET” course for technical skills.
The initial target number of beneficiaries was estimated at 25,000.
The Warrior Affairs Commission (WAC) set up in 2012 as part of the Prime Minister’s office provides
support to former fighters to facilitate their integration into the labour market. It targets 145,000
demobilised fighters through three main programmes.
1.
IFAD (which means ‘sending’) targets former fighters who want to continue their higher
education abroad. 18,000 students will be sent abroad over a period of 4 to 5 years, although the
programme faces the dual challenges of high participant expectations and a lack of (English)
language skills.
2.
KADER (able) targets former fighters without any skills or qualifications and aims to get them a
place on a vocational training course. 28,000 people are targeted and again the intention is to
send them abroad.
3.
TAMOUH (ambitious) is about supporting former fighters to set up their own businesses. The
programme is hoping to offer support to 5,000 people.
WAC seems to be developing these programmes separately with limited coordination with other
governmental institutions. All of the programmes are either still being designed or at an early stage of
implementation. As such there is no information available yet on their impact.
Along with these programmes there are other policies which influence labour market dynamics such
as the minimum wage (LYD 450) implemented since 2009 in all sectors, unemployment support
(LYD 500) paid for one unemployed person per family, or the obligation on foreign companies to have
at least 20% of their workforce made up of Libyan nationals.
LIBYA | 07