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Literature and documentation search
for food security under global pressure
The issues of institutions we have analysed:
European Union:
 European Council
 European Commission
OECD
FAO
United Kingdom:
 BIS-Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Foresight
 DEFRA
 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food
Security
 Global Food Security
USA:
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
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The White House
AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science
USDA
Center for Sustainable Systems
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
Schweiz:
 SBV Schweizerischer Bauernverband
Definition of Key Terms:
Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or
changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates
negative effects.
Resilience: A capability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover
from significant multihazard threats with minimum damage to social wellbeing, the economy, and the environment.
Risk: A combination of the magnitude of the potential consequence(s) of
climate change impact(s) and the likelihood that the consequence(s) will
occur.
Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to
cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability
and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and
rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and
its adaptive capacity.
Source: National Research Council. 2011. America’s Climate Choices
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European Union:
 European Council
 European Commission
European Council (2010):
Project Europe 2030; Challenges and Opportunities
A report to the European Council by the Reflection Group on the future of
the EU 2030
Looking to the 2030 horizon, Europeans will need a highly competitive and
social market economy in order to maintain social cohesion and fight
against climate change. The European Union needs to implement a
common energy policy with both internal and external dimensions that will
allow achieving greater energy efficiency and savings, and diversifying the
energy supplies from third countries. The European Union must continue
leading the fight against climate change, in order to be more effective and
relevant in the merging world order. By 2030 world energy requirements
are likely to be 50 % higher than today, with fossil fuels representing
80 % of supply. Dependence on energy imports is set to increase, with the
European Union importing nearly two thirds of its needs. In addition, the
availability of energy and other essential resources is likely to be
adversely affected by climate change and many predict severe shortages
by 2030. The challenges we face today are different to those of the past
and call for different responses, whether we look at climate change or
energy shortages.
Commission of the European Communities (2010):
Communication from the Commission: ”EUROPE 2020”
A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth
Europe faces a moment of transformation. The world is moving fast and
long-term challenges (globalisation, pressure on resources, aging)
intensify. The European Union must now take charge of its future. EUROPE
2020 sets out a vision of Europe`s social market economy for the
21st century. Europe 2020 puts forward three mutually reinforcing
priorities:
 Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and
innovation,
 Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener
and more competitive economy,
 Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering
social and territorial cohesion.
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Commission of the European Communities (2010):
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the
Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee
of the Regions:
The CAP towards 2020: Meeting the food, natural resources and territorial
challenges of the future
The Common Agricultural Policy is confronted with a set of challenges,
some unique in nature, some unforeseen, that invite the European Union
to make a strategic choice for the long-term future of its agriculture and
rural areas.
In broad term, the views expressed recommended three strategic aims:
 To preserve the food production potential on a sustainable basis
throughout the European Union, so as to guarantee long term-food
security for European citizens and to contribute to growing world
food demand, expected by the FAO to increase by 70 % by 2050.
Recent incidents of increased market instability, often exacerbated
by climate change, further highlight these trends and pressures.
Europe´s capacity to deliver food security is an important long term
choice for Europe which cannot be taken for granted.
 To support farming communities that provide European citizens with
quality, value and diversity of food produced sustainable, in line with
our environmental, water, animal health and public health
requirements. The active management of natural resources by
farming is one important tool to maintain the rural landscape, to
combat biodiversity loss and contributes to mitigate and to adapt to
climate change. This is an essential basis for dynamic territories and
long term economic viability.
 To maintain viable rural communities, for whom farming is an
important economic activity creating local employment, this delivers
multiple economic, social, environmental and territorial benefits.
A significant reduction in local production would also have
implications with regards to greenhouse gases (GHG) characteristic
local landscapes as well as more limited choice for consumer.
Commission of the European Communities (2009):
White Paper
Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action
Addressing climate change requires two types of response. Firstly, and
importantly, we must reduce our greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
(i.e. take mitigation action) and secondly we must take adaptation action
to deal with the unavoidable impacts.
This White Paper sets out a framework to reduce the EU’s vulnerability to
the impact of climate change. It builds on the wide-ranging consultation
launched in 2007 by the Green Paper on Adapting to Climate Change in
Europe and further research efforts that identified action to be taken in
the short-term. The framework is designed to evolve as further evidence
becomes available. It will complement action by Member States and
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support wider international efforts to adapt to climate change, particularly
in developing countries. Climate change will impact a number of sectors.
In agriculture projected climatic changes will affect crop yields, livestock
management and the location of production.
The increasing likelihood and severity of extreme weather events will
considerably increase the risk of crop failure.
Climate change will also affect soil by depleting organic matter – a major
contributor to soil fertility.
Consideration should be given to the CAP providing an adequate
framework for sustainable production, thereby enabling the agricultural
sector to deal with the challenges posed by changing climatic conditions.
This will involve, inter alia, assessing which water quantity and quality
requirements should be further integrated into relevant CAP instruments
as well as improving the efficiency of water use by agriculture especially in
water stress regions. A reflection on possible support for farms which are
particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change could also be
undertaken. Further details are provided in a specific working document
on agriculture and adaptation to climate change. In any case, the possible
contribution of the CAP to adaptation to climate change will also have to
be examined in the context of the review of the CAP after 2013.
Actions to be taken (by EU and Member States):
 Ensure that measures for adaptation and water management are
embedded in rural development national strategies and programmes
for 2007-2013,
 Consider how adaptation can be integrated into the 3 strands of
rural development and give adequate support for sustainable
production including how the CAP contributes to the efficient use of
water in agriculture,
 Examine the capacity of the Farm Advisory System to reinforce
training, knowledge and adoption of new technologies that facilitate
adaptation,
 Update forestry strategy and launch debate on options for an
EU approach on forest protection and forest information systems.
Commission of the European Communities (2007):
Green Paper from the Commission to the European Parliament, the
Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee
of the Regions:
Adapting to climate change in Europe – options for EU action
This Green Paper examines climate change impacts in Europe, the case for
action and policy responses in the EU. It focuses on the role of the EU, but
takes account of the prominent role of Member State, regional and local
authorities in any efficient adaptation strategy. As the adaptation
challenge is global by its very nature, the Green Paper also raises the
external dimension and looks at adaptation measures in Europe that could
also apply to other parts of the world, and the opportunity for the EU to
provide international leadership in this area.
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The European Union has to take on the challenge of adaptation, working in
partnership with its Member States and globally with partner countries.
A European approach is necessary to ensure proper coordination and the
efficiency of policies that address the impacts of climate change.
Adaptation actions must be consistent with mitigation actions and vice
versa.
Commission of the European Communities (2007):
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the
Council:
Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European
Union
This Communication identifies a first set of policy options with a view to
opening up a wide-ranging debate on how to adapt to water scarcity and
droughts, two phenomena that could potentially increase in a context of
climate change.
Access to good quality water in sufficient quantity is fundamental to the
daily lives of every human being and to most economic activities. But
water scarcity and droughts have now emerged as a major challenge –
and climate change is expected to make matters worse. This is a
worldwide problem, and the European Union is not spared.
Over the past thirty years, droughts have dramatically increased in
number and intensity in the EU. The number of areas and people affected
by droughts went up by almost 20% between 1976 and 2006. One of the
most widespread droughts occurred in 2003 when over 100 million people
and a third of the EU territory were affected. Recent trends show a
significant extension of water scarcity across Europe. Water scarcity and
droughts are have a direct impact on citizens and economic sectors which
use and depend on water, such as agriculture, tourism, industry, energy
and transport. In particular, hydropower which is a
carbon neutral source of energy heavily depends on water availability.
Water scarcity and droughts also have broader impacts on natural
resources at large through negative side-effects on biodiversity, water
quality, increased risks of forest fires and soil impoverishment.
In a context where changes in climate are foreseen in spite of significant
EU mitigation efforts, this trend is expected to continue and even worsen,
as underscored in the recently adopted Commission Green Paper on
adaptation to climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, climate change would bring water scarcity to between
1.1 and 3.2 billion people if temperatures rose by 2 to 3° C. Drought
affected areas are likely to increase in extent. In these circumstances, it
has become an EU priority to devise effective drought risk management
strategies.
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European Commission (2010):
GREEN PAPER
On Forest Protection and Information in the EU:
Preparing forests for climate change
Forests have developed together with the naturally changing climate over
the millennia. As climate shifted slowly, and the natural environment
presented few barriers, species and communities could adapt and evolve
more easily. Most EU forest management is aimed at developing forests
that are well adapted to local growing conditions. However the rapid rate
of human-induced climate change is now overcoming the natural ability of
ecosystems to adapt. The rate of temperature increase is unprecedented.
A fragmented landscape, often simplified forest composition and structure
and pressures such as forest dieback, new pests and storms make
autonomous forest adaptation much more difficult. Therefore, increased
human intervention regarding species choice and management techniques
is likely to be required to maintain viable forest cover and continuity of all
forest functions. Some regions may experience more favourable conditions
for forest growth in the medium term. Mean temperatures in Europe have
now risen by almost 1°C during the past century and are expected to
climb further, the most optimistic scenario forecasting an increase of 2° C
by 2100. A change of this magnitude corresponds to the difference in the
temperature optimum of forest types as different as spruce versus beech
forest or beech versus oak stands. It will thus alter the suitability of whole
regions for certain forest types, forcing a shift in natural species
distribution and leading to changes in growth of existing stands. In
addition extreme events (storms, forest fires, droughts and heat waves)
are expected to become much more common and/or severe. Even without
climate change, the capacity of forests to carry out their functions has
always been under pressure from various natural hazards. While it is clear
that in general climate change exacerbates such hazards, it is impossible
to accurately quantify how much impact is due only to climate change
compared to historical levels. For this reason, the impacts on forest
functions from both endemic and climate change causes are considered as
a whole.
Commission of the European Communities (2012):
Report from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the
European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the
Regions
“The implementation of the Soil Thematic Strategy and ongoing activities”
The report provides an overview of the implementation of the Thematic
Strategy for Soil Protection since its adoption in September 2006. The
objective of the Strategy is to protect the soil while using it sustainably,
through the prevention of further degradation, the preservation of soil
function and the restoration of degraded soils. The report also presents
current soil degradation trends both in Europe and globally, as well as
future challenges to ensure protection. The Soil Thematic Strategy has
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acted as an important driver for numerous soil awareness raising tools
and networks that have been developed in Member States, including the
European Network for Soil Awareness.
Commission of the European Communities (2012):
Assessing Agriculture Vulnerabilities for the design of Effective Measures
for Adaption to Climate Change (AVEMAC project)
This study was carried out by the European Commission's Joint Research
Centre
The motivation of this study has been the lack of information on
vulnerabilities, risks, and needs for the adaptation of European agriculture
under a changing climate in the next decades.
Eventually the results of this study shall help the formulation of
appropriate policy options and the development of adequate policy
instruments to support the adaptation to climate change of the EU
agricultural sector.
The analysis of vulnerability, which integrates results from both the
bio-physical simulations and the agro-climatic indicators, provides an
indication of which regions may expect potentially significant production
changes by the time horizons of 2020 and 2030.
The analyses of this study must be considered as a first step only, since
they have neither included adaptation nor a bio-economic evaluation of
estimated vulnerabilities. Therefore main aspects of and requirements for
a possible future integrated analysis at EU27 level to address climate
change and agriculture with the target of providing policy support,
including relevant workflows, are presented.
Commission of the European Communities (2007):
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector
AGRI-2006-G4-05
Climate change is already happening. Regardless of international progress
to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change,
the climate system will continue to adjust for the next few decades to past
and present emissions. This will bring unavoidable impacts on natural and
human systems, presenting the challenge of a second response to climate
change - adaptation - to prepare for and cope with these impacts.
Climate change is a real concern for the sustainable development of
agriculture, both globally and within the EU. Although agriculture is a
complex and highly evolved sector, it is still directly dependent on climate,
since heat, sunlight and water are the main drivers of crop growth. While
some aspects of climate change such as longer growing seasons and
warmer temperatures may bring benefits, there will also be a range of
adverse impacts, including reduced water availability and more frequent
extreme weather. These impacts may put agricultural activities, certainly
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at the level of individual land managers and farm estates, at significant
risk.
This study on ‘Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector’
aims to provide the European Commission with an improved
understanding of the potential implications of climate change and
adaptation options for European agriculture, covering the EU 27 Member
States. It also aims to assist policy makers as they take up the adaptation
challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector
to climate change.
Commission of the European Communities (2012):
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the
Council on the European Innovation Partnership 'Agricultural Productivity
and Sustainability'
World food demand is expected to increase by 70% by 2050 (FAO). The
dramatic increase in global food demand will be accompanied by a steep
increase in the demand for feed, fibre, biomass, and biomaterial. This will
inevitably trigger a supply reaction from Union's agriculture which is one
of the biggest suppliers to global agricultural markets. Union agriculture
accounts for 18% of world food exports, worth € 76 billion. In production
values, Union agriculture provides more than 40% of total food production
in the OECD.
A shift towards a different growth path is needed in order to establish a
competitive and sustainable production of food, feed, fibre, biomass and
biomaterial. To achieve this, efficiency in supply must be complemented
by a reduction in the dramatic post-harvest losses. It must likewise
include adaptation to climate change and the wise use of biodiversity and
restoration of ecosystems and ecosystem services; it must build upon the
particularities of each territory and the potential offered by genetic
diversity so that we combine our rich genetic base with diverse
agricultural practices, new and old, and ensure better allocation and use
of our limited resources. Food chains are diverse and their specificities
must be integrated: "Long" supply chains involve aspects such as
conservation and storage, while "short" supply chains place the emphasis
on the local provision of food and particular quality attributes. Consumers
must be at the heart of all this, so as to steer production towards safe,
high quality and sustainably produced food.
Increased and sustainable agricultural output will be achievable only with
major research and innovation efforts at all levels.
Increased productivity and competitiveness of agriculture calls, first of all,
for improved resource efficiency in order to produce with less water,
energy, fertilisers (especially phosphorus and nitrogen), and pesticides. It
requires also the increased use of renewable energy sources and a
reduction of waste, in line with the orientations given by the 'Roadmap to
a Resource efficient Europe'. Sustainability requires pollution reduction, to
protect water quality and soil functionality, the preservation of biodiversity
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and ecosystem services, as well as a reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions.
Sustainable production must integrate input and output substitution by
the smart use and recycling of bio-mass and bio-refinery; and it needs to
reduce post-harvest losses. The challenge exists for the whole supply
chain from primary production up to the consumer. Consumers can
alleviate pressures for more primary production by changing consumption
patterns. Education and training offer a huge potential for enhancing
nutrition, healthy lifestyles, and reducing food wastage. Sustainability
criteria, established at pivotal points throughout the supply chain, would
contribute to increasing transparency, trust, and knowledge.
In order to make the increase in agricultural productivity and output
sustainable, natural resources must be well managed, in line with
environmental requirements. Land will be particularly important, as this is
the medium where the success or failure in moving towards more
sustainable patterns of production will be observed. Land is the essential
resource for agricultural production. Land use interacts in multiple ways
with water quality and quantity, biodiversity, and the provision of ecosystem services. Climate change places emphasis on soil as a particularly
vulnerable resource. Soil functions including the stability of soils, the soil
water cycle, the nutrient buffering capacity, and the soil biotic integrity
are essential parameters of land productivity. Its function as a carbon sink
gives soil a key role in climate change mitigation. Appropriate land
management must prevent soil degradation and erosion, stabilise soil
functions, and address climate change mitigation and adaptation.
European Commission, Informal Ministerial Roundtable on Climate Change
(2012):
Climate change and access to Energy:
a priority for EU development policy
Climate change, green economy and sustainability are at the core of our
new blueprint to guide our development policy, our so-called Agenda for
Change. Sustainability is a recurring theme in the Agenda for Change and
will help us set about meeting the challenges we face as we seek to make
EU development cooperation deliver more and better results.
In the Agenda for Change we have identified two areas for intensified
cooperation, because of the challenge they represent for developing
countries, but also because of their potential as catalysts for sustainable
growth. Moreover, both areas have implications for climate change.
The first area is agriculture
Agriculture can be deeply affected by climate change; this represents an
additional challenge for our partners, not only in terms of food and
nutrition security but also as regards efficient management of precious
natural resources or even sometimes conflict prevention. Adaptation to
climate change in the agriculture sector and efforts to secure a sustainable
path for agriculture are therefore crucial.
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Looked at the other way round, agriculture also has the potential to
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Good practices can contribute to
higher carbon stocks and lower emissions.
We will therefore ensure that agriculture receives greater attention in
future strategies
The second area is energy
Energy is key to enabling people to pull themselves out of poverty. In
short, the link between energy access and development is undeniable.
That is one basic reason why the EU has fully signed up to the UN
Secretary-General's Sustainable Energy for All initiative, and hope to see
it fully endorsed by the Rio+20 Summit. But there is another reason:
namely our belief that the EU has a huge contribution to make in bringing
the Sustainable Energy for All initiative to life.
Commission of the European Communities (2011):
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the
Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee
of the Regions
Energy Roadmap 2050
In this Energy Roadmap 2050 the Commission explores the challenges
posed by delivering the EU's decarbonisation objective while at the same
time ensuring security of energy supply and competitiveness.
The task of developing post-2020 strategies is urgent. Energy investments
take time to produce results. In this decade, a new investment cycle is
taking place, as infrastructure built 30-40 years ago needs to be replaced.
Acting now can avoid costly changes in later decades and reduces lock-in
effects. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has shown the critical role
of governments and underlined the need for urgent action; with the
scenarios of the Energy Roadmap 2050 different possible pathways for
Europe are analysed more in depth.
Forecasting the long-term future is not possible.
The scenarios in this Energy Roadmap 2050 explore routes towards
decarbonisation of the energy system. All imply major changes in, for
example, carbon prices, technology and networks. A number of scenarios
to achieve an 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions implying some
85 % decline of energy-related CO2 emissions including from transport,
have been examined.
The scenario analysis undertaken is of an illustrative nature, examining
the impacts, challenges and opportunities of possible ways of modernizing
the energy system. They are not "either-or" options but focus on the
common elements which are emerging and support longer-term
approaches to investments.
The energy sector produces the lion's share of man-made greenhouse gas
emissions. Therefore, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 by over
80 % will put particular pressure on energy systems.
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Its policy should not develop in isolation but take account of international
developments, for example relating to carbon leakage and adverse effects
on competitiveness. A potential trade-off between climate change policies
and competitiveness continues to be a risk for some sectors especially in a
perspective of full decarbonisation if Europe was to act alone. Europe
cannot alone achieve global decarbonisation. The overall cost of
investment depends strongly on the policy, regulatory and socio-economic
framework and the economic situation globally. As Europe has a strong
industrial base and needs to strengthen it, the energy system transition
should avoid industry distortions and losses especially since energy
remains an important cost factor for industry.
Commission of the European Communities (2011):
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the
Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee
of the Regions
Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe
Over the 20th century, the world increased its fossil fuel use by a factor of
12, whilst extracting 34 times more material resources. Today in the EU,
each person consumes 16 tonnes of materials annually, of which 6 tonnes
are wasted, with half going to landfill. Trends show, however, that the era
of plentiful and cheap resources is over. Businesses are facing rising costs
for essential raw materials and minerals, their scarcity and price volatility
are having a damaging effect on the economy. Sources of minerals,
metals and energy, as well as stocks of fish, timber, water, fertile soils,
clean air, biomass, biodiversity are all under pressure, as is the stability of
the climate system. Whilst demand for food, feed and fibre may increase
by 70% by 2050, 60% of the world’s major ecosystems that help produce
these resources have already been degraded or are used unsustainably. If
we carry on using resources at the current rate, by 2050 we will need, on
aggregate, the equivalent of more than two planets to sustain us, and the
aspirations of many for a better quality of life will not be achieved.
The Vision:
By 2050 the EU's economy has grown in a way that respects resource
constraints and planetary boundaries, thus contributing to global economic
transformation. Our economy is competitive, inclusive and provides a high
standard of living with much lower environmental impacts. All resources
are sustainably managed, from raw materials to energy, water, air, land
and soil. Climate change milestones have been reached, while biodiversity
and the ecosystem services it underpins have been protected, valued and
substantially restored.
Resource efficient development is the route to this vision. It allows the
economy to create more with less, delivering greater value with less input,
using resources in a sustainable way and minimising their impacts on the
environment. In practice, this requires that the stocks of all environmental
assets from which the EU benefits or sources its global supplies are secure
and managed within their maximum sustainable yields. It will also require
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that residual waste is close to zero and that ecosystems have been
restored, and systemic risks to the economy from the environment have
been understood and avoided. A new wave of innovation will be required.
This Roadmap sets the milestones, which illustrate what will be needed to
put us on a path to resource efficient and sustainable growth.
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OECD
OECD (2009):
Managing Risk in Agriculture; a holistic approach
The source of risk in Agriculture are numerous and diverse, ranging from
events related to climate and weather conditions to animal diseases; from
changes in agriculture commodities prices to changes in fertilizer and
other input prices; and from financial uncertainties to policy and
regulatory risks.
A diversity of hazards related to weather, pests and diseases determine
production in ways that are outside the control of the farmer. Some risks
are non-systematic. Their occurrence and the associated damage are
unknown to a great extent. Many risks are correlated. Some risks are
catastrophic because they very infrequent but cause a large amount of
damage, and they are often systemic and non-systemic at the same time.
Agricultural risks are not independent, but rather are linked both to each
other and as part of a system that includes all available instruments,
strategies and policies designed to manage risk. For risk reduction and
mitigation, there are policy actions that are ex ante and other that are
triggered or decided ex post. Most governments have some instruments to
deal with catastrophic risks.
A holistic approach is thus necessary.
This book examines the current magnitude and characteristics of riskrelated policies in agriculture and what is known about the quantitative
size of agricultural risks. It looks at the on-farm, off-farm, and market
instruments available to manage risk, and it explains how the holistic
approach helps clarify the role of governments.
OECD (2011):
Managing Risk in Agriculture;
Policy Assessment and Design
This book examines the implications of risk management for policy in
agriculture. Opening with a chapter on risk management principles and
guidelines for policy design in agriculture, the book goes on to look at
quantitative analysis of risk and then at policy in various countries.
OECD (2012):
OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies;
Future Global Shocks
Improving risk governance
Never before have global risks seemed so complex, the stakes so high,
and the need for international cooperation to deal with them so apparent.
The awareness of risk management in government and the private sector
has risen dramatically in recent years. Large-scale disasters have been
recognised as challenges to public policy, usually at the national or
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regional level. Global leaders are acutely aware that systemic shock could
severely challenge economic recovery, social cohesion and even political
stability. Unanticipated events such as natural disasters, failures in key
technical systems or malicious attacks could disrupt the complex world
economic system and produce shocks that propagate around the world
with devastating effects on society and economy.
OECD (2012):
Emerging Risks in the 21st Century
An Agenda for Action
The 21st Century has so far witnessed a host of large-scale disasters in
various parts of the world including: windstorms, flooding, new diseases
infesting both, humans and animals, terrorist attacks and major
disruptions to critical infrastructures.
It is not just the nature of major risks that seems to be changing, but also
the context in which risks are evolving as well as society’s capacity to
manage them. This book explores the implications of these developments
for economy and society in the 21st century, focussing in particular on the
potentially significant increase in the vulnerability of major systems.
It concentrates on five large risk clusters:
 natural disasters,
 technological accidents,
 infectious diseases,
 food safety,
 terrorism,
identifies the challenges facing OECD countries and sets out
recommendations for governments and the private sector as to how the
management of emerging systemic risks might be improved.
The themes are:
 Emerging systemic risks,
 Risk assessment,
 Risk prevention,
 Emergency management,
 Recovery issues.
OECD (2011):
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020
This is the seventeenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the seventh
co-edition prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations (FAO). This report provides world market trends for
biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products and, for the first
time, the fisheries sector over the 2011-20 period. This edition also
includes an evaluation of recent developments, key issues and
uncertainties in those commodity markets. The projections are the result
of close co-operation with national experts in OECD and non-OECD
countries. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD’s
AGLINK and on the FAO’s COSIMO models, facilitates consistency in the
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projections. In the context of the G20 discussions on agriculture, a section
of the report is devoted this year to the policy responses to price volatility.
OECD (2011):
World Energy Outlook 2011
World Energy Outlook brings together the latest data, policy
developments, and the experience of another year to provide robust
analysis and insight into global energy markets, today and for the next
25 years. This edition of the International Energy Agency flagship World
Energy Outlook publication gives the latest energy demand and supply
projections for different future scenarios, broken down by county, fuel and
sector. It also gives special focus to the role of coal in an emissionsconstrained world, the implications of a possible delay in oil and gas sector
investment, how high-carbon infrastructure “lock-in” is making the 2°C
climate change goal more challenging, the scale of fossil fuel subsidies
and support for renewable energy and their impact, and what a rapid
slowdown in the use of nuclear power would mean for the global energy
landscape.
OECD (2012):
Studies on Water
Meeting the Water Reform Challenge
The need to reform water policies is as urgent as ever. Water is essential
for economic growth, human health, and the environment.
Yet governments around the world face significant challenges in managing
their water resources effectively.
The problems are multiple and complex: billions of people are still without
access to safe water and adequate sanitation; competition for water is
increasing among the different uses and users; and major investment is
required to maintain and improve water infrastructure in OECD and nonOECD countries.
Despite progress on many fronts, governments around the world are still
confronted with the need to reform their existing water policies in order to
meet current objectives and future challenges.
Building on the water challenges identified by the OECD
Environment Outlook to 2050, this report examines three
fundamental areas that need to be addressed whatever reform
agendas are pursued by governments:
 financing of the water sector;
 the governance and institutional arrangements that are in
place; and
 coherence between water policies and policies in place in other
sectors of the economy.
The report provides governments with practical advice and
policy tools to pursue urgent reform in their water sectors.
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OECD (2011):
Green Growth Studies;
Food and Agriculture
As part of the OECD Green Growth Strategy, this new series aims to
provide in-depth reviews of the green growth issues faced by different
sectors. The agriculture and fisheries sectors have an important role to
play in contributing to greener growth, in particular through facilitating the
uptake of green technologies and management practices and reducing
waste in the food chain.
This will involve a range of policies, including the reform of
environmentally harmful subsidies that distort efficient resource use; freer
international trade; shifting towards targeted policies that will support
poor and vulnerable farmers; rewarding the provision of ecosystem
services; and encouraging Research and Development, technologies and
management practices that improve the productivity of resource use.
Framing appropriate “greening” policies is also a major governance issue
which requires examining the incentives and disincentives generated by
policies, as well as the regulatory and institutional framework more
broadly.
OECD (2012):
Green Growth Studies;
Energy
Global demand for energy is increasing rapidly, because of population and
economic growth, especially in emerging market economies. While
accompanied by greater prosperity, rising demand creates new
challenges. Energy security concerns can emerge as more consumers
require ever more energy resources. And higher consumption of fossil fuel
leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide
(CO2), which contributes to global warming. The Green Growth Strategy
encompasses both policy recommendations to make economic growth
“greener” and a set of indicators to monitor progress green growth. The
Green Growth Strategy is first and foremost about implementing change
and achieving a common purpose: a world that is stronger, cleaner, and
fairer. A large scale transformation of the global energy sector is possible,
although it will require significant investment. Global emission could be
halved by 2050, using existing and emerging technologies. Moving
economies in a greener direction will foster broad benefits. Green growth
can reduce the burden on land, air and water resources while creating
expanded opportunities for gains in productivity, quality of life and social
equity. The OECD Green Growth Strategy aims to provide concrete
recommendations and measurement tools, including indicators, to support
countries’ efforts to achieve economic growth and development, while
ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resources and
environmental services on which well-being relies. The strategy proposes
a flexible policy framework that can be tailored to different country
circumstances and stages of development. This report was coordinated
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with the International Energy Agency (IEA). This report looks at the role
of the energy sector in moving towards a green growth model and the
policies to facilitate the transition. Together with innovation, going green
can be a long-term driver for economic growth, through, for example,
investing in renewable energy and improved efficiency in the use of
energy and materials.
OECD (2011):
Fostering Productivity and Competitiveness in Agriculture
This report reviews economic concepts of innovation, research and
development, productivity and competitiveness, and their linkages.
It then discusses evidence on developments in productivity and
competitiveness in the agricultural and food processing sectors and on the
relationship between agricultural productivity and farm size, factor
intensity, farm specialisation, human capital, consumer demand, the
natural environment, investments in general infrastructures and
innovation, research and development, regulations, and agricultural
policies. It describes developments in public and private investments in
agricultural innovation, research and development and outlines their
positive impact on productivity growth. Finally, it suggests an “innovation
systems” approach would help understand better how innovation
translates into productivity growth.
OECD (2011):
Challenges for Agricultural Research
As the world has changed during the past 50 years, so has agriculture.
And so has agricultural research, which continues to confront new
challenges, from food security to ecological concerns to land use issues.
Indeed, as Guy Paillotin, the former president of the French National
Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) has noted, agricultural research
“has reached new heights in biology and is exploring other disciplines. It is
forever changing, as are the needs of the society”. The changing
challenges faced by agricultural research were examined in depth at a
conference organised by the OECD’s Co-operative Research Programme
on Biological Resource Management for Sustainable Agricultural Systems.
Participants came from all agricultural sectors and included farmers,
industry, scientists and decision makers, as well as other stake holders.
This publication presents the twenty papers delivered at the conference.
They highlight recent major progress in agricultural research outcomes
and address the challenges that lie ahead.
The main themes, Vision for the future:
 Coping with pressures on natural resources (water and soil)
 Delivering agricultural landscapes for production and biodiversity
outcomes
 Competition in Agriculture for food, fibre and fuel
 Food safety today and tomorrow: the challenges in changing food
and farming practices
 Animal biotechnology in the USA
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OECD (2012):
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050
Humanity has witnessed unprecedented growth and prosperity in the past
decades, with the size of the world economy more than tripling and
population increasing by over 3 billion people since 1970. This growth,
however, has been accompanied by environmental pollution and natural
resource depletion. The current growth model and the mismanagement of
natural assets could ultimately undermine human development.
The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 asks “What will the next four
decades bring?” Based on joint modelling by the OECD and the
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, it looks forward to the
year 2050 to find out what demographic and economic trends might mean
for the environment if the world does not adopt more ambitious green
policies. It also looks at what policies could change that picture for the
better. This Outlook focuses on four areas: climate change, biodiversity,
freshwater and health impacts of pollution. These four key environmental
challenges were identified by the previous Environmental Outlook to 2030
(OECD, 2008) as “Red Light” issues requiring urgent attention.
OECD (2012):
Climate Change and Agriculture
Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation
The report considers some of the most intense issues that underpin the
economics of addressing climate change impacts in the agricultural sector,
specifically, projected impacts of climate change on agricultural systems,
adaptation responses to these scenarios, and the mitigation of sector
greenhouse gas emissions. The report describes current knowledge on the
impacts of climate change on agriculture and related resources, examines
the limits of the knowledge on the mechanism that translate climate
change into potentially serious impacts on food production, water stress,
and ultimately food security.
While governments throughout the world are assessing the diverse threats
posed by climate change, the impacts on agriculture have been identified
as potentially the most serious in terms of numbers of people affected and
the severity of impacts on those least able to cope. Climate factors
constitute some of the main constraints on crop and livestock production.
The nature and implications of adaptive response options are either
autonomous (private) or planned. The report then considers the question
of emissions mitigation across the sector and associated questions raised
by the need for agriculture to play a part in mitigation obligations. In the
case of both adaptation and mitigation, policy responses need to be
informed by effectiveness and efficiency considerations.
Agriculture is having to adapt to significant impacts of climate change,
while at the same time providing food for a growing population. Meeting
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climate change, food security and trade commitments presents both
challenges and opportunities for the agri-food sector.
Agriculture is one of the few sectors that can both contribute to mitigation
and sequestration of carbon emissions and accounting for agriculture’s
carbon footprint is necessary, particularly if agriculture is included in
greenhouse gas reduction commitments. However, the range and
variability of estimates, and the complexity and uncertainty of accounting
for indirect land use change remain to be resolved.
Policies will play a role in enhancing the ability of agriculture to adapt to
climate change, while also contributing to other environmental goals.
In 2004 agriculture directly contributed about 14% of global
anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), although scientific
uncertainty suggests it could be much higher. Land use, land use change
and forestry account for a further 17%.
Global GHG emissions by sector:
Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change
Projections to 2050 suggest both an increase in global mean temperatures
and increased weather variability, with implications for the type and
distribution of agricultural production worldwide. Climate change will also
worsen the living conditions for many who are already vulnerable,
particularly in developing countries because of lack of assets and adequate
insurance coverage.
These impacts highlight key policy issues, including the need to produce
more food for an increasing population.
Projections of more than 9 billion people in 2050 suggest that food
production will need to double from current levels.
Impact of climate change on OECD agriculture
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At the same time, in order to limit future global warming to a 2°C
temperature increase as recommended by IPCC, anthropogenic GHG
emissions will have to decrease globally by at least 50% by 2050 from
1990 levels. Agriculture is not currently subject to emissions caps,
although several OECD countries are already implementing mitigation
action plans.
In addition to reducing its own emissions, carbon sequestration in
agricultural soils can play an important role in offsetting emissions from
other sectors. Some agricultural GHG mitigation options are cost
competitive with a number of non-agricultural options in achieving longterm climate objectives.
Quantifying GHG emissions from agricultural activities is complex. First,
the atomistic nature of production (many individual farmers) in a wide
range of geographic and climatic conditions means that emissions are not
only highly variable but also difficult and costly to measure precisely.
Second, there continues to be a great deal of scientific uncertainty as GHG
emissions from agriculture are subject to a complex interplay of many
factors such as climate, soil type, slope, and production practices.
Accounting for the indirect land use changes arising from agricultural
production is another important challenge. The recent global surge in food
prices highlighted the importance of agricultural policies for world food
and energy markets.
In particular, the links between production of biofuels from feedstock (in
many cases subsidised), consequent land use changes, and food prices
demonstrate the importance of foreseeing the range of consequences.
Adaptation
While some regions of the world may benefit from improved conditions,
the overall effect of climate change is nonetheless expected to be negative
for global agricultural production if no action is taken. Increased
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concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere already lock-in a certain
amount of climate change.
Moreover, given the long time-lags that will be required for GHG
mitigation efforts to have an impact, adaptation will have to occur. This
may range from altering farm management practices to adoption of new
varieties, crops, and animal breeds more appropriate to future climate
conditions.
As agricultural production increases, resource constraints, particularly
water, will become tighter. Agriculture globally accounts for about 70% of
the world’s freshwater withdrawals (45% in OECD countries). Climate
change is expected to alter the seasonal timing of rainfall and snow pack
melt and result in a higher incidence and severity of floods and droughts.
Both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture will need to be managed more
sustainably to reduce resulting production risks.
Mitigation
Of the options to reduce GHG emissions in agriculture using currently
available technologies, significant mitigation can be achieved through
improved cropland and grazing land management, restoration of degraded
lands, and land use change (e.g. agro-forestry). Emissions from livestock
production can be reduced through improved nutrition and better
management of manure.
In addition, crop and pasture lands can sequester significant amounts of
carbon, and therefore contribute to offsetting emissions from other
sources, while improving soil quality and health.
More research is needed, notably to determine:
· The technical and the economic potential of various mitigation
and sequestration options, including through life cycle analysis
· How the pressure of indirect land use can be addressed with
second generation biofuels
· How emissions of GHG from crop and livestock production can
be reduced.
Policy response
Government policy can play an important role in maintaining a viable
agriculture in the face of climate change. Reforms of agricultural policies,
in particular the shift to decoupling, have reduced specific commodityrelated production distortions. Future reforms might better target specific
environmental outcomes, such as encouraging production techniques with
low GHG emissions or that minimise them.
Mitigation and adaptation approaches will need to be strengthened. These
are likely to be more effective if they are embedded in longer-term
strategies linked to agricultural policy reform, risk management, research
and development, and market-based approaches. Examples include crop
and disaster insurance, research into crop varieties and breeds better
adapted to changing climatic conditions, and incentives for more efficient
use of water.
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In responding to the future challenges for agriculture of addressing
climate change and increasing food demand, a coherent policy approach is
needed that:
 Ensures a stable policy environment that sends clear signals to
consumers and producers about the costs and benefits of GHG
mitigating/sequestering activities.
 Provides a real or implicit price of carbon to create incentives for
producers and consumers to invest in low-GHG products,
technologies and processes.
 Fosters the application of existing technologies and invest in R&D for
new technologies to reduce GHG emissions and increase
productivity.
 Builds capacity to better understand and measure the GHG impact
of agriculture for monitoring progress relative to national and
international climate change goals.
 Facilitates adaptation by increasing producer resilience to climate
change, and that compensate the most vulnerable groups.
Following Copenhagen, the OECD will continue to examine the role of land
use change in agriculture (and the links with forestry), develop tools to
analyse the design and implementation of cost effective policies so that
agriculture can adapt to and mitigate climate change, and facilitate the
sharing of experiences amongst countries on policies to address climate
change in agriculture.
OECD (2012):
Farmer Behaviour, Agricultural Management and Climate Change
The study examines the broad range of factors driving farm management
decisions that can improve the environment, including drawing on the
experiences of OECD countries. It identifies policy options that would
contribute to a sustainable and resilient agricultural sector in the context
of climate change.
Farmers have a long record of adapting to climate change. The evolving
nature of the present changes could, however, have a significant impact
on agriculture that will challenge farmers to adapt even further as regards
land use and production practices. Moreover, agriculture is expected to
reduce its GHG emissions and to offset CO2 emissions from other sectors
through carbon sequestration. These actions are closely related to farm
management practices. It is therefore important to understand how the
cultural and social factors in addition to policy incentives facilitate or
hinder the implementation of adaptation and mitigation actions. Drawing
on the experiences of OECD countries, this report identifies policy options
that would contribute to a sustainable and resilient agricultural sector in
the context of climate change.
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FAO
FAO (2009):
How to feed the world 2050; High-level expert forum
In the first half of this century, as the world´s population grows to around
9 billion, global demand for food, feed and fibre will nearly double while,
increasingly, crops may also be used for bioenergy and other industrial
purposes. New and traditional demand for agricultural produce will thus
put growing pressure on already scarce agricultural resources. And while
agriculture will be forced to compete for land and water with sprawling
urban settlements, it will also be required to serve on other major fronts:
adapting to and contributing to the mitigation of climate change, helping
preserve natural habitats, protecting endangered species and maintaining
a high level of biodiversity. As though this were not challenging enough, in
most regions fewer people will be living in rural areas and even fewer will
be farmers. They will need new technologies to grow more from less land,
with fewer hands. The demand for food is expected to continue to grow as
a result both of population growth and rising incomes.
Demand for cereals yearly by 2050 (for food and animal feed) is projected
to reach some
3.000.000.000 tonnes
Annual cereal production will have to grow by almost
1.000.000.000 tonnes
(2 bn tonnes per year today),
Annual meat production by over
200.000.000 tonnes
to reach a total yearly production of 470 million tonnes in 2050.
The production of biofuels could also increase the demand for agricultural
commodities, depending on energy prices and government policies.
Using less water and at the same time producing more food will be the
key to addressing water scarcity problems. Water scarcity could be made
more acute by changing rainfall patterns resulting from climate change.
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United Kingdom:
 BIS-Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Foresight
 DEFRA
 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food
Security
 Global Food Security
Reports, position statements and strategies
Climate Change Act
Committee on Climate Change
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) is an expert, independent,
statutory public body, created to assess how the UK can best achieve its
emissions reduction targets for 2020 and 2050 and to assess progress
towards the statutory carbon budgets.
It was created by the Climate Change Act 2008 and plays a crucial role in
the UK’s effort to tackle climate change.
In summary, the Climate Change Act 2008 requires that the CCC will
advise on:
 the level of each five-year carbon budget, in order to meet the
statutory 2050 and 2020 targets
 how much effort should be made towards meeting these from the
UK and overseas
 how much effort should be made by the part of the economy
covered by cap and trade schemes (the traded sector), and by the
rest of the economy (the non traded sector).
An Adaptation Sub-Committee of the CCC provides independent scrutiny
of Government in relation to:
 the preparation of the UK risk assessment, in particular its
methodology and conclusions
 the implementation of the Government’s Adaptation Programme (for
England and reserved matters), highlighting areas where the
Government is doing well, and areas where it is falling short on
achieving changes
 any relevant topic suggested by the Government and the Devolved
Administrations
Role of the Committee on Climate Change:
Advice on carbon budgets
On 1 December 2008, the Committee provided its advice to the UK
Government and Devolved Administrations on the optimum level of the
first three Carbon budgets, consistent with achieving the 2020 and 2050
targets and fulfilling the UK’s international obligations.
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The CCC’s report,
Building a low carbon economy: the UK’s contribution to tackling climate
change,
recommended the UK reduce emissions of all greenhouse gases by at
least 34 percent by 2020 relative to 1990 levels. This should increase to
42 percent relative to 1990 (31 percent relative to 2005) once a global
deal to reduce emissions is struck.
In making its recommendations, the CCC balanced a range of criteria,
including economic, environmental and social factors.
The Climate Change Act includes a list of factors the CCC must consider
when recommending the level of each budget:
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scientific knowledge about climate change
technology relevant to climate change
economic circumstances – in particular, the likely impact of the
decision on the economy and the competitiveness of particular
sectors of the economy
fiscal circumstances – in particular, the likely impact of the decision
on taxation, public spending and public borrowing
social circumstances – in particular, the likely impact of the decision
on fuel poverty
energy policy – in particular, the likely impact of the decision on
energy supplies and the carbon and energy intensity of the economy
differences in circumstances between England, Wales, Scotland and
Northern Ireland
circumstances at European and international level
the estimated amount of reportable emissions from international
aviation and international shipping for the budgetary period or
periods in question
The CCC is the first body of its kind bringing together different strands of
expertise from the fields of climate science and policy, economics,
business competitiveness and financial management. It draws on existing
information and undertakes its own analysis to provide expert advice to
ministers. It may also be asked to give advice to Ministers on specific
climate change matters as and when requested.
(unsere Anmerkung dazu:
Entwicklung einer Kommunikationsstrategie für die
Ernährungssicherungs-Risiken für Zielgruppen wie politische
Entscheidungsträger, Hersteller und Verbraucher.
das ist was wir unter operative Umsetzung des Projektes meinen könnten
betreffend den Punkt 3 der Ziele des Projektes)
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Bewertung der Risiken des Klimawandels für Großbritannien (2012):
Vortrag der UK-Regierung vor dem britischen Parlament am 25. Januar
2012
Das Parlament beauftragte die Regierung Ihrer Majestät mit der
Ausarbeitung der Bewertung der Risiken des Klimawandels für
Großbritannien, und um Berichterstattung darüber vor dem 26. Januar
2012. Die Regierung Ihrer Majestät legte eine sehr umfangreiche Studie
dem Parlament am 25. Januar 2012 vor.
Die Studie untersuchte 700 potenzielle Einflussfaktoren des Klimawandels
auf Großbritannien. Detaillierte Untersuchung wurde in Einbeziehung von
100 der 700 Einflussfaktoren auf 11 Schlüsselsektoren durchgeführt.
Dabei wurden die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit von Einflüssen, das Ausmaß
der potenziellen Auswirkungen, und die Dringlichkeit, die für Maßnahmen
für die Vermeidung der Auswirkungen dieser negativen Einflussfaktoren
des Klimawandels notwendig sind, analysiert.
Die Schlüsselbereiche für die Vorlage für die Berichterstattung für das
Parlament waren:
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Land- und Forstwirtschaft
Wirtschaft im Allgemeinen
Industrie und Dienstleistungen
Gesundheit und Wohlbefinden
Umwelt, bauliche Anlagen und Infrastruktur
Die staatliche Administration bekommt dadurch starke Grundlagen um
sich entsprechend auf den Klimawandel vorzubereiten, und geeignete
Maßnahmen zu ergreifen, um die Risiken, die auf uns zukommen, konkret
auf die Wirtschaft, Gesellschaft und Umwelt, in den Griff zu bekommen.
Über die Detailanalyse wurden 11 Sektorberichte und zusätzlich für jeden
Sektor jeweils eine sehr schön farbig gestaltete Zusammenfassung
veröffentlicht:
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Landwirtschaft
Biodiversität
Bauanlagen
Wirtschaft im Allgemeinen, Industrie und Dienstleistungen
Energiesektor
Überschwemmungen und Erosion der Küstenlandschaften
Forstwirtschaft
Gesundheitswesen
Meere und Fischerei
Transportwesen
Wasser
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Darüber hinaus wurden Spezialausgaben für die vier Länder des
Vereinigten Königreichs veröffentlicht. Für die lokalen Behörden,
Wirtschaftsteilnehmer und die Bevölkerung, interessierte gemeinnützige
Organisation (public-private partnership) wurden spezielle
Informationspakete zur Verfügung gestellt.
Die ausführliche Dokumentation über die Risikobewertung des
Klimawandels für die Landwirtschaft umfasst 252 Seiten.
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) (25 January 2012)
The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
(CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK
and the first in a 5 year cycle.
Information on this page includes:
The CCRA has reviewed the evidence for over 700 potential impacts of
climate change in a UK context. Detailed analysis was undertaken for over
100 of these impacts across 11 key sectors, on the basis of their
likelihood, the scale of their potential consequences and the urgency with
which action may be needed to address them.
Producing the CCRA has involved a high degree of consultation and
review. The outputs provide an evidence base that can be used by central
Government and Devolved Administrations in identifying priorities for
action and appropriate adaptation measures that will be required to
minimise risks to our economy, environment and society.
Although the primary customer for this work is central Government and
the Devolved Administrations, the outputs from the CCRA are also of value
to other public and private sector organisations.
This independent analysis was funded by UK Government and Devolved
Governments and has been delivered through a consortium of
organisations led by HR Wallingford. The outputs have been extensively
peer reviewed by scientific and economics experts, an independent
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international peer review panel, and have also been scrutinised by the
Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change.
We want your views – help develop the National Adaptation Programme
We will be working with businesses, civil society and local government to
develop the UK’s first National Adaptation Programme to maintain the
resilience of the UK to climate change and changing weather.
Please make the time to contribute – whether it’s sharing an innovative
method, or a small change that would make a big difference – via this
dedicated area on our website. This is the start of a dialogue that will
continue throughout 2012.
The CCRA UK Government Report
This report sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under
5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report –
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Agriculture and Forestry;
Business,
industries and Services;
Health and Wellbeing;
Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure –
and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle
some of the risks in each area. It highlights the constraints of the CCRA
analysis and provides advice on how to take account of the uncertainty
within the analysis.
Underpinning evidence for the CCRA
The CCRA methodology is novel in that it has allowed for comparison of
over 100 risks (prioritised from an initial list of over 700) from a number
of disparate sectors based on the magnitude of the impact and confidence
in the evidence base. A key strength of the analysis is using a consistent
method and set of climate projections to look at current and future risks
and opportunities.
The CCRA methodology has been developed through a number of stages
involving expert peer review. The approach developed is a tractable,
repeatable methodology that is not dependent on changes in long term
plans between the 5 year cycles of the CCRA.
The results, with the exception of population growth where this is
relevant, do not include societal change in assessing future risks, either
from non-climate related change, for example economic growth, or
developments in new technologies; or future responses to climate risks
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such as future or planned Government policies or private adaptation
investment plans.
Excluding these factors from the analysis provides a more robust
‘baseline’ against which the effects of different plans and policies can be
more easily assessed. However, when utilising the outputs of the CCRA,
it is essential to consider that Government and key organisations are
already taking action in many areas to minimise climate change risks and
these interventions need to be considered when assess where further
action may be best directed or needed.
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report
The Evidence Report provides an overview of climate change risks and
opportunities based on the analyses described in the Sector Reports and
other sources of information.
It is intended to provide information to policy makers on the risks and
opportunities from climate change and the vulnerability of the UK.
The analysis is presented in 5 themes:
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Agriculture and Forestry;
Business,
Industry and Services;
Health and Wellbeing;
Buildings and Infrastructure;
Natural Environment.
Climate change risks in each theme are presented in terms of the
range of potential magnitude of the risk, how magnitude varies over
time and the overall confidence in the findings of the assessment.
The Evidence Report has been extensively peer reviewed by scientific and
economics experts, an independent international peer review panel, and
have also been scrutinised by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the
Committee on Climate Change.
Reports and Summaries for each of the eleven sectors
The underpinning evidence for the CCRA was collected using
eleven ‘sectors’ or research areas.
The background Sector Reports describe a wide range of potential risks in
each sector, followed by a more detailed analysis of selected risks that
were judged to be the most important.
Climate Change Partnership Information Packs: Summary of
Climate Change Risks
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To coincide with the publication of the CCRA, and given the importance of
adaptation action at a local level, Defra commissioned the nine Climate
Change Partnerships across England to produce information packs to
highlight key risks and opportunities from climate change and what they
mean across a range of sectors within each area.
Drawing on information within the CCRA and other local evidence, the
Climate Change Partnership’s analysis illustrates what climate change may
mean at the local level for people, businesses, community and charitable
groups, local authorities, and other organisations across key sectors.
It also highlights what is currently being done to address risks and where
there is a strong case for greater local action.
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http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=CCRAfortheAgricultureSector.pdf
Diese ausführliche Dokumentation enthält 252 Seiten, unten daraus zur Kostprobe die:
Wie erwartet, im Mittelpunkt des ersten Satzes steht die absolute Bedeutung der Photosynthesis,
wie wir bereits diese in mehreren anderen Beschreibungen über climate change gesehen haben.
Wir können dazu sagen: nicht nur die UK, alle anderen Länder und Kontinente werden die
Anstrengungen, wie in der UK bereits begonnen, zu eigen machen müssen, naturgemäß auch AT.
Global food security (2011):
Future research challenges
Providing access to safe, nutritious and affordable food to the growing
global population is a huge challenge.
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To achieve this aim, scientists will need to work together, across
disciplines, to overcome some major research challenges.
The good news is that certain organisations, such as the Consultative
Group on International Agricultural Research, an alliance of international
agricultural centres that aim to achieve sustainable food security and
reduce poverty through research-related activities, have stated that with
appropriate funding a doubling of food production is possible.
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Enhancing photosynthesis
Reducing environmental impact
Increasing nutritional benefits
Defeating exotic diseases
Tougher robust crops
Exploiting genome advances
Improving wheat
Understanding diet and health
1 Enhancing photosynthesis
Ultimately all the food we consume – and all life on Earth – relies on the
conversion of carbon dioxide into sugars using energy from sunlight
through photosynthesis.
Improvements in the yields of major crops could be achieved if scientists
can understand how to improve the efficiency of photosynthetic pathways
and increase production using the same amount of sunlight.
Not all plants have the same photosynthetic pathways. C3 carbon fixation
is one of three biochemical mechanisms, along with C4 and CAM
photosynthesis. Most plants use the C3 pathway, but around 25-30M
years ago the C4 system evolved many times (an example of convergent
evolution); it is called C4 because the first product of CO2 fixation in C4
plants has four carbon atoms, rather than three as in C3 plants.
C4 plants possess distinctive features, particularly in leaf anatomy and
biochemistry, which lead to higher photosynthetic efficiency (especially in
warm climates) and lower requirements for water. C4 plants dominate
many tropical savannahs and grasslands and account for 30% of global
terrestrial carbon fixation, even though only 5% of plant species use the
C4 pathways.
Some major agricultural grass species, such as maize, sugar cane,
sorghum and millet, use C4 photosynthesis. Scientists are therefore keen
to investigate the introduction of C4 pathways into cereals such as rice
and wheat that use the less productive C3 metabolism through
conventional breeding or genetic modification. It could provide massive
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benefits in yield and save water – C3 plants lose 97% of the water taken
up through their roots to transpiration and the C4 system raises water-use
efficiency compared to the C3 type.
2 Reducing environmental impact
Efforts are also needed to increase the sustainability of farming practices,
which are responsible for 7% of total greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in
the UK.
Possible solutions include less ploughing, and instead covering the ground
with organic residue such as straw to counter weed growth, or rotating
crops. Known as conservation agriculture, this avoids damaging soil and
releasing GHGs (from ploughing) and can conserve soil structure,
nutrients, as well as saving energy.
Another strategy includes incorporating nitrogen-fixing capability into nonleguminous plants. Nitrogen is vital for plant growth. Despite making up
79% of the Earth’s atmosphere it cannot be used by plants in that form
and plant biomass is often limited by the amount of nitrogen (and
phosphorus) they can obtain. This is the reason plants respond with
significant extra growth when fertilisers are applied.
A few plants have evolved symbiotic relationships with bacteria that
convert (or ‘fix’) atmospheric nitrogen into a usable form. The roots of
leguminous plants like peas and beans possess nodules filled with
symbiotic bacteria that can convert the inert atmospheric form of nitrogen
into compounds usable by plants – the result is that they need less
nitrogen fertiliser than crops without the nodules.
Soya and alfalfa are examples of other plants that have this ability. But
what if you could understand the mechanism enough to cross the trait into
wheat, rice or barley?
The benefits could be enormous. Less fertiliser would be needed, which
would save time, money, and the energy required to produce the fertiliser
in the first place. This would lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions and reduced runoff from fertilisers that can pollute aquatic
habitats.
Drought-tolerance in crops is also important for securing future harvests,
especially as water becomes more scarce. Nearly three-quarters of the
world’s fresh water that is abstracted for human use is used for irrigation
in agriculture and the UN predicts that irrigation demands will increase by
50-100% by 2025.
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Principal mechanisms to make plants more tolerant to drought include
improving water retention in roots, reducing water loss through leaves
and changing plants’ reactions to lack of water.
Both conventional breeding and genetic modfication (GM) techniques
could help scientists enhance plants’ ability to withstand drought.
3 Increasing nutritional benefits
As well as yield benefits and reducing fertiliser inputs, scientists are
looking at the advantages of incorporating additional nutrients into crops,
or improving the post-harvest processing characteristics of certain plants.
Around 2013 a soya variety is set for launch designed to result in fewer
unhealthy transfats after processing. A soya bean with higher amounts of
omega-3, the fatty acid which can improve cardiovascular health, may
also be on the way. Scientists at RRes have already developed oilseeds
with increased omega-3 content.
All plants contain omega-3 fatty acids. However, not all omega-3 fatty
acids possess the health benefits associated with the fish oils that are rich
in a particular type called omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids.
These long-chain omega-3 fatty acids are absent from higher plants;
hence the rationale for trying to incorporate them into crops.
At present, omega-3 is harvested from oily fish like sardines and
mackerel, which in turn gain their omega-3 from algae. Inserting the
relevant genetic material from algae into soya beans could reduce
pressure on some fish stocks. Such products could also play a part in
providing sustainable feed for farmed fish, reducing the inefficient use of
wild-caught fish as a feedstock. It remains to be seen, however, how well
consumers will take to GM omega-3-enriched products.
4 Defeating exotic diseases
The food security challenge cannot be met by just improving plants.
Livestock are valuable assets to developed and developing countries and
convert inedible resources such as grass and some waste products into
items that people can eat.
In many developing countries wealth is measured by head of cattle, sheep
or goats, and diseases like rinderpest have in the past devastated
livestock numbers across large swathes of Europe and Africa.
Although rinderpest is on the verge of eradication, other diseases such as
bluetongue are endemic in some countries and threaten the health of
animals and economies in others, including the UK
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But unlike rinderpest and bluetongue some diseases have no vaccine.
African Swine Fever (ASF) is one of them, and it poses a major risk to pig
industries across the world. There is no cure or vaccine, and the highly
contagious virus causes a haemorrhagic fever with an extreme mortality
rate that can reach 100%.
5 Tougher robust crops
Optimising crop yields involves trade-offs. Tall plants with large canopies
capture light efficiently and shade the ground which prevent weeds
growing on the same patch. However, bigger is not always better. Tall,
fast-growing plants shadow their own lower leaves, can fall over (lodge) in
the wind and rain, and they put more of their energy into inedible stem
than edible grain.
Today’s wheat cultivars are much shorter than they were one hundred
years ago (try looking at the height of wheat in old paintings – it used to
be as tall as the person harvesting it. Modern ‘semi-dwarf’ plants are less
likely to lodge and more energy is channelled to the grain rather than the
stalk. These varieties of wheat, rice and sorghum formed the basis of the
increased yields of the ‘green revolution’ because they responded well to
the increased availability of fertilisers
The semi-dwarf form is a natural variant of wheat that humans have taken
advantage of; the gene responsible was identified and characterised only
10 years ago at the John Innes Centre (JIC, an institute of BBSRC).
Currently, JIC and RRes scientists are collaborating to identify additional
dwarfing gene variants that may provide increased tolerance to an
increasingly unpredictable environment.
6 Exploiting genome advances
Many advances and major breakthroughs will come from reading the
DNA code of organisms and deciphering the genetic mechanisms of traits
that manage plants’ reactions to stresses such as disease and drought.
To this end, the Genome Analysis Centre (TGAC, an institute of BBSRC)
was opened in 2009 to further research aimed at understanding the
genetic makeup of organisms and the genetic differences that exist
between individuals.
Understanding the genetic mechanisms underlying the synthesis of plant
compounds could allow breeders to develop crops with higher amounts of
beneficial antioxidants. The plant pigments lycopene and anthocyanin (a
flavonoid) both have anti-cancer properties, and could be more
concentrated in tomatoes for example.
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The use of genome analysis to understand the behaviour of plant
pigments could also enhance crop production.
7 Improving wheat
The International wheat genome sequencing consortium is toiling to
decode the wheat genome. It’s a huge task – the species that is used for
bread-making, Triticum aestivum, contains three sets of chromosomes
and has five times more DNA than the human genome.
Decoding the wheat genome will help scientists in many tasks. For
example, to understand why crossing wheat with other species is difficult
– a genetic mechanism prevents its chromosomes from swapping genes
with anything except other wheat plants.
However, scientists at JIC have identified a gene, Ph1, which allows
chromosomes to cross. Identifying ways to temporarily block the action of
the Ph1 gene could allow traits from related plants, such as wild wheats
and grasses, to be incorporated into wheat. This would be a huge leap
forward and enable a whole range of novel traits to be added, such as
drought and salt tolerance, increased biomass and nitrogen-use efficiency,
and resistance to insects and fungi.
JIC scientists are also determining the best characteristics for winter
wheat, which is sown in the autumn. Wheat responds to day length and
temperature, and these responses can be adjusted to match flowering and
maturation times to predicted future climates that have different
temperature and rainfall patterns.
8 Understanding diet and health
The food we do produce needs to be as healthy as it can be. Looking to
the future, there is a lot that we have to learn about what food does to
our bodies, besides providing energy and essential nutrients.
The embryonic field of nutrigenomics – the study of how nutrition
interacts with the genome and gene expression – could provide valuable
new information on how different foods (and nutrients within food) affect
metabolism, patterns of gene expression and our overall health and well
being.
Nutrigenomics will be partnered by other genomic technologies including
metabolomics – which involves the rapid measurement of many smallmolecule metabolites. The metabolome represents all metabolites in a
cell, tissue or organism, and advanced metabolic profiling aims to provide
a snapshot of the physiology of any cell and its many biochemical
pathways. In time, new fields such as these could provide insights that
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might improve our food, influence which foods we choose to eat and lead
to deeper understanding of how we respond to foodstuffs.

[email protected]
Food Policy, ELSEVIER (2011):
Fertiliser availability in a resource-limited world:
Production and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus
The scientists C.J. Dawson and J. Hilton searched in the field of the both
most important fertilisers nitrogen and phosphorus regarding to the
availability in the future. Fertilise soils are key to sustainable commercialscale production of crops. Most soils are requiring periodic but regular
treatments with macronutrients N, P and K. In quantitative terms it is the
role even of these three macronutrients in commercial agriculture that
predominates and hence is a critical dependency in any strategy designed
to result in food security. Global population growth, which has accelerated
markedly in the past 150 years, correlates closely to the discovery and
development of industrial-scale fertiliser production. If the commercial
manufacturing process for phosphatic fertiliser had not been discovered in
the 1840s, life in the UK and in other industrialised countries would have
become unsustainable. 2050 the world population may have grown to
9,3 bn, all of whom will depend on a sustainable solution to the supply of
nutrients to soils to replace those removed at harvest.
Of N, P, K and S, the four major nutrient inputs required for the
productive agriculture, K and S are not anticipated to be in limiting supply,
nor is there a significant energy requirement in their processing. N and P
have critical and mutually dependent roles. The finite and depleting nature
both of the energy sources currently used in the production of ammonia
for N fertilisers and of known global phosphate rock reserves possess
overwhelming attention. While the timescale of depletion is measurable
over centuries rather than decades, timescales potentially at odds with
present day-day commercial interests, new awareness of the need for
resource conservation and sustainability invites us to consider ways of
extending that timescale out by thousands of years, if not indefinitely.
This objective will require a major change of thinking on the part of all
stakeholders in the food production and consumption continuum, including
the fertiliser industry. Among the unintended consequences of the
successful agricultural policy during the past 50 years, mainly driven by
the tremendous CAP, are the commoditisation of both food and fertilisers
and a consequential breakdown in society`s understanding as to the true
origins, and costs, of the food it eats. A major change of direction is
required, starting with a rethink of food policy and the business model on
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which the `farm to fork` supply chain rests. Fertiliser use is essential both
in feeding the world and in the long-term management of productive land.
Nitrogen and Phosphorus are both essential to the life of all higher plants
and animals and neither is substitutable.
They exhibit, however, two significant differences:
 The supply of N is effectively unlimited,
 P reserves are very limited,
 The life cycle of N can be measured in years, or at most a century or
two,
 P is measured in millennia.
Nitrogen:
Calculations of the N flows in global agriculture estimated that 50 % of the
world`s dietary protein now for feeding the 7 bn world population
originated in the Haber-Bosch synthesis of ammonia. Logically and
evidence based can be argued that world population growth since the
early 20th century is largely sustained by the ready and affordable
availability of N fixed by the Haber-Bosch process.
The production of N fertiliser accounts for over 90 % of the total energy
input into fertiliser production. Industrial production of reactive N is
essential for feeding a large and increasing population, and the most
efficient production method is methane-based. A long-term strategy for
global food security depends critically on N availability, which in turn
requires that adequate supplies of methane are reserved for this function.
Phosphorus:
The main reserves of phosphate rock are found in relatively few countries.
The European Union possesses phosphate in a very limited quantity only
in Finland. As know the main reserves are situated in Morocco, 51.000
Megatons, of the world global reserves at 60.000 Megatons. On the other
side, Morocco is not really a supplier of high security in the future as we
estimated it in our current project about food security under climate
change in Austria. The anticipated time-frame of availability of the
phosphate rock reserves is between 300 and 400 years. From the
perspective of long-term security, whether the supplies will last for 400 or
for 800 years is somewhat academic. Phosphorus is essential for all the
life forms and is unsubstitutable; measured even against recorded human
history, a perspective of 400-800 years into the future is very short.
85 % of the processed phosphorus is used as agricultural fertiliser and as
a mineral source for animal nutrition.
Eventually the supply will become scarce, to the point where this scarcity
has the potential to lead to international conflict. This very localised
distribution only heightens the risk of dispute.
The use and husbanding of these resources through better agricultural
practices, but also from recycling and reuse of phosphorus in waste
streams, is a matter requiring global cooperation before phosphorus
becomes seriously scarce.
Overall, there is a pressing need to quantify accurately the phosphorus
flows and fluxes onto, within and off farms, both nationally and globally,
especially if an evidence-based policy and planning approach to managing
phosphorus is to be followed.
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Foresight (2010):
Government Office for Science, Government Chef Chief Scientific Advisor
Foresight advises Government about how to ensure today`s decisions are
robust to an uncertain future
Annual Review 2010
Die Abteilung für Zukunftsforschung des UK-Forschungsministeriums hat
ihren Jahresbericht 2010 vorgelegt, und behandelt darin gleich auf Platz
eins die Aussichten der Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit in Richtung
2050.
Der Bericht mit dem Titel „Die Zukunft der weltweiten Landwirtschaft und
Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit“ geht der Frage nach, wie können
9 Milliarden Menschen mit Hilfe der nachhaltigen Landwirtschaft gesund im
Jahr 2050 ernährt werden.
Die Forscher stellen gleich zu Beginn klar: wir sind an einem nie da
gewesenen Wendepunkt der Menschheitsgeschichte angelangt.
Klimawandel, Energieknappheit, Rohstoffknappheit, Wasserknappheit sind
die wichtigsten bestimmenden Faktoren auf der Angebotsseite der
landwirtschaftlichen Produktion. Auf der Nachfrageseite ist die wichtigste
treibende Bestimmungsgröße die Veränderung der Konsumgewohnheiten,
vor allem das zunehmende Verlangen der neuen Besserbestellten in den
großen aufstrebenden Ökonomien, vor allem in Asien, nach hochwertigem
Eiweiß in Form von Milch- und Fleischprodukten. Diese beiden Faktoren
zusammen, als auch das Angebot, als auch die Nachfrage, fordern die
Sicherung der nachhaltigen Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit enorm
heraus.
Obwohl die Nahrungsmittelversorgung für die meisten Menschen auf der
Erde funktioniert, in zwei kritischen Bereichen versagt das jetzige System.
Die beschränkten Ressourcen der Erde werden überstrapaziert, und eine
Milliarde Menschen, die ärmsten Bevölkerungsschichten in den ärmsten
Ländern, leiden an Hunger und oft an Fehlernährung.
Der Forschungsbericht weist darauf hin, dass sofortige und umfangreiche
Aktionen im globalen Maßstab notwendig sind, um die NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit der stetig (jährlich um 80 Millionen Menschen)
wachsenden Weltbevölkerung zu sichern. Über die Erreichung der
7 Milliarden Grenze der Weltbevölkerung (7 bn day) und die
Wachstumsprognosen der Weltbevölkerung in den nächsten Dekaden
berichteten wir am 31. Oktober dieses Jahres.
An dem Projekt Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit in Richtung 2050
haben mehr als 400 Experten aus 35 Ländern mitgearbeitet.
Die Wissenschaftler ziehen in ihrem Bericht die folgenden
Schlussfolgerungen:
 Die Nahrungsmittelproduktion muss nachhaltig werden,
 Die Nahrungsmittelproduktion muss sich dem Klimawandel
anpassen,
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Die weltweite Landwirtschaft muss einen aktiven Beitrag zur
Linderung der durch den Klimawandel verursachten Probleme
leisten,
Die Anstrengungen, um den Hunger zu besiegen, müssen verdoppelt
werden.
Die Wissenschaftler haben die folgenden fünf Herausforderungen
identifiziert und analysiert:
 Nachhaltiges, in Einklang-Bringen des weltweiten Angebotes und der
weltweiten Nachfrage der Nahrungsmittel, um sicher zu stellen, dass
ausreichende Kaufkraft der Bevölkerung zur Verfügung steht, um
das angebotene Nahrungsmittel zu leisten. Die weltweite
Nahrungsmittelproduktion verbraucht zurzeit in nicht nachhaltiger
Weise wesentlich schneller Ressourcen, als diese sich erneuern
könnten. Die Nahrungsmittelproduktion verbraucht 70 % des auf
der Welt jährlich zur Verfügung stehenden Süßwassers, und trägt
direkt mit 10-12 % zu den jährlich entstehenden Treibhausgasemissionen bei. Das Angebot an landwirtschaftlichen Produkten
muss in den nächsten 40 Jahren weltweit um 70 % wachsen, ohne
dabei nennenswerte Neuflächen in die Produktion eingliedern zu
können. Der Einsatz von Hochtechnologie, die Zurückhaltung beim
Konsum, Abfallreduktion, Verbesserung der politischen Rahmenbedingungen und die allgemeine Bewusstseinsbildung über
Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit müssen gestärkt werden.
 Sicherung ausreichender und stabiler Nahrungsmittel-Versorgung
weltweit, verbunden mit dem Schutz der wirtschaftlich
Schwächeren. Preisschwankungen sind für die Zukunft durch die
Marktbedingungen auf dem Nahrungsmittelsektor weiterhin
vorprogrammiert. Um starke Preisausschläge zu vermeiden,
empfehlen die Forscher weitestgehende, aber gleichzeitig an
internationale Vorgaben gebundene Marktliberalisierung, Aufbau
gewisser Nahrungsmittel-Reserven und Sicherheitsnetze in den
einzelnen Ländern für Produzenten und Konsumenten.
 Alle müssen ein Anrecht auf Zugang zu den Nahrungsmittel-Märkten
haben, um den Hunger zu beenden. Eine Milliarde Menschen
erleiden im Moment Hunger, eine weitere Milliarde Menschen sind
unterernährt, weil das dritte Kriterium der Trias, Menge, Sicherheit,
Qualität, nicht gesichert ist. In Kontrast dazu sind eine Milliarde
Menschen weltweit stark übergewichtig.
 Die gesamte Nahrungsmittelkette muss ihren Beitrag zur Minderung
des Klimawandels beisteuern. Wenn zu den vorhin erwähnten
10-12 % Treibhausgasemmission die ganze NahrungsmittelVerwertungskette, von der Vorleistungsindustrie bis zur
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Abfallverwertung, dazugezählt wird, dann betragen die
Treibhausgasemmissionen des Sektors sogar mehr als 30 %. Die
Erreichung von Nachhaltigkeit und die Minderung der
Treibhausgasemmissionen sind eigentlich die beiden Seiten ein und
derselben Medaille.
Erhaltung der Biodiversität der Pflanzen und Tiere für zukünftige
Generationen ist ein Imperativ. Die weltweite Produktion von
Nahrungsmitteln muss rasant wachsen, es wird aber kaum mehr
zusätzlich bebaubares Land dafür zur Verfügung stehen. Gleichzeitig
dürfen die Eingriffe in das Ökosystem nicht zunehmen. Das alles
zusammengenommen erfordert eine Intensivierung der Produktion
mit dem gleichzeitigen Ausbau der Nachhaltigkeit mit enormen
Investitionen in Wissenschaft und Technologie.
Die anderen, alle hochinteressante Berichte beschäftigen sich mit den
Themen:
 Die Zukunft der Technologie und Innovation.
 Die zukünftigen weltweiten Migrationsströme, die durch die
Veränderung der Umweltbedingungen ausgelöst werden. Vier große
Weltregionen wurden dabei in das Forschungsprojekt einbezogen,
um mit internationalen und lokalen Forschergruppen und nationalen
Regierungen innovative Ideen für die betroffenen Regionen zu
entwickeln und Perspektiven zu analysieren.
 Der Einsatz der Informationstechnologie auf den Finanzmärkten.
 Internationale Dimensionen des Klimawandels. In diesem Projekt
wird analysiert, welche Auswirkungen die weltweite Veränderung
des Klimas auf Großbritannien zeigen wird.
 Die Zukunft der Raumplanung in Verbindung mit dem Weißbuch zum
Umweltschutz und der Bewertung der nationalen Ecosysteme.
BIS Department for Business Innovation & Skills
Government Office for Science (2009):
UK Cross-Government food research and innovation strategy
The UK has a world leading science base which can contribute
substantially to achieving the vision of the Government food strategy –
Food 2030 – for a sustainable and secure food system, linking social,
environmental, health and economic factors, and in developing the policies
to deliver this. There are real challenges ahead for policy makers and
researchers, and for the food industry from producers to retailers, with
pressures on our food system set to increase in the decades ahead.
Key initiatives highlighted in this Strategy include:
 sustainable and secure food system
 crop productivity
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waste reduction
GHG reduction
Input to the ability of global food systems to feed the predicted
future world population of 9 billion healthy and sustainable.
Food Security (2012):
Feeling the heat
Plant scientists from Norwich Research Park are gathering evidence on the
precise ways in which plants are affected by rising temperatures and
falling rainfall levels. Their findings could show us if anything can be done
to help crops cope with the increased risks from drought and disease.
This documentation collects research to help plants cope with a changing
climate.
Less water means lower productivity, leaves grow more slowly and cereals
produce smaller, lighter grains because the grain-filling period is reduced.
Higher temperatures can also make plants more vulnerable to attack.
Pests and diseases can become more virulent or are able to survive in new
locations. Others become less virulent but the crops become more
susceptible to their effects. Researchers at the John Innes Centre (JIC) are
starting to unravel how plants respond to temperature and how their
interactions with pests and diseases are likely to change. This knowledge
may show us if it is possible to breed crop varieties that can to adapt to a
changing climate. Rising temperatures and increasing drought may be the
most obvious threats to agriculture posed by climate change, but the
greatest threat to yields could actually be from pests and diseases. For
example, some insect vectors are sensitive to cold and climate change
could provide them with more opportunities to spread to new areas.
The significance of this problem has only recently gained recognition and
is an emerging area of research. JIC scientists are investigating how
disease resistance in crops could be undermined and which diseases and
insect pests might spread or become more virulent as temperatures rise.
BIS – Foresight (2011):
Global food and farming futures
"How can a future global population of 9 billion people all be fed healthily
and sustainably?"
The project will look out to 2050 and take a global view of the food
system; considering issues of demand, production and supply as well as
broader environmental issues.
The Foresight project Global Food and Farming Futures final report and
executive summary provide an overview of the evidence and discuss the
challenges and choices for policy makers and others whose interests relate
to all aspects of the global food system. 13 synthesis reports are grouped
around the five key future challenges and provide detailed analysis around
the project’s robust scientific evidence base.
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The project has been motivated by a number of major challenges facing
the future of food and farming including:
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A growing world population and changing patterns of habitation.
The evolution of the global economy and associated trade and
governance issues.
Changing demands in consumption across the world.
The effects of climate change on agriculture and marine production.
Concerns over growing energy demand and the need to increase
yields while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The drive to improve the environmental sustainability of food
production and consumption.
Potential scientific and technological advances that will improve
efficiency and productivity.
Emergent and resurgent plant and animal pests and diseases.
The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food
Security (2011):
Achieving food security in the face of climate change
Summary for policy makers
Several converging threats – from climate change, population growth and
unsustainable use of resources – are steadily intensifying pressure on
humanity world government to transform the way food is produced,
distributed and consumed. The food system faces additional pressure as
the global population grows, to around 9 billion by 2050, and as diets shift
towards higher consumption of calories, fats and animal products. Food
insecurity afflicts communities throughout the world. As well as causing
widespread human suffering, food insecurity contributes to degradation
and depletion of natural resources, migration to urban areas and across
borders, and political and economic instability.
Our climate is changing and, given the levels of greenhouse gases already
in our atmosphere, will continue to do so. Extreme weather events, such
as high temperatures, droughts and floods, are already more frequent and
severe, and have dire social, economic and ecological consequences.
In the coming decades, global climate change will have an adverse overall
effect on agricultural production and will bring us toward, and perhaps
over, critical thresholds in many regions.
To reduce the effect of climate change on food supplies, livelihoods and
economies, we must greatly increase adaptive capacity in agriculture –
both to long term climatic trends and to increasing variability – as an
urgent priority.
BIS – Foresight (2011):
Migration and Global Environmental Change
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The project Migration and Global Environmental Change examines how
profound changes in environmental conditions such as flooding, drought
and rising sea levels will influence and interact with patterns of global
human migration over the next 50 years.
Whilst recognising the opportunities this human movement will present,
75% of which is internal, the project has found that the challenges
associated with this interaction have been underestimated. By focusing
solely on those that might leave vulnerable areas, we risk neglecting key
issues:
1. Millions will be ‘trapped’ in vulnerable areas and unable to move,
particularly in low income countries.
2. People are as likely to move towards areas of environmental risk
as they are to move away.
3. However, migration can transform people’s ability to cope with
environmental change.
4. What can we do about this: By recognising migration issues in
international policies, policy makers will be more effective in efforts
to help people cope with environmental change:
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International adaptation and development funding
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Long term urban planning.
The project has involved around 350 leading experts and stakeholders
from 30 countries across the world. More than 70 papers and other
reviews of the state of the art of diverse areas of science were
commissioned to inform the analysis.
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USA:
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The White House
AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
USDA
Center for Sustainable Systems
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
The White House Executive Order (2009)
Federal Leadership in Environmental and Energy Performance
Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force
Federal Actions for a Climate Resilient Nation
Extreme weather and other climate change impacts pose significant social,
economic, and environmental risks to the United States and the global
community. The impacts of the climate change are affecting livelihoods,
infrastructure, ecosystems, food production, energy supply, national
security, and the cultural heritage of populations and communities. The
U.S. Government has a responsibility to reduce climate risks to public
health and safety, economic well-being, natural resources, and Federal
programs and services. The Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task
Force`s strategic vision is of a resilient, healthy, and prosperous Nation in
the face of a changing climate. Agencies are taking steps to manage
climate impacts to Federal agency missions, programs, and operations to
ensure that resources are invested wisely and Federal services remain
effective for the American people. Agencies are developing climate
adaptation plans to identify their vulnerabilities and prioritize activities
that reduce climate risk. In addition to domestic impacts, climate change
exacerbates threats to communities, human development, and regional
stability internationally. The impacts of climate change and extreme
weather abroad can have serious economic and security implications for
the United States. Conversely, actions that help countries climate risks
benefit broader U.S. development and foreign policy objectives. The
Federal Government is also committed to bringing its full capacities –
including technical assistance, science, and technology – to support
climate-resilient development programming around the word. The
Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force will provide an update
on Federal adaptation progress in March 2014, following the release of the
2013 National Climate Assessment Synthesis Report. The Interagency
Climate Change Adaptation Task Force will work to align Federal efforts
with those of communities, states, tribes, and regions to reduce the risks
of extreme events and climate impacts through adaptation. These
collective efforts will help advance the Nation toward a sustainable future.
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The 21st century is shaping up to be a challenging one
The core issues that face us are: food, energy, water
The interconnections are embedded in:
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climate change,
biodiversity and ecosystems,
economics,
innovation,
population growth,
renewably energy,
education,
global health,
development,
agriculture.
They are both global in their scope and profoundly interconnected
www.aaas.org
AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
Annual Meeting AAAS Vancouver (2012):
Flattening the World: Building a Global Knowledge Society
The 21st century is shaping up to be a challenging one.
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The issues that face us are many:
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They
climate change,
energy,
agriculture,
health,
water,
biodiversity and ecosystems,
population growth, and
economic development.
are both global in their scope and profoundly interconnected.
Growing the food—and feed and fiber and fuel—demanded by a still
expanding and increasingly affluent human population will require
innovations not just in agriculture, but in water and land management,
food processing and transportation, and many other areas such as
international trade and regulatory policies. Energy drives our economies.
How do we transition to energy sources that do not perturb our climate
and use a disproportionate amount of the water we need for people and
agriculture without taking an economic beating? Decimating what remains
of the tropic’s forests will as surely exacerbate climate change as it will
reduce biodiversity and impact ecosystem services. What do the climatic
warming trends well underway mean for agriculture, for public health, for
the survival of our coastal cities? What does adaptation really entail?
It’s one big thorny tangle: people, money, food, energy, health, water,
land, climate, biodiversity. How do we as scientists, engineers, and policymakers begin to think—and act—on a global scale to address such
complicated, cross-cutting problems? How do we tackle the sheer
complexity of global systems, be they economic, ecological, or
educational? How do we begin to develop truly global models, and then
solutions, through multinational collaborative efforts?
We live in an age of instant global communication, a time when
collaborations between countries and continents have never been easier,
at least from a technical standpoint. A stunning example is the Large
Hadron Collider, the world’s largest and highest-energy particle
accelerator, which is being used by a multinational group of physicists to
understand the fundamental building blocks and laws of nature, from
subatomic to cosmic. Remote sensing technology enables the detailed
observation of virtually every aspect of our planet’s surface, subsurface,
and climate. Stores of information and knowledge can be accessed from
anywhere by anyone. Technology and the Internet are transforming
education. Learning is, in principle, available to everyone everywhere.
The focus of the 2012 meeting, then, is on using the power of electronic
communications and information resources to tackle the complex
problems of the 21st century on a global scale through international,
multidisciplinary efforts.
We have a model already in the scale and scope of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But that’s just the beginning. The
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interconnections among, for example, climate change, agriculture, and
health are as yet poorly understood; predictive modeling is in its infancy.
The ability to approach global problems through global collaborations
depends on an educated populace and on substantial scientific and
technological sophistication throughout the world. Thus building the global
knowledge society depends on advancing education and research, the
engines of the knowledge society, everywhere. This task is facilitated, but
not accomplished, by the existence of electronically accessible open
educational resources. There remain limitations of language and culture,
of poverty and access.
Learn from many of the world's leading experts on the life cycles of matter
and galaxies, unlocking biology's potential, climate change in northern
latitudes, the power of indigenous cultures, and more.
Be informed about how to solve, not just talk about, many of the world's
most complex challenges that impact you and the global community.
USDA (2010):
The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water
Resources, and Biodiversity:
“The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water
Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States” integrates the Federal
research efforts of 13 agencies on climate and global change.
The report focuses on the next 25 to 50 years, and finds that climate
change is already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land
resources, and biodiversity, and will continue to do so.
USDA is using the report’s findings in the development of a new Strategic
Plan for Climate Change research. The Forest Service is integrating
climate change into National Forest Service Management Plans and is
providing guidance to Forest Managers on how to respond and adapt to
climate change. The Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm
Services Agency are encouraging actions to reduce GHG emissions and
increase carbon sequestration through conservation programs. USDA’s
Risk Management Agency has prepared tools to manage drought risks,
and is conducting an assessment of the risks of climate change on the
crop insurance program. USDA is also providing guidance to landowners to
enable them to estimate their greenhouse gas footprints.
SPECIFIC FINDINGS INCLUDE:
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Grain and oilseed crops will mature more rapidly, but increasing
temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures, particularly if
precipitation decreases or becomes more variable.
Higher temperatures will negatively affect livestock. Warmer winters
will reduce mortality but this will be more than offset by greater
mortality in hotter summers. Hotter temperatures will also result in
reduced productivity of livestock and dairy animals.
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Forests in the interior West, the Southwest, and Alaska are already
being affected by climate change with increases in the size and
frequency of forest fires, insect outbreaks and tree mortality. These
changes are expected to continue.
Much of the United States has experienced higher precipitation and
streamflow, with decreased drought severity and duration, over the
20th century. The West and Southwest, however, are notable
exceptions, and increased drought conditions have occurred in these
regions.
Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO². Under
projections reported in the assessment, weeds migrate northward
and are less sensitive to herbicide applications.
There is a trend toward reduced mountain snowpack and earlier
spring snowmelt runoff in the Western United States.
Horticultural crops (such as tomato, onion, and fruit) are more
sensitive to climate change than grains and oilseed crops.
Young forests on fertile soils will achieve higher productivity from
elevated atmospheric CO² concentrations. Nitrogen deposition and
warmer temperatures will increase productivity in other types of
forests where water is available.
Invasion by exotic grass species into arid lands will result from
climate change, causing an increased fire frequency. Rivers and
riparian systems in arid lands will be negatively impacted.
A continuation of the trend toward increased water use efficiency
could help mitigate the impacts of climate change on water
resources.
The growing season has increased by 10 to 14 days over the last
19 years across the temperate latitudes.
Species’ distributions have also shifted.
The rapid rates of warming in the Arctic observed in recent decades,
and projected for at least the next century, are dramatically
reducing the snow and ice covers that provide denning and foraging
habitat for polar bears.
USDA (2010):
Adapting to climate change
Climate stresses have real consequences for food production, affecting the
yields of staple foods crops and threatening livelihoods. The effects of
climate change are complex and far-reaching. It is for this reason that the
USDA is developing a forward-looking policy for adaptation to climate
change. USDA is working with the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation
Task Force to implement a strategy for ensuring scientific information
about climate change and adaptation options.
USDA (2010):
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USDA Climate Change Science Plan
The overarching objective of the Science Plan is to incorporate the
management of climate change challenges and opportunities into the
scientific missions of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Credible, validated, and effective climate change science and technology
made easily available to internal and external USDA customers and
stakeholders on scales relevant to decision making.
USDA has identified four priority elements concerning climate change.
These elements encompass concerns and information requirements
identified by USDA agency representatives, customers, stakeholders, and
collaborators.
Element 1: understand the direct and indirect effects of climate change on
natural and managed ecosystems, including feedbacks to the climate
system.
 Element 2: develop knowledge, institutional models, and tools to
enable adaptation to climate change and to improve the resilience of
natural and ecosystems.
 Element 3: develop knowledge and tools to enhance the contribution
of agriculture, forestry, grassland, wetlands, and other land
management practices to mitigate atmospheric greenhouse gas
emissions.
 Element 4: provide science-based decision support information and
tools to USDA agencies, stakeholders and collaborators to improve
decision and policy making.
The issue of climate change is complex and affects multiple USDA mission
areas and agencies. Several agencies within the Department have a role
conducting research and supporting climate change science. Each agency
will prepare a Climate Change Science Implementation Plan that will
include specific performance measures and will build on the elements and
priorities outlined in this document.
The White House Council on Environmental Quality Interagency Climate
Change Adaptation Task Force has recommended that Federal agencies
develop regional climate change adaptation consortia to harmonize the
efforts of decision makers and information providers.
Mathematical models are necessary to predict future climate changes and
the quantitative responses by natural and managed populations and
ecosystems.
Communication of climate change research outcomes, technologies, and
policies to the broadest possible audience will require outreach by all
USDA agencies to ensure that the benefits of USDA climate change
activities are realized by the Nation and the international community.
To be responsive to public demands, USDA scientific climate change
efforts, including research, education, and extension, will need to ensure
that there are clear pathways from research to operational support.
USDA will also encourage development of new methods, models, and
other resources that facilitate economic analysis and decision-making
under conditions of uncertainty, and integration and interpretation of
information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision
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context. This effort will include supporting and improving existing models
and decision support mechanism.USDA (2010):
Energy use in the U.S. food system
A number of studies over the past four decades have examined foodrelated energy use in the United States. Taken together, these studies
indicate that food-related energy use has remained a substantial share of
the national energy budget, that food-related energy use of households
has been the largest among supply chain stages, and that food-related
energy flows may have increased significantly over the past decade.
These results, however, do not explain why energy use has changed over
time. The report provides policymakers and analysts with information to
assess which stages of the food supply chain and what industries are the
largest energy users, which stages and industries have experienced the
fastest rates of energy-use growth, what factors have influenced increases
in energy use in the food sector, and what factors are likely to influence
changes in the future. Findings suggest that about half of the growth in
food related energy use between 1997 and 2002is explained by a shift
from human labour toward a greater reliance on energy services across
nearly all food expenditure categories. Household operations accounted
for the highest food-related energy use. Food related energy use based on
the total U.S. energy consumption as a share of the national energy
budget grew to 15,7 percent. Although energy prices are high and volatile,
households and the foodservice industry continue to outsource food
preparation through the purchase of prepared foods with high energy-use
requirements.
Center for Sustainable Systems (2000):
Life Cycle-Based Sustainability Indicators for Assessment of the U.S. food
system
Multiple threats to the long-term vitality of the U.S. food system
demonstrate that the current system is not economically, socially, or
environmentally sustainable. In general, a sustainable system is one that
can be maintained at a certain state or quality on a long-term horizon. Life
cycle assessment provides a system-based accounting of material and
energy inputs and outputs at all stages of the life cycle: acquisition of raw
materials, production, processing, packaging, use, and retirement. This
holistic assessment provides an environmental profile of the product
system.
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Akademie der Wissenschaften der USA (2010):
Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit unter Einfluss des Klimawandels
Die Akademie der Wissenschaften der USA hat eine Zusammenfassung
über weltweit ausgearbeitete Studien über NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit unter Einfluss des Klimawandels vorgelegt
Die Autoren analysieren die vier Dimensionen der NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit (Produktion, Stabilität, Nutzung und Zugang) unter
Einfluss des Klimawandels weltweit. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels wird
als signifikant bewertet.
Im ersten Kapitel analysieren die Autoren die Produktion, die Stabilität der
Verfügbarkeit, die Nutzung und den Zugang zu Nahrungsmittel, im
zweiten Kapitel wird eine quantitative Bewertung des Einflusses des
Klimawandels auf die Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit
unternommen und im dritten Kapitel werden die Unsicherheiten, die
Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der Vorhersagemodelle beschrieben. Die
Schlussfolgerung rundet die Ausführungen ab.
I. Klimawandel und Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit
a.) Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Produktion von Nahrungsmitteln
Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Nahrungsmittelproduktion und auf
die Verfügbarkeit von Nahrungsmittel ist direkt und indirekt und
gebietsweise uneinheitlich. Änderungen der Temperatur und des
Niederschlages verbunden mit Emissionen von Treibhausgasen wird
Änderungen der Bodenqualität und der Ernteerträge nach sich ziehen. Die
durchschnittliche Erwärmung der Erdoberfläche wird je nach Szenario
zwischen 1,8 Grad C und 4,0 Grad C um das Jahr 2100 angegeben. In den
gemäßigten Zonen bringt die Erwärmung der Erdoberfläche Vorteile für die
Landwirtschaft, in dem Mediterranen Raum durch die Ausdehnung der
Dürreperioden wiederum Nachteile. Die Trockengebiete werden noch
trockener und dadurch für den Anbau von Feldfrüchten völlig ungeeignet.
Durch die höheren Temperaturen wird der Schädlingsbefall zunehmen, die
die Winter mit höheren Temperaturen überleben und im Frühjahr dann
massiv die Pflanzenkulturen befallen.
Die Zunahme der Kohlendioxidkonzentration der Erdatmosphäre
beeinflusst auch massiv die landwirtschaftliche Produktion. Die
Vorhersageszenarien erwarten eine Steigerung der
Kohlendioxidkonzentration der Erdatmosphäre von derzeit 379 ppm auf
zwischen 550 ppm bis 800 ppm um das Jahr 2100. Die Erträge werden
dadurch bei Weizen, Reis und Sojabohne zwischen 10 % und 20 %, bei
Mais zwischen 0 % und 10 % steigen. Der Eiweißgehalt wird dagegen
sinken.
Das bebaubare Ackerland wird in den entwickelten Ländern um 160
Millionen Hektar ausgedehnt (die größte Ausdehnung in Russland, Ukraine
und Zentralasien). Dagegen werden die Entwicklungsländer vor allem die
Sub - Sahara Region massiv benachteiligt. Insgesamt werden die
Entwicklungsländer 130 Millionen Hektar an bebaubarem Ackerland
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verlieren und nur 20 gewinnen, das bedeutet einen Nettoverlust von 110
Millionen Hektar bis um das Jahr 2100.
b.) Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Stabilität der Verfügbarkeit von
Nahrungsmitteln
Neben den langfristigen Trends wie im Punkt a.) analysiert, werden auch
kurzfristige Wetterschwankungen, wie Überschwemmungen, Zyklone,
Hagel und Dürreperioden die Ernte regional zunehmend beeinträchtigen.
In Folge wird die regionale Stabilität der Verfügbarkeit von
Nahrungsmitteln starken Schwankungen unterworfen. Die kurzfristigen
Wetterschwankungen werden am stärksten gerade in den Weltregionen
auftreten, welche auch von den langfristigen Negativeffekten am meisten
betroffen werden.
c.) Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Nutzung von Nahrungsmitteln
In diesem Teil der Studie analysieren die Autoren den zusätzlich
auftretenden Druck durch Schädlingsbefall, Beeinträchtigung der
Wasserqualität und Lebensmittelvergiftungen auf Nahrungsmittel. Auch
die Ausbreitung der durch Malaria befallenen Gebiete wird in Betracht
gezogen. Dieses Kapitel beschreibt auch die zusätzliche Anfälligkeit der
Menschen gegen Krankheiten, welche durch den Verzehr von
beeinträchtigten Lebensmitteln verursacht werden. Höhere Temperaturen
begünstigen der Tendenz nach Nahrungsmittelvergiftungen, wie
Salmonellose und Durchfallserkrankungen. Häufiger auftretende extreme
Regenfälle begünstigen Überschwemmungen, die wiederum in weiten
Gebieten der Erde, vor allem wo die Trennung zwischen Nutzwasser und
Abwasser nicht ausreichend gesichert ist, das Auftreten von
Choleraerkrankungen begünstigt.
d.) Einfluss des Klimawandels auf den Zugang zu Nahrungsmitteln
Der Zugang zu Nahrungsmittel wird von den Autoren als die Möglichkeit
der Menschen, der Gemeinden, der Länder, also das Anrecht aller auf
Nahrungsmittel in ausreichender Menge, guter Qualität und gesunder
Beschaffenheit, definiert.
In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten begünstigte der Anstieg des
Volkseinkommens kombiniert mit niedrigen Preisen für Lebensmittel
weltweit den Rückgang des Hungers. Diesen Erfolg zu halten und noch zu
verbessern wird mit Berücksichtigung der vorhin gesagten und der
Zunahme der Weltbevölkerung auf 9 Milliarden in 2050 eine enorme
Herausforderung. Die weiteren Bevölkerungsprognosen gehen bis zum
Jahr 2080 und liegen bei 13,6 Milliarden Menschen, davon 11,6 Milliarden
in den Entwicklungsländern. Und dieser überwiegende Teil der
Weltbevölkerung lebt dann wiederum in Regionen, welche durch vielfältige
Risiken zunehmend beeinträchtigt werden.
Einige Experten versuchen auch die Preisentwicklung für die
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Nahrungsmittel für so einen weiten Zeitraum zu prognostizieren, weil die
Entwicklung der Konsumentenpreise auch darüber mitentscheidet, ob
genügend Haushaltseinkommen zur Verfügung steht, was wiederum über
die Möglichkeit des Zuganges zu Nahrungsmittel in ausreichender Menge,
guter Qualität und gesunder Beschaffenheit entscheidet.
II. Quantitative Bewertung des Klimawandels auf die NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit
Die Simulationsmodelle in diesem Kapitel beinhalten die Auswirkungen,
welche aus dem kombinierten Effekt der Erwärmung der Erdoberfläche
und des Anstieges der Kohlendioxidkonzentration der Erdatmosphäre
folgen.
Es werden fünf Feststellungen gefolgert:
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Die Wahrscheinlichkeit wird höher, dass die Anzahl der
Menschen, die einer steigenden Unsicherheit der
Nahrungsmittel-Versorgung entgegensehen, wachsen wird,
Es wird erwartet, dass die sozio- ökonomischen Einflüsse
sogar noch einen wesentlich größeren Einfluss auf die
Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit haben werden, als der
Klimawandel selbst,
Die Sub-Sahara Region wird am meisten unsicher in Hinblick
auf die Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit,
Der Anstieg der Kohlendioxidkonzentration der Erdatmosphäre
hat einen wesentlich geringeren Effekt auf die NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit als die Erwärmung der Erdoberfläche,
Die Maßnahmen, die auf eine Stabilisierung des Klimawandels
zielen, werden insgesamt sehr positiv auf den Ackerbau
auswirken, diese jetzt gesetzten oder bald zu setzende
Maßnahmen werden aber erst in der zweiten Hälfte des
Jahrhunderts wirksam.
III. Unsicherheiten, Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der Vorhersagemodelle
Die Autoren betonen, dass es wünschenswert wäre, Wahrscheinlichkeiten
über die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels in die Modellberechnungen
einzubauen um den politisch Verantwortlichen zu unterstützen,
Entscheidungen für notwendige Maßnahmen zu begründen.
IV. Schlussfolgerung
Nachhaltiges Wirtschaften mit verstärkten Investitionen in Forschung und
Entwicklung werden am Wesentlichsten dazu beitragen, die
Herausforderungen, die aus dem Klimawandel für die NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit resultieren, zu meistern.
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The National Academies, Advisors to the Nation on Science, Engineering
and Medicine Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Agriculture and
Natural Resources (2010):
21st Century Systems Agriculture
An Update of the 1989 NRC Report "Alternative Agriculture"
In an update of the report, Alternative Agriculture, an NRC committee will
study the science and policies that influence the adoption of farming
practices and management systems designed to reduce the costs and
environmental effects of agricultural production. A set of case-studies will
be used to examine farming systems that address those concerns and to
explore the factors that affect their implementation, economic viability,
and success in meeting environmental and other goals of sustainability.
Although there are many systems of farming that are directed toward
reducing costs and environmental impacts, the study will focus on food
and fiber production that systematically pursues:
 Greater incorporation of natural processes such as nutrient cycles,
nitrogen fixation, and pest-predator relationships into the production
process;
 Reduction in the use of off-farm inputs and release of farming by products (pollution) with the greatest potential to harm the
environment or the health of farmers and consumers;
 Greater productive use of the biological and genetic potential of
plant and animal species;
 Improvement of the match between cropping patterns and the
productive potential and limitations of agricultural lands to ensure
long-term sustainability of current production levels and resiliency
under projected climate change conditions;
 Profitable and efficient production, with emphasis on improved farm
management and conservation of soil, water, energy, and biological
resources.
Drawing on scientific, economic, agriculture, and other literature, the
study will:
 Review the state of scientific and economic knowledge of farming
practices and systems of management that meet the criteria above
to identify the most promising findings and determine what
additional research is needed;
 Examine the potential for a systems-approach to farming to
contribute to national economic, environmental, social, and public
health goals and explore how other nations have pursued these
goals in the context of agricultural sustainability ;
 Identify and evaluate the factors, including structural changes in
agribusiness, changing consumer preferences and market
incentives, international trade, environmental impacts, and
government programs and policies that influence the adoption of
farming practices and systems that contribute to those goals.
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In addition to gaining information from the literature, the committee will
carry out a detailed examination of individual production systems,
including several described in the 1989 report. A retrospective look at
those farming operations will reveal whether the economic and other
intended benefits of the practices and systems in place at that time have
met their potential or have otherwise been challenged over the years.
Additional case studies that represent unique production systems or
incorporate novel practices, including examples from outside of the United
State, will also be explored.
At the conclusion of its study, the committee will produce a
comprehensive report of its findings on the science and policy influences
on systems-based agriculture.
The report will include:
 An overview of the current dimensions of U.S. agriculture in both
the domestic and world economies;
 A description of problems in the farm economy and challenges in
agricultural production that are driving changes in approaches to
farm management in the U.S. and abroad;
 An update of the 1989 report's review of the economics of
alternative farming systems and of methods used to develop cost
and productivity comparisons at different levels of analysis, such as
the level of individual components of an enterprise, the level of the
whole farm, or regional, national, and international levels;
 An analysis of progress made in the scientific understanding of
systems farming and of the scientific evidence for the contribution of
specific practices to the objectives of maintaining yields, conserving
soil, maintaining water quality, among other goals.
 Detailed descriptions of the case-studies, including general
information about the production operation and its physical and
capital, features of the management systems being used, and
indicators of productivity , environmental, and financial
performance. For case-studies described in the 1989 report, the
description will include a retrospective review of the past
performance and the evolution of decision-making by those
producers over time.
Supported by the findings and conclusions of the study, the committee will
recommend research and development needs for advancing a systemsapproach to farming and suggest ways to strengthen federal policies and
programs related to improving agricultural production while reducing its
impact on the environment.
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (2012):
Ensuring food and nutrition security in a green economy
IFPRI Policy Brief 21
As the population continues to grow and natural resources become
scarcer, the need to shift toward an environmentally responsible, socially
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accountable, more equitable, and “greener” economy has become
increasingly apparent.
Food and nutrition security remains under stress. For the 900 million
undernourished people in the world and the more than 2 billion people
suffering from micronutrient deficiency, the poor management and
increasing scarcity of natural resources like water, arable land, and energy
make the production of and access to adequate, nutritious food difficult.
With higher incomes, emerging middle classes in developing countries can
afford to consume more fruits and vegetables and, in particular, more
meat, which requires much more water and land to produce. In addition,
as people demand more perishable and processed foods, food safety risks
along the supply chain increase. These risks may also increase with more
intensive crop and livestock farming through contamination with chemicals
or pathogens.
Intensifying food production can boost the food security of millions of poor
people and help save pristine forests and virgin soil from conversion to
agriculture, as seen during the Green Revolution. However, increasing
food production can also contribute to problems such as land degradation,
water pollution, depletion of water resources, and new pest problems.
These unintended consequences highlight the need for adequate
agricultural extension, effective regulation, careful pricing policies, the
correction of inappropriate incentives, and policy responses that make
intensive agriculture compatible with sustainable management of natural
resources and the environment.
Land degradation—whether in the form of desertification, deforestation,
overgrazing, salinization, or soil erosion—poses a serious threat to longterm food security, especially since arable land is already scarce in Asia
and cultivating land reserves in Latin America and Africa would come at
high environmental and infrastructure costs. In fact, most land
degradation throughout the past 30 years occurred in developing
countries, compromising future agricultural productivity growth in these
areas.
Projections suggest that by 2050 water scarcity could reduce cereal
production potential by more than 10 percent, not taking into account
other yield-reducing factors.
It has been estimated that the agriculture sector is responsible for up to
30 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, which directly contribute
to climate change.
In addition to unsustainable natural-resource use, other human actions
can cause environmental changes that threaten food security and the
stability of the planet’s environment. Apart from climate change these
include chemical pollution or biodiversity loss. Some of these changes are
argued to already compromise the safe operation of the earth’s
ecosystems and threaten human welfare and agricultural productivity.
Agriculture in a green economy has immense potential to address the
unsustainable use of natural resources for food production.
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Innovations in biological sciences, resource management, and agricultural
processes will be essential to increase productivity and resource-use
efficiency in a green economy.
The application of modern biotechnology in crop breeding has shown how
life sciences can contribute to agriculture and under which conditions
smallholders can benefit. This technology also holds potential to help
address other challenges, such as improving nitrogen-use efficiency of
crops. Novel technologies also include nanotechnology, which has barely
been explored for agricultural uses.
Likewise, innovative policies and investments will be needed to help
agriculture adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change, and
policymakers will need more evidence on agricultural innovation systems
to make more informed decisions.
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Schweiz:

SBV Schweizerischer Bauernverband
SBV Schweizerischer Bauernverband (2010):
Weltweite Ernährungstrends und ihre Bedeutung für die schweizerische
Versorgungssicherheit;
Entwicklungen und Prognosen zur Nahrungsmittelproduktion und zum
Nahrungsmittelkonsum
2050 wird die Bevölkerung in der Schweiz neun Millionen betragen. Damit
wächst auch die Nachfrage nach landwirtschaftlichen Produkten. Die
Schweiz wenig Ackerfläche, und trotz hoher Getreideerträge eine tiefe ProKopf-Getreideproduktion. Der schweizer Pro-Kopf-Konsum liegt deutlich
über dem weltweiten, insbesondere bei den tierischen Produkten.
Gemessen an verwertbarer Energie, benötigt die Schweiz 39.000
Terajoule (=10,8 Milliarden Kilowattstunden) Nahrungsmittelenergie
Die Schweiz importiert 40 % der benötigten Nahrungsmittel. Der
Nettoselbstversorgungsgrad (Abzug der importierten Futtermittel) der
Schweiz liegt etwa bei 54 %. Die Abhängigkeit der Schweiz vom Ausland
ist folglich hoch. Völlige Importabhängigkeit besteht bei Treibstoffen.
Die Knappheit wird allmählich zur Norm. Die landwirtschaftliche
Produktion muss rationell, nachhaltig und maßvoll gestaltet werden. Dazu
sind auch Maßnahmen notwendig, die die Kulturlandverlust wirksam
bremsen.
Für die Schweiz stellt sich die Frage, ob das Land eine noch größere
Auslandsabhängigkeit anstreben soll oder nicht.
SBV Schweizerischer Bauernverband (2010):
Menü 2050 - Müssen wir uns um unser Essen sorgen?
Situationsbericht 2010
Als kleines Land ist die Schweiz noch stärker als viele andere Staaten in
die globale Wirtschaft integriert und für die eigene Versorgung vom
Ausland abhängig. Die schweizer Bevölkerung hat sich für den Weg der
Unabhängigkeit entschieden, bedacht darauf, ihre Souveränität und damit
auch ihre Eigenheiten zu erhalten. In Anbetracht der globalen Entwicklung
und der speziellen Situation der Schweiz setzt sich der SBV dafür ein, dass
sich die schweizer Landwirtschaft in Richtung einer vernünftigen
Ernährungssouveränität weiterentwickelt.
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